EPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS (04E)

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep952009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
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0000
200907091358
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 95, 2009, DB, O, 2009070912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP952009
EP, 95, 2009070812, , BEST, 0, 88N, 1062W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2009070900, , BEST, 0, 92N, 1077W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2009070906, , BEST, 0, 94N, 1085W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2009070912, , BEST, 0, 95N, 1090W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...ARE CENTERED
ABOUT 830 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10
MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Still has a lot of work to do.

[KWT]

Ah yes this doesn't surprise me to see it being tagged. The ECM does develop this system but not into anything too impressive. Right now its just a mess but it does have a shot at developing, even though odds are it won't be strong.

[HURAKAN]

Model support.

[HURAKAN]

Probability going up.

[cycloneye]

Not bad looking but still needs to form a well defined Low Level Circulation.

[KWT]

Wouldn't be all that surprising to see this develop looking at it at the moment, we will have to wait and see but conditions look decent enough out there.

[cycloneye]

Code Orange

391
ABPZ20 KNHC 091731
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU JUL 9 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...ARE CENTERED
ABOUT 875 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[Ed Mahmoud]

Model support.

Canadian has this as the First CPac TC of 2009

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best track

Time=18:00 UTC or 2 PM EDT.
Position=Latitud=9.7N - Longitud,109.8W.
Winds=25 kts.
Pressure=1008 mbs.
System=Disturbance.

EP, 95, 2009070918, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1098W, 25, 1008, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[cycloneye]

First model plots for 95E

SHIP makes it a powerful hurricane in 4 days.

669
WHXX01 KMIA 091849
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1849 UTC THU JUL 9 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP952009) 20090709 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090709 1800 090710 0600 090710 1800 090711 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.7N 109.8W 9.9N 111.8W 10.0N 114.0W 10.1N 116.0W
BAMD 9.7N 109.8W 9.5N 111.4W 9.2N 113.3W 9.0N 115.3W
BAMM 9.7N 109.8W 9.5N 111.4W 9.3N 113.3W 9.2N 115.1W
LBAR 9.7N 109.8W 9.8N 111.4W 9.6N 113.7W 9.6N 116.5W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090711 1800 090712 1800 090713 1800 090714 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.9N 118.0W 10.0N 122.0W 10.0N 125.9W 10.1N 129.0W
BAMD 9.0N 117.4W 9.7N 121.8W 10.8N 126.2W 11.4N 129.7W
BAMM 8.9N 117.1W 9.3N 121.2W 10.2N 125.0W 11.3N 127.6W
LBAR 9.4N 119.3W 10.1N 124.9W 11.0N 129.5W 11.2N 134.7W
SHIP 65KTS 78KTS 82KTS 84KTS
DSHP 65KTS 78KTS 82KTS 84KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 109.8W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 9.4N LONM12 = 108.5W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 8.9N LONM24 = 106.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Ed Mahmoud]

Southern runner- maybe the Canadian is right and my CPac/Hawai'i thread sees some posters other than me.

[HURAKAN]

Nice circulation.

[HURAKAN]

09/1800 UTC 9.8N 109.5W T1.5/1.5 95E -- East Pacific

[KWT]

I think this looks like a good runner, wouldn't shock me to see this develop sooner rather then later, maybe into a hurricane given the low latitude its expected to keep.

Looks like the El nino rush may finally be starting!

[clfenwi]

Nice... when I made my daily first light look at the basins, I thought this area looked kind of interesting, but didn't realize it had been tagged as an invest. Interestingly, the Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product, even though it has upticked, hasn't yet spiked the way it has in front of the other cyclones (and isn't bulls-eyed on the area either).

[cycloneye]

This system looks to be organizing in a fast pace.Looking very good.

[HURAKAN]

It needs stronger convection but it's on its way.

[Ed Mahmoud]

A little sparse on deep convection, but it looks like it is trying to develop banding features.