Tropics Today. 5-5-05 edition

[chadtm80]

First I want to say sorry for the cheesy look of the map.. I saved in the wrong format and it realy screwed me up




A couple of models actually try to spin up a subtropical type stomr from that low that I have currently marked on the map just West of Florida in the gulf

[x-y-no]

A couple of models actually try to spin up a subtropical type stomr from that low that I have currently marked on the map just West of Florida in the gulf

Yep. Here's today's 12Z run of the GFS for the same verification date/time:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_048.shtml

and 24 hours later:


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_072.shtml


Most of the precipitation stays off shore, but at least it looks like a rough couple of days for the fishing fleet.

Jan

[chadtm80]

Yes Jan.. Very interesting.. Gale warnings will be going up for sure

[chadtm80]

If you look at the floater you can see the "twist" from the low off the west coast of Florida.. Look where I drew the L in on the top graphic.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[LarryWx]

Here along the GA coast, as well as just offshore, there is a steady rain along with pretty strong NE winds and quite cool air temp.'s in the low to mid 60's, well below normal. We've received close to 2" and, in some cases, 3" on the upper GA coast with rain still falling and more to come.
The SST's near and a bit offshore the GA coast are in the 65-67F range, which is ~6-7F (~3.5C-4C) below normal for this time of year. Today's weather is helping to keep them cool. It will be interesting to see if cool SST anomalies hold through the summer, which would tend to somewhat hold down the potential strength of any major hurricane, especially slow moving, that were to visit this area.

[MGC]

Without a doubt low pressure in the GOM off Ceder Key headed ENE to NE. Doubt it becomes ST though. If it takes the expected track up the EC is might become quite interesting up that way....MGC

[vbhoutex]

Without a doubt low pressure in the GOM off Ceder Key headed ENE to NE. Doubt it becomes ST though. If it takes the expected track up the EC is might become quite interesting up that way....MGC

Looking at the visible loop- http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes - what I see is the low definitely forming well to the West of Cedar Key and the trough and associated convection moving ENE-NE. Also if you watch the area off the N. GA. coast you can pick out the turning of the low that appears to be forming there also. Not really expecting anything tropical or sub-tropical out of this but it could become a very wet and probably interesting next 24-72 hours for FL and parts of the SE and/or E coast. I am saying this without any looks at the models-only what I have seen others say they are showing. Stealing my time to look at the sat loops before I have to get back to the real world of work!

[LarryWx]

So do you guys expect any sub-tropical development with this system at all? lol, just wondering cause I live on Florida's SW Coast. We've gotten some strong storms and winds over the last 36 hours so...

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL

I say no. The atmosphere/SST's are way too cool. It is more like a winter day than summer day today here on the GA coast. This is a strong extratropical system.

[x-y-no]

So do you guys expect any sub-tropical development with this system at all? lol, just wondering cause I live on Florida's SW Coast. We've gotten some strong storms and winds over the last 36 hours so...

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL

I say no. The atmosphere/SST's are way too cool. It is more like a winter day than summer day today here on the GA coast. This is a strong extratropical system.

Yes, I agree.

[wxcrazytwo]

However, I have been looking at some sites and I see part of the gulf warming up nicely. Also, just south of the keys, it appears to be above 80 degrees. Is this any signal of a sudden warm up in the gulf as well as the atlantic?

[HURAKAN]

So do you guys expect any sub-tropical development with this system at all? lol, just wondering cause I live on Florida's SW Coast. We've gotten some strong storms and winds over the last 36 hours so...

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL

I say no. The atmosphere/SST's are way too cool. It is more like a winter day than summer day today here on the GA coast. This is a strong extratropical system.

Yes, I agree.

Nothing tropical to talk about, lets talk extratropical for the next days with this system. I agree.

[James]

Didn't the Gulf warm rapidly last year after being cooler than normal for some time?

[Anonymous]

Didn't the Gulf warm rapidly last year after being cooler than normal for some time?

I am not sure, but that sounds familar.

[chadtm80]

Well if something where to develope into anything at all.. It wont be in the gulf.. By this time tommorow the Low should be on the east side of florida