Thinking of Writing off Winter 2004-05 in the East?

[Chris the Weather Man]

Chris,

You make some good points. Here's a reminder that things could be far worse. Notice the amounts during the four-year period shown below.

New York City Seasonal Snowfall:

Code: Select all

Season   Snow
1996-97   10.0"
1997-98    5.5"
1998-99   12.7"
1999-00   16.3"


Yeah, so true Don, I remember those horrible periods.......

[donsutherland1]

For further reference, New York City's winters having the least snowfall are as follows:

Code: Select all

Season   Snowfall
1972-73   2.8"
2001-02   3.5"
1918-19   3.8"
1931-32   5.3"
1997-98   5.5"
1877-78   8.1"
1988-89   8.1"
1900-01   9.1"


[breeze]

LOL, I don't write ANY winter precip off, here, until after
mid-April!

[wxguy25]

Here in new jersey, we've only gotten a few inches. I'm very upset, cold air is expected but no moisture with it. This is ridiculous. I hate this winter. I thought it was supposed to be cold and snowy. I hate forecasters.

So what’s your point? Do you “Hate Forecasters” b/c you have some kind of weird prejudice against us? Or is it just that you’re upset at the fact that you’re not seeing an 8 inch snowstorm every two days and therefore out of frustration you hate everyone who is not forecasting them?

Personally I think it s the latter of the two.

You can hate forecasters all you want b/c you’re frustrated, but I’m sorry to say as forecasters we don’t control weather patterns. You need to adopt a more positive and less pessimistic attitude. I mean look at it this way, it could be worse. You could be getting no snow…this winter could have been a repeat of 2001-02.

[Tri-State_1925]

Just headed back to NYC (where it only rains btw). Snow started in WMass around 4PM...I-91 was a mess throughout CT, but the snow was really coming down in southern CT. I took the Metro rail later...man, you should have seen the snow in Norwalk around 8:30 PM. Easy 1+ inch/hour rates going on there.

[donsutherland1]

As some are again inclined to abandon their hopes for Winter 2004-05--incredibly, at a time when the pattern is showing much potential--I am bumping this thread, as it addresses such concerns.

This afternoon's discussion from the BOX National Weather Service Forecast Office describes very well the pattern that is now evolving. The discussion states, "Seemingly a more sustained wintry pattern lies ahead for the coming week and beyond. There looks to be several potential snow situations and probably at least two major arctic intrusions."

In addition, another post that contains info. that might be of relevance for February can be found at: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=55706

Tidbit for those who are truly hopeless:

At the end of January 1914, New York City had received just 1.6" of snow. Prior to that, only the 1899-00 season had seen less at the end of January (1.1"). In February, the snows came alive and early March saw a blizzard bury the City. The February-March snowfall of 38.9" still ranks 3rd all-time for the February-March total. Winter 1913-14 finished with 40.5"

[Chris the Weather Man]

1914 would be nice here!

[coriolis]

I enjoy having "interesting" winter weather, but my wallet likes my heating bill so far this year.

[jkt21787]

LOL, I don't write ANY winter precip off, here, until after
mid-April!

Breeze, that is quite true for this area. You may remember that last April (I think it was the 13th) that much of West and Middle Tennessee had a surprise snowstorm that dropped from 1 to 4 inches across the area. Jackson had its latest snowfall ever, as well as the biggest for April.

You take anything you can get around these parts!

It does look much more promising for Februrary, we may even sneak in a storm before the end of this month (although that looks less and less likely). Also, there are some flurries flying today across much of the state. I think we have had 2 or 3 so far

[Persepone]

It's winter on Cape Cod...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
616 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2005

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-171100-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
616 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...
MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT...AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
A WINTER STORM WILL EFFECT THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE MASSACHUSETTS COAST...AS WELL AS CAPE COD AND THE OUTER
ISLANDS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE
WARNED AREA...WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED IN EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY
IN MASSACHUSETTS...AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND NANTUCKET. JUST INLAND
FROM THE COAST...3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED AND THIS INCLUDES
THE PROVIDENCE METROPOLITAN AREA. FURTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT 2 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED...INCLUDING
THE WORCESTER METROPOLITAN AREA. ACROSS NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED.

IN ADDITION...VERY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THIS MAY RESULT IN NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

GALE WARNINGS ARE POSTED FOR ALL THE WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR.
WIND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS. SEAS
WILL ALSO BUILD TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE AN INCH OR LESS OF ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE OCEAN EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW ZERO OVER
INTERIOR NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...WITH
SINGLES DIGIT READINGS OVER MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WIND...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS OF BETWEEN -15 AND -30 TO TO THE NORTH OF THE MASSACHUSETTS
TURNPIKE. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS REGION
IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

GALE WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER ALL OUTER-WATERS...CAPE
COD BAY...AS WELL AS THE SOUNDS RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FREEZING
SPRAY AND ARCTIC SEA SMOKE WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN FOR MARINERS.

A CLIPPER TYPE OF SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE REGION. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY COASTAL STORM MAY
EFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...ANOTHER SNOW STORM
WILL EFFECT A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR REGION. CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT IS
AROUND 50 PERCENT.

ANOTHER INTRUSION OF BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN...SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE
A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL LEVELS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
FOR SNOWFALL REPORTS. ALSO...WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH OR GREATER SHOULD
BE REPORTED.

$$

FRANK

[donsutherland1]

Verifications:

...many of the possible analogs (based on ENSO, QBO, etc.) offer much reason for confidence that The January 16-31 period will prove colder than normal in the East (7 of the 10 seasons with similar ENSO profiles in both December and October-December) argue for this. 3 of the 4 that include a similar MEI do so.

Moreover, of those 7 that showed the pattern change to colder than normal after mid-month, 5 saw that pattern sustained into at least the first week in February. So, given the weight of analogs, I do not believe it would be unreasonable to argue that the colder pattern could hold for 2-3 weeks. Supporting this idea is both the RSM and GSM.

Beyond this, perhaps there might be a 1-2 week pause and then the pattern might well reload if at least some of the past analogs have merit. That's a little more speculative but at least food for thought.

January 16-31: Colder than normal
February 1-15: Warmer than normal
February 16-March 31: Colder than normal

I am confident that Washington, DC will see at least 16" of snow this season (total to date is 0.1") with possibly more, Philadelphia will see 20"-25" (to date: 0.4"), and Boston will see 50"-60" (to date: 19.5").

Seasonal snowfall totals (through April 4):
Boston: 86.6"
Philadelphia: 30.4"
Washington, DC: 12.5"

In short, I believe one should be cautious about prematurely writing off winter at this point in time. This is not 1972-73, 1997-98 or 2001-02 in the East.

The above outcomes speak for themselves.

[JBG]

As we all know, NYC wound up with 41" for the season. This is the first time in history with more than 40" for Central Park three consecutive winters!!!

[depotoo]

welcome jbg!

[JBG]

welcome jbg!

Thanks for the welcome.