One more burst?

[rolltide]

Seems to be on the west side. Wonder if this will wrap around the center.

[skysummit]

That's a nice burst! If that were to happen yesterday, she would've gotten her act together!

[Brett Adair]

Looking at my GHCC-Sat program, I do see this cool cloud top burst that is taking place. Looks to be along a channel of enhanced SST's just south of the bay. This thing is going to have to hurry though as I have stated in other posts because if you will look at a satellite loop some of the outflow that is riding northward into MS is already being sheared apart by the trough to the west.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The storm is centered around one LLC. It looks really good to what it has been. That convection is nearly over the system. But 11am est will be the last chance for this to make it.

[Brent]

I don't think it's going to make it... if it hadn't weakened overnight, there's no doubt in my mind it would have been one though.

[baygirl_1]

Hey-- I will not be heartbroken if she doesn't make "it" (hurricane status). That little convective burst is poised to come right over us. She's so close to land. She needs to start playing nice with the natives!
BTW, so far here in West Mobile, it's raining with some gusty winds. If I had to estimate (which I must tell you I am not good at estimating wind speeds), I'd say the gusts are in the low to mid 20's (mph). A few may be getting up to around 30. It's whistling through every so often now. Our little "weather dog" is spending most of the time under the bed and refuses to go out to do his business.

[Brent]

Hey-- I will not be heartbroken if she doesn't make "it" (hurricane status). That little convective burst is poised to come right over us. She's so close to land. She needs to start playing nice with the natives!
BTW, so far here in West Mobile, it's raining with some gusty winds. If I had to estimate (which I must tell you I am not good at estimating wind speeds), I'd say the gusts are in the low to mid 20's (mph). A few may be getting up to around 30. It's whistling through every so often now. Our little "weather dog" is spending most of the time under the bed and refuses to go out to do his business.

Strong TS... Cat 1, you'll not notice a difference.

I don't think the strong TS winds(assuming they exist) will be in Mobile anyway... they will probably be well to the east(Just offshore Apalachicola had a 69 mph gust earlier), possibly staying over water and then weakening and coming ashore.

[baygirl_1]

Strong TS... Cat 1, you'll not notice a difference.
I don't think the strong TS winds(assuming they exist) will be in Mobile anyway... they will probably be well to the east(Just offshore Apalachicola had a 69 mph gust earlier), possibly staying over water and then weakening and coming ashore.

Brent, why do you say that? That convective burst that has been discussed is just South of Mobile County and appears to be heading our way. Shouldn't that contain some of the nastiest weather (unfortunately for us)?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is two sides the weather man inside of me says hurricane hurricane hurricane. But the human in side of me wents to see people be safe in little damage. But when people build cities in hurricane areas what can I do?

[AL Chili Pepper]

Hey-- I will not be heartbroken if she doesn't make "it" (hurricane status). That little convective burst is poised to come right over us. She's so close to land. She needs to start playing nice with the natives!
BTW, so far here in West Mobile, it's raining with some gusty winds. If I had to estimate (which I must tell you I am not good at estimating wind speeds), I'd say the gusts are in the low to mid 20's (mph). A few may be getting up to around 30. It's whistling through every so often now. Our little "weather dog" is spending most of the time under the bed and refuses to go out to do his business.

My 6 month old lab won't go out in the rain unless I go with him. I thought labs were supposed to like the water.

It looks like the GFS has Arlene's number, as it's been showing it getting weaker off the coast for days now.

[HurricaneGirl]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

I know tropical storms don't really have eyes but it almost looks like an eye is there for a second on this loop.

[Brent]

Strong TS... Cat 1, you'll not notice a difference.
I don't think the strong TS winds(assuming they exist) will be in Mobile anyway... they will probably be well to the east(Just offshore Apalachicola had a 69 mph gust earlier), possibly staying over water and then weakening and coming ashore.

Brent, why do you say that? That convective burst that has been discussed is just South of Mobile County and appears to be heading our way. Shouldn't that contain some of the nastiest weather (unfortunately for us)?

Yes... but those winds are NOT strong TS winds. They are at best 40-45 mph sustained. Gusts maybe a little higher... hardly impressive.

[Brent]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

I know tropical storms don't really have eyes but it almost looks like an eye is there for a second on this loop.

Yes it does...

Gaston had a similar feature as it was making landfall, although I don't think this will be upgraded like it was, since, gasp, it actually had winds close to hurricane force near the center.

[Scorpion]

This thing is alot stronger than it looks, judging from my experience at sea(40 knot winds, 55 knot gusts as a minimal TS). Dont fool around with this system. Its gonna have some nasty gusts.

[HurricaneGirl]

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImages/RadarLoop/pie+IAmStealingFromIntellicast.gif

For a brief moment there is actually a completely closed center of circulation.