Tennessee winters correlated with weak El Nino, etc.

[tnradman]

I know, I know, it's snowier and colder up North. However, snow in TN is special like dessert as opposed to the main course up North. It is reasonable to assume that since TN is on the border zone between states that get snow and those that don't that TN winters may be particularly sensitive to major factors such as El Nino.

I correlated factors such as El Nino, La Nina, and the ONI with snowfall amounts, # of severe artic outbreaks, # of very cold days (i.e., days less than or equal to 0 F and days less than 10 F), and # of days with highs and lows less than or equal to 32 F for Nashville from 1950-51 to 2003-04. I defined severe artic outbreaks as events (not days) that were associated with temperatures less than 10 F since it doesn't get below 10 F in Nashville unless there is a strong artic blast. For me personally the perception of how "cold" a winter is relates more to the # of very cold days and # of days with subfreezing highs than it does to the mean temperature for a particular month.

This is what I came up with:

WEAK EL NINO YEARS: Snowfall-greater than normal every year with average=202% of normal. Temperature-colder than normal with November normal or colder than normal 80% of the time. (Since this is predicted to be a weak El Nino season I hope this trend continues. Also, the positive phase of the PNA is often associated with weak El Nino episodes).

MODERATE EL NINO YEARS: Snowfall-slightly above normal average but yearly amounts variable (range: 32% to 186% of normal). Temperature-normal.

STRONG EL NINO YEARS: Snowfall-below normal with average=47% of normal. Temperature-warmer than normal.

WEAK AND MODERATE LA NINA YEARS: Snowfall-slightly above normal average but yearly amounts variable with some years very snowy and some with little snow. Temperature-normal.

STRONG LA NINA YEARS: Snowfall-below normal with average=45% of normal. Temperature-warmer than normal.

NEUTRAL (NO EL NINO OR LA NINA) WITH NEGATIVE OR ZERO ONI: Snowfall-slightly above normal average but yearly amounts variable with some very snowy years and some with little snow. Temperature-slightly colder than normal but variable.

NEUTRAL WITH POSITIVE ONI: Snowfall-below normal with average=31% of normal. Temperature-warmer than normal.

When November was warmer than normal, snowfall was less than normal 80% of the time-"When it's warm in November the winter remembers."

[breeze]

Welcome, tnradman! I was hoping for MORE
snow in mid-TN, this year! Let's see what Nov.
brings - there are whispers of a cool-down,
next week!

[tnradman]

Welcome, tnradman! I was hoping for MORE
snow in mid-TN, this year! Let's see what Nov.
brings - there are whispers of a cool-down,
next week!

The more snow the better! I was lucky last year and saw a freakish 9" around Valentine's Day but there was nothing 20 miles to the west where I work.

[BreinLa]

okay you guys I'll be in Middle Tennessee for Christmas bring on the snow

[tnradman]

Sorry, but the historical probability of measurable snow in the Nashville area on Xmas is only 8%. However, the biggest Xmas snow on record (2.7") was in 1969, a weak El Nino year.

[breeze]

The more snow the better! I was lucky last year and saw a freakish 9" around Valentine's Day but there was nothing 20 miles to the west where I work.

Hey, that was Feb. 15th - I got a whopping 7" of the
powdery white stuff down here in Summertown!

Here's pics of my house and lawn that I posted:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=28459

I'm hoping to see one of those, again, this year...or, maybe,
two...or, three....

BRE!!! You better HOLLER at me when you're here, gal, ok?

[BreinLa]

Will do breeze. Gonna be in Lobelville-Linden

[breeze]

Perry County - Linden is 40 miles westfrom me, and, Lobelville
is close to 60 miles northwestwest - that's what I call
a "hop, skip, and, a jump away"!

Woooo-Hooooo!! Bre's coming up for Christmas!

[FreeSkier]

Hey the weather channel as of right now is showing Snow showers in nashville area

http://www.weather.com/outlook/recreati ... rLocalGolf

Today
Nov 04 Mostly Cloudy 60°/42° 20 %
Fri
Nov 05 Sunny 59°/34° 0 %
Sat
Nov 06 Sunny 61°/41° 20 %
Sun
Nov 07 Sunny 65°/49° 20 %
Mon
Nov 08 Partly Cloudy 63°/41° 20 %
Tue
Nov 09 Mostly Sunny 57°/39° 20 %
Wed
Nov 10 Partly Cloudy 60°/46° 0 %
Thu
Nov 11 Light Rain 57°/38° 60 %
Fri
Nov 12 Scattered Snow Showers 49°/35° 30 %
Sat
Nov 13 Scattered Snow Showers 49°/39°

[breeze]

Bring it on!! Of course, we know, FreeSkier, that the forecast will probably change,
several times, by then, eh?

By the way - welcome to Storm2K!

[FreeSkier]

Yeah the models are changing a tad with a tad warmer temps but i figured it would change. I live Bellevue area outside the nashville area and its kinda cool to see the temp change. I live outside the city in a very hilly area. This year as it seems we look to have a wild winter here if the timing is on and the stupid rain snow line is far enough south. The big storms we do seem to get if its cold enough are out of southern GA that spin up and provide wrap around coming from the NE. Other times we have systems drop out of the north like 2 winters ago when nashville got 8" of snow with nothing even on the forcast. Since i have seen many predict 4-6degrees cooler in Middle Tn i wonder what this winter has in store for us. I love watching people try and drive in it here.

[Brett Adair]

I live in Central AL and I would love to see some snow, but at best I see some of the mountains of TN getting a nice first snowfall late next week. STRONG canadian high pressure shown on the GFS/NOGAPS will dive SEward into the US during the period as the ULL off the coast of SW CA decides to meander eastward. Models were predicting a much colder senario in the past runs but latest analysis shows a warming trend and I expect it to continue. This has been a trend with the GFS, especially for the southern states the past few years. Maybe the algorithms can be adjusted sometime soon.

[breeze]

Thanks, Brett! The mountains do tend to
see snow amounts first, of course, and, I am
quite envious of it, every time! WSMV in
Nashville always shows it falling, and, it's
always so beautiful! Aside from the computer
modules, local natives have told me that certain
"signs" show a harsher winter for us in the
South, going by trees and insect habits -
we'll just wait and see, eh?