SIO 93S INVEST

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

93S INVEST
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 17, 2018:

Location: 7.2°S 59.1°E
Maximum Winds: 15 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb


GFS
https://imgur.com/CUpFUTx
https://imgur.com/WOIdDUT
https://imgur.com/g1JdI0U
https://imgur.com/isPJZzG

sst https://imgur.com/ejX0jf2

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

93S INVEST 180422 0000 9.7S 51.3E SHEM 25 1005


https://imgur.com/Xu0XYDH


https://imgur.com/3HI3Yab

18z hwrf had a weakening hurricane on approach to the island.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZAPR2018//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.9S 53.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1S 51.9E, APPROXIMATELY 805
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211509Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) ARE SUPPORTIVE OF FUTURE DEVELOPMENT.
GLOBAL PREDICTION MODELS ARE INDECISIVE ON WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL
INTENSIFY TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH, BUT GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE
SYSTEM PASSES NEAR THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR AS IT
TRANSITS ALONG A SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

ELIAKIM or FAKIR depending on what current swio storm is first to be named.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

00Z hwrf slams into reunion with max intensity that could be up-to a borderline cat3.

https://i.imgur.com/uqPbjoE.png

[1900hurricane]

Eliakim has already been used.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

yeah i'm bad, had Eliakim in my head

[1900hurricane]

Now named Fakir, and the microwave eye suggests that it may be slightly underestimated at the moment.

[Alyono]

about to make landfall. winds seem to be in the 65-70 kt range

[1900hurricane]

This was classified as Severe Tropical Storm Fakir, but the thread title never was updated.