2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

Tc outbreak incoming.. these waves in particular are interesting

https://i.postimg.cc/gJgWfm7m/IMG-1350.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/s2Vf862P/IMG-1352.gif

Its been active in se fla, yesterday was a bust but over achieving since midnite

Was talking with Robert Garcia yesterday senior met wfo
SFL and yup the wave was unimpressive and stayed further south then initially thought. Cfs did great picking up the current activity

[aspen]

12z CMC regenerates Emily in the subtropics. While it doesn’t care much for the current lemon, it gets a MDR runner out of the wave behind it.

[Steve]

ICON showing a crossover type weakness with lowest pressure in the Gulf. This would be valid 7pm next week Sunday. 0Z Euro had a hint near the Yucatán but so far those are the ones kind of showing the Gulf as being a place to watch for a possible system.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 012&fh=180

CMC 12z wants something to come up as well but moves it out across south Florida.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 012&fh=240

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro with something no other model has (outside the CMC which is weak) into the Eastern Gulf and Florida. Since it is an outlier, going with phantom development:

[IcyTundra]

12Z Euro with something no other model has into the Eastern Gulf and Florida. Since it is an outlier, going with phantom development:

https://i.postimg.cc/pVJzwrxD/ec-fast-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh144-240.gif

Pretty sure that is the EPAC to Atlantic crossover system that it has been showing off and on for the past few days. The GFS also has the same feature in the EPAC but it is a lot stronger and it moves northward over Central America and dissipates.

[Cpv17]

12Z Euro with something no other model has into the Eastern Gulf and Florida. Since it is an outlier, going with phantom development:

https://i.postimg.cc/pVJzwrxD/ec-fast-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh144-240.gif

Pretty sure that is the EPAC to Atlantic crossover system that it has been showing off and on for the past few days. The GFS also has the same feature in the EPAC but it is a lot stronger and it moves northward over Central America and dissipates.

The ICON has it as well.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Euro with something no other model has into the Eastern Gulf and Florida. Since it is an outlier, going with phantom development:

https://i.postimg.cc/pVJzwrxD/ec-fast-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh144-240.gif

Pretty sure that is the EPAC to Atlantic crossover system that it has been showing off and on for the past few days. The GFS also has the same feature in the EPAC but it is a lot stronger and it moves northward over Central America and dissipates.

The ICON has it as well.

Cmc had this as well.

[SFLcane]

12Z Euro with something no other model has (outside the CMC which is weak) into the Eastern Gulf and Florida. Since it is an outlier, going with phantom development:

https://i.postimg.cc/pVJzwrxD/ec-fast-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh144-240.gif

Ecmwf an outlier? Phantom? Now your reaching Lol.

Next few weeks looks very active!

[MetroMike]

In Joe Bastardi''s Sat summary he was eluding to something that could develop down there and head into the Gulf.
Guess he was picking up on something. See if it persists in further runs.

[SFLcane]

[Steve]

12Z Euro with something no other model has (outside the CMC which is weak) into the Eastern Gulf and Florida. Since it is an outlier, going with phantom development:

https://i.postimg.cc/pVJzwrxD/ec-fast-mslpa-Norm-watl-fh144-240.gif

If it happens it will autocorrect westward. That’s not to say it’s a SE Louisiana hit or anything. It would probably adjust for late August where storms don’t usually head off NE coming up until maybe landfall.

[Texoz]

https://i.postimg.cc/VNSKdhbm/IMG-7471.jpg

High pressure death ridge wins again? re: tropical storm going into northern Mexico instead of Texas.

[gatorcane]

The GFS doesn’t have the Euro OP Eastern Gulf hurricane and the EPS looks unimpressive so that Euro OP run showing a hurricane looks suspect to me. Lots of activity all heading towards the North Atlantic according to the GFS. Bermuda. Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland should pay attention to Franklin and perhaps some of the subsequent systems:

[ronjon]

18z GFS does however have a weak crossover low (1007 mb) similar to Euro. It just keeps it weak and shunts it NE south of Florida. Something to watch the models over the coming days as now 4 models show a cross over disturbance: GFS, Euro, CMC and ICON.

[SFLcane]

The GFS doesn’t have the Euro OP Eastern Gulf hurricane and the EPS looks unimpressive so that Euro OP run showing a hurricane looks suspect to me. Lots of activity all heading towards the North Atlantic according to the GFS. Bermuda. Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland should pay attention to Franklin and perhaps some of the subsequent systems:

https://i.postimg.cc/1zkqg98B/gfs-mslp-wind-atl-fh0-192.gif

Everything has looked suspect to you even the ongoing tc outbreak as you have stated numerous times do to high wind shear across the entire Atlantic. Despite the hostile environment things have really ramped up and goes to show you how quickly things can change this time of the year.




The next 2/3 weeks should get even busier heading into the first week of September.

[blp]

Oh my! now it's Red everywhere. 3 storms with Gert. Never seen anything like it. The downcasters have awaken the Atlantic.

[mantis83]

Oh my! now it's Red everywhere. 3 storms with Gert. Never seen anything like it. The downcasters have awaken the Atlantic.

https://i.ibb.co/8ddYThH/two-atl-7d0.png

lots of ace with little impact to any land, the best kind of hurricane season!

[ChrisH-UK]

Oh my! now it's Red everywhere. 3 storms with Gert. Never seen anything like it. The downcasters have awaken the Atlantic.

https://i.ibb.co/8ddYThH/two-atl-7d0.png

Is this 2020. that was the last time we had 5 named storms in the Atlantic

[kevin]

06z GFS

*Gert falls apart within 24 hours.
*Emily hangs on quite a while (~120 hrs) as a TD/TS, peaks at 1002 mb.
*Franklin landfalls at 48 hours with a pressure of 993 mb. Afterwards it bombs out into the second hurricane of the season with a peak of 968 mb at 150 hours. (Potentially extratropical) remnants of Franklin could impact Newfoundland in the long term (~200 hrs).
*91L becomes TS Harold and makes landfall in southern Texas at 30 hours with a pressure of 1000 mb.
*92L becomes a a big ACE hurricane (probably Idalia), peaking at 957 mb and remaining a MH until it becomes ET.

Other things this run
*TD/TS (1004 mb) into western Florida at 234 hours.
*A new CV TD/TS about to form at the end of the run.

While it it unwise to take long-term model runs as fact, runs like this indicate that we could already be at Jose or Katia in the first week of September with 5 or maybe even 6 TCs in August. Just to illustrate that the Atlantic has really woken up.

[SFLcane]