SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic #3

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 75&start=0



Thread #1 above

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 83&start=0



Thread #2 above

Ok folks here is the third thread about this theme so go ahead and post the distint graphics.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Latest sst's
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 0atsst.png


May 10th 2005
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 0atsst.png


The big differnce is 2005 had sst's warmer farther north to the east. This year that area is about 5 to 8 degrees to the south.


link
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/trinan ... &year=2005

[Aquawind]

That and the GOM is warmer.. Which is of course a concern for the GOMers. Feeling like summer here in Florida. We should throw a party for Mr Shear and hope is passes out and justs chills in the GOM for the season bacause it looks like the the waters are already rockin.

[txwatcher91]

Heat content in the Caribbean is similar to last year at this time.
Heat content May 10,2005
Heat content May 10,2006

The GOM is MUCH warmer.
Heat content May 10,2005
Heat content May 10,2006

[CHRISTY]

Guys this is very disturbing i have been watching the gulf of mexico sst's for a couple of days now and a couple of days ago i noticed a red spot near the yucatan and it wasn't that large but tonight i looked at this map and iam still in shock of whats going on look at the 80 plus temperatures near the yucatan really spreading in the gulf my fear is if this continues when the heart of the season comes we are going to have serious trouble in our hands..

[SouthFloridawx]

Yep pretty amazing stuff and even the caribbean has warmed since yester when you posted that graphic.

[benny]

Guys this is very disturbing i have been watching the gulf of mexico sst's for a couple of days now and a couple of days ago i noticed a red spot near the yucatan and it wasn't that large but tonight i looked at this map and iam still in shock of whats going on look at the 80 plus temperatures near the yucatan really spreading in the gulf my fear is if this continues when the heart of the season comes we are going to have serious trouble in our hands..

I could say this until I am blue in the face.. but SSTs in the Gulf during the heart of hurricane season are ALWAYS warm enough for hurricanes. Never fails. Doesn't matter whether the water temps are 84 or 88 or 90. You can get Cat 5 hurricanes with SSTs near 84F. anything beyond that is just a little something extra that I don't think the hurricane can use for maximum winds. It might chance how fast it develops... or the wind structure a little.. Wind shear controls the intensities of GOM hurricane, not instability...

[CHRISTY]

Guys this is very disturbing i have been watching the gulf of mexico sst's for a couple of days now and a couple of days ago i noticed a red spot near the yucatan and it wasn't that large but tonight i looked at this map and iam still in shock of whats going on look at the 80 plus temperatures near the yucatan really spreading in the gulf my fear is if this continues when the heart of the season comes we are going to have serious trouble in our hands..

I could say this until I am blue in the face.. but SSTs in the Gulf during the heart of hurricane season are ALWAYS warm enough for hurricanes. Never fails. Doesn't matter whether the water temps are 84 or 88 or 90. You can get Cat 5 hurricanes with SSTs near 84F. anything beyond that is just a little something extra that I don't think the hurricane can use for maximum winds. It might chance how fast it develops... or the wind structure a little.. Wind shear controls the intensities of GOM hurricane, not instability...

Iam just trying to point out that the gulf of mexico is warmer than last year.

[JamesFromMaine2]

I could say this until I am blue in the face.. but SSTs in the Gulf during the heart of hurricane season are ALWAYS warm enough for hurricanes. Never fails. Doesn't matter whether the water temps are 84 or 88 or 90. You can get Cat 5 hurricanes with SSTs near 84F. anything beyond that is just a little something extra that I don't think the hurricane can use for maximum winds. It might chance how fast it develops... or the wind structure a little.. Wind shear controls the intensities of GOM hurricane, not instability...

I disagree with you! Yes maybe 84F SSTs are warm enough to support a cat 5 however I think you are underestimating the effects of SSTs! With Katrina and Rita it wasn't until they got over the Loop Current that they really started to explode Also Wilma was in warmer water then 84F when she exploded. Had they not been in such hot water I very much don't think they would have turned out to be the monsters they became!

[benny]

I could say this until I am blue in the face.. but SSTs in the Gulf during the heart of hurricane season are ALWAYS warm enough for hurricanes. Never fails. Doesn't matter whether the water temps are 84 or 88 or 90. You can get Cat 5 hurricanes with SSTs near 84F. anything beyond that is just a little something extra that I don't think the hurricane can use for maximum winds. It might chance how fast it develops... or the wind structure a little.. Wind shear controls the intensities of GOM hurricane, not instability...

I disagree with you! Yes maybe 84F SSTs are warm enough to support a cat 5 however I think you are underestimating the effects of SSTs! With Katrina and Rita it wasn't until they got over the Loop Current that they really started to explode Also Wilma was in warmer water then 84F when she exploded. Had they not been in such hot water I very much don't think they would have turned out to be the monsters they became!

People have a very short memory I'm afraid... the maximum hurricane occurance in the basin is n of puerto rico.. nowhere near the maximum SSTs or heat content. Now I didn't say it couldn't affect intensification rate.. but there have been plenty of hurricanes that intensified quickly (see Hugo 89, Georges 98, Isabel 03) over waters that were about 28C.. 83F or so. There was no loop current or particularly warm or deep water in its path. The atmosphere controls these things.. the ocean assists but it is a minor effect. Just my opinion of course... if the atmosphere isn't perfect the ocean isn't going to do squat to the hurricane. I think the loop current is more overblown that even global warming.

For further evidence.. look at the list of rapid intensifiers:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=84221

Not too many over the Gulf in the upper brackets. A lot more in the tropical Atlantic east of or just n of the lesser antilles. All atmosphere. The ocean just has to be warm enough to let it happen.

[Ivan14]

I am still in shock about how quickly the hot water is spreading.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It appears at least the gulf of Mexico is about 15 days ahead of last year. In water temperature. But slightly cooler still over the area east of 45 west.

[benny]

It appears at least the gulf of Mexico is about 15 days ahead of last year. In water temperature. But slightly cooler still over the area east of 45 west.

yep... it is different out in the eastern deep tropical atlc. we had rather deep mid-latitude penetration of systems last year that destroyed the subtropical surface ridge..leading to much warming.. now.. hmm.. not the same story.

[CHRISTY]

Here's the SST image i posted on May 11 ....






Here's the Lastest SST image!Notice any difference i do....The 80 plus area i circled in black is bigger on this image.Not a huge difference but as the weeks go by this may have a serious impact in anything that gets in the gulf of mexico.

[Ivan14]

The reds are spreading like wildfire!!!!!!!!!!!

[mike815]

its getting there

[HurricaneHunter914]

Looks like the yellow areas are leaving the GOM too.

[Scorpion]

The latest:

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tr ... 20x486.jpg

Now it looks like red is escaping into the Gulf Stream!

[HurricaneHunter914]

The latest:

Wow now major hurricanes are possible all over the GOM.