TheWisestofAll wrote:LarryWx wrote:My biggest hope is that any well above normal season in activity is like 2010, when the CONUS got off largely unscathed. The fact that 2010 is an analog for at least a couple of the main forecasters is giving me at least some hope.
As far as I can tell, 2010 is an analog by virtue of its ENSO evolution and extremely warm Tropical Atlantic configuration, not because of potential storm track or the other elements that govern the latter.
I fully realize that. Indeed, 2010 isn’t listed as an analog based on tracks. But it is still an ENSO/warm tropical Atlantic analog listed by at least two well-known forecasters that ended up very active but with little impact on the lower 48. So, based especially on 2010, here’s to hoping for a break since getting a break wouldn’t be far-fetched. Track tendencies are difficult to forecast as they vary so much. I’m not actually predicting another 2010 but rather am hoping for it. If I were to now predict a 2010 like season among the other analogs, that would be a wishcast unless I had other data/info to go on. But rather than a wishcast it is simply a wish.