ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Come Monday there’s gonna be a lot of surprised folks saying ‘but on Saturday it was just a little tropical storm…’

A storm named Opal comes to mind with the same thing.

[LARanger]

Untrained eye, here, but I don't care for this nuclear blast / Eye of Sauron thing happening.

(click for loop, silly imgbb)



Last frame:

[cheezyWXguy]

This was Zeta 2020, as a tropical storm in the GoM after making landfall in Yucatan as a Cat 1: (original comment)
https://i.imgur.com/u5ezU25.gif

Two hours after this image, a few hot towers started firing off and rotating around the LLC. Soon, Zeta developed a solid core. It eventually intensified rapidly to a major at landfall with baroclinic forcing, while spending much less time in the GoM than Beryl has remaining.

Not saying the same thing will happen to Beryl, as their tracks and surroundings are different. (You can see that Zeta had a much more moist environment to work with.) However, things can and do change quickly in the Gulf, even for storms that don't look like much.

Dude, thank you for posting this. I was going to make a similar post about this exact storm last night but never got around to it.

[loon]

She really is recovering at quite a pace.. looks so much better than even just a few hours ago. gonna be a long day.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It's looking like the convection is building at a good clip now

[Steve]

Zeta is what my avatar is. Pro met and s2ker Dylan Federico took it. Was when the eye was passing over and everything was orange. Strange storm with almost no backside after the initial rush of winds on the south eyewall.

I don’t think Beryl looks all that bad. But it is weak. For the Icon solution to verify it’s got to get stronger. Otherwise it only led the way to a Texas landfall which could be just about anywhere along the coast but north of Brownsville.

jaguars you asked that 4x in the last couple days. I never answered because I was never sure. Could be boom. Could be bust. Gotta be ready for the max winds but those are often offshore. You aren’t that far inland but it would probably howl down at Port L. Best guess 40-45 maybe? Possibly a higher gust?

[ColdMiser123]

One interesting thing taking place right now is recon is flying at different heights - one at 700 mb & the other at 850 mb. This can be useful in seeing how much tilt there still is with the MLC and the LLC.

The 850 mb center jogged to the NNW with the most recent pass, implying an attempt to become more vertically aligned, thanks to the recent convective blowup.

[Xyls]

That CDO is coming back fast. I'm going to make a totally unfounded prediction Beryl comes ashore as a Cat 3 as I think it's going to go more in the Houston direction.

[ScottNAtlanta]

One interesting thing taking place right now is recon is flying at different heights - one at 700 mb & the other at 850 mb. This can be useful in seeing how much tilt there still is with the MLC and the LLC.

The 850 mb center jogged to the NNW with the most recent pass, implying an attempt to become more vertically aligned, thanks to the recent convective blowup.

...and that convective blowup is still ongoing. I'd say in an hour you will see it start to feather out

[Coolcruiseman]

Beryl has consistently defied expectations on her cruise across the Caribbean. Is she about to do so one last time in the GoM?

[ROCK]

That CDO is coming back fast. I'm going to make a totally unfounded prediction Beryl comes ashore as a Cat 3 as I think it's going to go more in the Houston direction.

I dont think any intensity model shows RI to a 3 at this point...but a run to Cat 2 is not out of the question.

[Wampadawg]

Wouldn’t it be interesting if there was a version of Hard Knocks inside the Hurricane Center for this storm!

[InfernoFlameCat]

That CDO is coming back fast. I'm going to make a totally unfounded prediction Beryl comes ashore as a Cat 3 as I think it's going to go more in the Houston direction.

I dont think any intensity model shows RI to a 3 at this point...but a run to Cat 2 is not out of the question.

I wouldn't lean into the intensity models too hard. It looks like this storm is organizing more quickly than it was supposed to.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Just remember (and the NHC says this as well) that our skill in predicting intensity can still be lacking...so take that for what you will.

[TexasF6]

She's recovering nicely. CDO is back.

[Nederlander]

That CDO is coming back fast. I'm going to make a totally unfounded prediction Beryl comes ashore as a Cat 3 as I think it's going to go more in the Houston direction.

I dont think any intensity model shows RI to a 3 at this point...but a run to Cat 2 is not out of the question.

Yeah winds would have to start intensifying at a clip of ~1mph from now until landfall for Cat 3 (not likely). But she might slowly strengthen today and then potentially undergo RI tomorrow into Monday. Borderline Cat 1/2 most likely imo.

[cheezyWXguy]

Beryl seems to be wasting little time putting itself back together but even a brief period of unfavorable conditions could set it back again. As others have said, today is a pivotal day. One thing that’s interesting is that data from the two recon flights seem to suggest that the center has either reformed or been sucked up closer to being underneath the cloud canopy. The plane that just finished its mission looks to have caught it in progress, and then the plane that’s still out there identified a center in the same spot, a little lower in pressure.

The slowing of eastward trends on the models is probably due to them not expecting or not being able to resolve a quicker restrengthening trend in the near term. If Beryl does restrengthen quickly, the higher end scenarios a bit further east would come back into play.

[Xyls]

That CDO is coming back fast. I'm going to make a totally unfounded prediction Beryl comes ashore as a Cat 3 as I think it's going to go more in the Houston direction.

I dont think any intensity model shows RI to a 3 at this point...but a run to Cat 2 is not out of the question.

I think the intensity forecasts for Beryl have been off and I suspect they are off here too.

[Kohlecane]

Nice CDO pop, can see the LLC sneaking underneath ever so nonchalant

[ROCK]

glad recon is in there...997MB..I suspect that is the max we will see from here on out...lets see how low it gets.