Official TS Bret

#1 Postby **drezee** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:31 pm

830
WTNT32 KNHC 282328
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS NEAR THE COAST OF
MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BRET. IN ONLY
TWELVE PREVIOUS YEARS SINCE 1851...MOST RECENTLY IN 1986...HAVE TWO
OR MORE TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE MONTH OF JUNE.

AT 7 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 90 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 130
MILES... 210 KM...SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

BRET IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ...8 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER
MOVES INLAND.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...19.9 N... 95.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

#2 Postby **feederband** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:33 pm

2 in June !!!

#3 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:34 pm

Website · #4 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:36 pm

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BRET. IN ONLY
TWELVE PREVIOUS YEARS SINCE 1851...MOST RECENTLY IN 1986...HAVE TWO
OR MORE TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE MONTH OF JUNE.

krysof · #5 Postby **krysof** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:36 pm

Unfortunately Bret's life will be cut short. Sorry Bret.

#6 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:37 pm

krysof wrote:Unfortunately Bret's life will be cut short. Sorry Bret.

Don't think about bad things, enjoy the moment!

#7 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:39 pm

YYYYYEEEEEEEEHHHHAWWWWWW!!!!! Go Bret!!!!!!

Scorpion · #8 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:39 pm

Go Bret!! This season is going to be off the hook!

krysof · #9 Postby **krysof** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:41 pm

So much for having a late season.

Derek Ortt · #10 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:44 pm

2 things:

1. Watch for the 1988 Debby Scenario since this has decided it is time to stop moving

2. This tends to mean we're more likely to have an inactive season rather than an active one since we had 2 forming in June (2003 doesn't count since one was April).

#11 Postby **skysummit** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:47 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:2 things:

1. Watch for the 1988 Debby Scenario since this has decided it is time to stop moving

Wait Derek....what do you mean by this????

Website · #12 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:48 pm

Debby 1988:

rainstorm · #13 Postby **rainstorm** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:48 pm

thats true derek, in the seasons where 2 june named storms formed, they average below normal

Derek Ortt · #14 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:48 pm

debby went from a weak TD to a cane in 24 hours.

I dont think this has the time to pull a stunt like that, but if it slows much more, it will have more time

Scorpion · #15 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:50 pm

All factors seem to be pointing to an early and above average Cape Verde season.

#16 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:53 pm

Each season is different - climatology and analogs only suggest what
has happened in similar years.

We've got record oceanic heat early in the year, I suspect NOAA
and Dr. Grey will be about right on.

Website · #17 Postby **Brent** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:55 pm

dhweather wrote:Each season is different - climatology and analogs only suggest what
has happened in similar years.

We've got record oceanic heat early in the year, I suspect NOAA
and Dr. Grey will be about right on.

I agree... I'll be stunned if we have a below average or even average year(10 named storms) with all these factors in place.

Derek Ortt · #18 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:00 pm

justw ant to caution you in one thing

since 1995, the averages are 14/8/4 those are the numbers we should be using for averages, not the 10/6/2/ since the 14/8/4/ are for the recent active cycle

Guest · #19 Postby **Guest** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:01 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:2 things:

1. Watch for the 1988 Debby Scenario since this has decided it is time to stop moving

2. This tends to mean we're more likely to have an inactive season rather than an active one since we had 2 forming in June (2003 doesn't count since one was April).

We only have a lil over 100 years of storm records to support your view, however we dont have the ability to know what is common over 500 yrs, 1000, etc. I understand how you are determining your answer, just dont beleive it will hold this year. This not a prelude to a active or inactive.

artist · #20 Postby **artist** » Tue Jun 28, 2005 7:09 pm

Derek- how did the sea surface temps compare those 2 years versus this year so far?

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