Joe B. is right on.

[LA Storm Tracker]

Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather looks to score again with his 2004 Hurricane Season Tropical Landfall prediction. His top three landfall areas for this year were 1) Carolina coast, 2) western Florida, and 3) Texas. Lets see. Carolina has been hit (outer banks). Florida is expected two in the next couple of days. And Texas? Joe B. is hinting about something in the Atlantic coming across next week. Can you say, "Go west, Atlantic Ridge"!. With the trough predicted to pull out of the SE US by the beginning of next week, the Atlantic Ridge is forecasted to build westward. So something that crosses the Atlantic may have a more westward component to it. We will have wait and see.

[Guest]

WOW a forecast for a landfall for the carolina coast?

surely you are kidding .... who would of thunk it? I mean when was the last time that happens? It must of been a year ago!

and west FL.... when was the last time that happens?

[wx247]

LOL DT.

[southerngale]

and west FL.... when was the last time that happens?

Henri last September I believe.

[Steve]

The difference DT is that he assigned landfall intensity values to each of the regions he specified from Brownsville to Newfoundland. So unless you put out something a little better, you ought not be so cocky. Something about some of the weather-weenies on this board that brings out a bunch of testosterone that's usually uncalled for. Joe may be right, he may be wrong. We'll see how he did by November. I know Ortt disagreed with the methodology (and also ascribing pressure to values), but it's quantifiable if nothing else.

Steve

[Valkhorn]

The difference DT is that he assigned landfall intensity values to each of the regions he specified from Brownsville to Newfoundland. So unless you put out something a little better, you ought not be so cocky. Something about some of the weather-weenies on this board that brings out a bunch of testosterone that's usually uncalled for. Joe may be right, he may be wrong. We'll see how he did by November. I know Ortt disagreed with the methodology (and also ascribing pressure to values), but it's quantifiable if nothing else.

*claps* Thanks Steve!

You're right, I've never seen DT, Ortt, or any of the others on this board stick their neck out as far as JB has, and is continuing to do. I've also not seen a quantifyable intensity forecast from anyone else so far, and actually it's pretty well done.

For those who argue he's only going along with climatology, well I haven't really seen anything better from those that argue. So if you have something better, why don't you put it out?

[Steve]

LOL. I didn't mean to come off sounding like a prong or anything, but I just don't get all that animosity. Bayou Ventreaux and I traded some PM's on this very topic yesterday so I guess it was still fresh in my mind. Nobody's perfect, certainly not Bastardi (who will be the first to tell you that). He can be pretty stubborn and since he puts out 50,000 words a week (most of which deal with predictions of one sort or another) a quantifable amount is going to be wrong. But just the same, plenty of it will be right. Some opine that he just throws a bunch of stuff out there and over-hypes everything, and maybe that plays into his style. I get that he's probably even more influenced by weather events than most of us are (whether they affect him or not), so he just gets excited.

But what I find funny is how any thread that mentions him gets more looks than almost anything else. So in my mind, he's a lightning rod (both for + and - energy). I guess some people have legitimate beefs. D.O. for instance has mentioned many times that he doesn't like AccuWeather's treatment of newly graduated mets. That's cool. Others just seem to have a beef borne out of jealousy or the fact that Joe's getting paid for doing what we all do - exchange weather ideas. I get bashed over the head all the time by Dericho who has me lumped in with plenty of Joe's parrots. I'm not going to rehash my thoughts on that, they've appeared 10 times on S2K. But it's still amusing to a layman how some of these guys just go ballistic whenever Bastardi's name is mentioned.

Steve

[Steve Cosby]

OK, Here are some paraphrased excerpts from the master hisself (paraphrased because of copyrights).

(Begin paraphrased quotes)
Joe says that he disowned the Texas hurricane idea but now acknowledges that (his favorite model), the European is pushing it.

He talks about one problem that can arise now is something he called the "reverse eddy situation under the fast stream trying to pick it up".

He then says that this means two things: first that the eventual track is a "tad bit more uncertain". Secondly, he thinks it could me the storm explodes and is near Cat 3 status by the edge of Cuba.

He thinks if Charley slows to below 10 mph tomorrow then "Houston, we may indeed have a problem."

Finally, he says that he's never seen the European flip out like this.

(end paraphrased quotes)

You gotta love JB's humor. I figure I can get away with fully quoting his ending:

Given the situation, there is only one solution..

Mow the lawn

Dang for now ******

[The Dark Knight]

LOL....

[bahamaswx]

Whether it goes along with climatology or not, you can't blame the guy for being right.

[Guest]

STEVE

you are right. I didnt mean anything by it... Just having a little fun JB is an extremely skilled forecaster and very knowledgeable. Come NOV I have NO doubt -- NONE -- that JB hurricane forecast will be VERY good...

IMO his hurricane forecast is Far better and makes far more sense than the statistical prob values that Dr gray uses.

The difference DT is that he assigned landfall intensity values to each of the regions he specified from Brownsville to Newfoundland. So unless you put out something a little better, you ought not be so cocky. Something about some of the weather-weenies on this board that brings out a bunch of testosterone that's usually uncalled for. Joe may be right, he may be wrong. We'll see how he did by November. I know Ortt disagreed with the methodology (and also ascribing pressure to values), but it's quantifiable if nothing else.

Steve

[Stormsfury]

OK, Here are some paraphrased excerpts from the master hisself (paraphrased because of copyrights).

(Begin paraphrased quotes)
Joe says that he disowned the Texas hurricane idea but now acknowledges that (his favorite model), the European is pushing it.

Coulda swore his favorite was the UKMET ...

He talks about one problem that can arise now is something he called the "reverse eddy situation under the fast stream trying to pick it up".

Huh?

He then says that this means two things: first that the eventual track is a "tad bit more uncertain". Secondly, he thinks it could me the storm explodes and is near Cat 3 status by the edge of Cuba.

The ULL/trough that's been carved out by a parent s/w ridge leaving Bonnie to the east and the s/w ridge over Charley better push out the way ... fast ...

He thinks if Charley slows to below 10 mph tomorrow then "Houston, we may indeed have a problem."

Finally, he says that he's never seen the European flip out like this.

Bonnie seems to be already forming a long feeder band which could end up panning out as a elongated SW/NE trough as the system continues moving NE ... right now, the apparent shear is coming over Bonnie from the WEST ... and not the SW ...

Bonnie's still moving and appears to be gaining some speed but a little more right than previously thought ... and the system SHOULD continue to gain forward monentum, and thusly ... lessen the RELATIVE SHEAR ...

SF

[Stormsfury]

To add, I still believe Charley has the potential to still become a major hurricane ... but IMHO, it'll have to do so in the E GOM as the upper low in the W Caribbean pulls west and as a recurvature begins with Charley, also faces less overall shear ...

SF

[Steve]

No problem DT. I respect you and your opinions. Some of the other pot-shooters are a different story. Like I said, I didn't mean to come off like a prong (hopefully a nice way to say it).

Steve

[Steve Cosby]

Coulda swore his favorite was the UKMET ...

Nope, Euro during tropical season.

On the eddy thing, I didn't understand it at all.