ATL: IDALIA - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Did anyone post the 18Z ICON? I hope it's not the trend setter again.
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M a r k
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FLLurker32
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
tolakram wrote:Did anyone post the 18Z ICON? I hope it's not the trend setter again.
https://i.imgur.com/naBQYxz.png
Especially since it’s underestimating it’s strength.
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Heather
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Has anyone noticed any changes with the trough on the model runs? Is it still moving into place as expected?
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Think why the 00z TVCN didn't shifted west is because the early 0z HAFS models shifted east from previous early 18z runs.
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HurricaneBelle
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
Was going through the Global Models Discussion in Talking Tropics and this was sniffed out by the Euro 9-10 days ago with a storm going into the Big Bend. Here's Gatorcane's post from 8 days ago (sadly it was not a phantom):
https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 3#p3034243
https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 3#p3034243
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eastcoastFL
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
HurricaneBelle wrote:Was going through the Global Models Discussion in Talking Tropics and this was sniffed out by the Euro 9-10 days ago with a storm going into the Big Bend. Here's Gatorcane's post from 8 days ago (sadly it was not a phantom):
https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 3#p3034243
Wow, not sure if that’s a coincidence or just outstanding forecasting from the Euro
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
eastcoastFL wrote:HurricaneBelle wrote:Was going through the Global Models Discussion in Talking Tropics and this was sniffed out by the Euro 9-10 days ago with a storm going into the Big Bend. Here's Gatorcane's post from 8 days ago (sadly it was not a phantom):
https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 3#p3034243
Wow, not sure if that’s a coincidence or just outstanding forecasting from the Euro
Euro did trend weaker in the few runs that followed, but that's to be expected given that it almost always underestimates intensity. As for track, IIRC it was rather consistent in the general area.
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
HurricaneBelle wrote:Was going through the Global Models Discussion in Talking Tropics and this was sniffed out by the Euro 9-10 days ago with a storm going into the Big Bend. Here's Gatorcane's post from 8 days ago (sadly it was not a phantom):
https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 3#p3034243
That's pretty crazy, huh? EURO may have nailed it... damn near to the spot, date, and time
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
GFS 0Z started. South movement means well south of last run.
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M a r k
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
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FLLurker32
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
tolakram wrote:GFS 0Z started. South movement means well south of last run.
https://i.imgur.com/weUrVS4.gif
All the atmospheric data collected today should be in this one. It’ll be interesting to see.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
00z ICON… Slight SE shift into Crystal River area.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
tolakram wrote:https://i.imgur.com/K1fTbFg.png
GFS is all borked on intensity. No way that's only 987mb miday Tue unless it's seeing shear.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
0Z ICON
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
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M a r k
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: IDALIA - Models
4 run trend
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M a r k
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