SPAC: DEBBIE - Post-Tropical

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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#61 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Mar 27, 2017 5:48 pm

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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#62 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:27 pm

The last storm of this intensity to make landfall in Australia was Yasi?

I know a lot of reporters from Aussie stations are covering it up there. They haven't had much chance in this era either.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#63 Postby Alyono » Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:37 pm

Marcia was MUCH stronger 2 years ago
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#64 Postby NotoSans » Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:52 pm

Surface observations seem to suggest that BOM's intensity estimate is quite reasonable.
Last edited by NotoSans on Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#65 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:53 pm

Wind report (10-min sustained) of 103 kt on Hamilton Island, gusting to 125 kt.

That supports an intensity of at least 115 kt (1-min) - category 4 on the SSHWS as well.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#66 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:54 pm

NotoSans wrote:Surface observations seem to suggest that BOM's intensity estimate is quite reasonable.


I agree, high end of cat 4 on their scale, while 115 kt seems the best estimate on 1-min winds given the data from Hamilton Island.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#67 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:09 pm

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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#68 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:47 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:If the K-Z-C wind relationship is used on a central pressure of 950mb, what intensity does it come out to given its size and latitude?

Using the 950 mb central pressure and the 18Z data from the ATCF b-decks (latitude of 19.9S, forward speed of 4 kt, average tropical storm force radius of 160 nm, and outermost closed isobar of 1005 mb), KZC outputs 100 kt 1 minute sustained/88 kt 10 minute sustained. However, if the 103 kt from Hamilton Island (59 m elevation) is representative of maximum intensity, KZC spits out a 935 mb pressure.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#69 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:55 pm

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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#70 Postby NotoSans » Mon Mar 27, 2017 8:06 pm

BOM up to 100 kt (10-min sustained winds), which corresponds to a low-end cat 4 on the SSHWS scale. JTWC went with 105 kt at 00Z.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#71 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 8:51 pm

NotoSans wrote:BOM up to 100 kt (10-min sustained winds), which corresponds to a low-end cat 4 on the SSHWS scale. JTWC went with 105 kt at 00Z.


I just realized the Hamilton Island station is elevated at 59 m. So the 105 kt intensity seems reasonable in that case, maybe 110 kt.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#72 Postby euro6208 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:21 pm

Image
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#73 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:07 pm

Based on storm chaser reports so far, I would estimate the landfall pressure to be 954mb.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#74 Postby Alyono » Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:01 pm

looks like Bowen radar has been wiped out
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#75 Postby euro6208 » Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:29 am

Back end of Debbie lashing Airlie beach.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Post-Tropical

#76 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Apr 02, 2017 6:39 am

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