Attention Donsutherland: What do you think of this analysis

[Planetsnow]

Seems like a good basis for a colder than normal Pac NW winter, but you predicted above normal temps with above normal precip. What do you think of this analysis from Snow_Wizzard?

http://home.mindspring.com/~snoman2/winter.htm

[donsutherland1]

Planetsnow,

Let me read through it and I'll post later today or tonight. I don't normally evaluate others' forecasts--only the actual outcomes can determine whether or not a forecast worked out--but will probably offer a few thoughts.

[CaptinCrunch]

WOW, that was a GREAT read!! I have been doing some research for my North Texas Winter Outlook and I must say that will help out lotts. I fully believe this winter will be of both extreme's with the cold and warmth for the nation as a whole.

And I'm looking forward to Don's accesment of Snow_Wizards outlook.

[ETXHAMXYL]

Capt. Crunch what is your take on the NTX winter outlook? Really expected more cold stuff last winter but was upset when the Gulf got my white Christmas.

[CaptinCrunch]

Capt. Crunch what is your take on the NTX winter outlook? Really expected more cold stuff last winter but was upset when the Gulf got my white Christmas.

I'am hoping to have my NTX outlook ready by the 31 of Oct.

[CaptinCrunch]

Capt. Crunch what is your take on the NTX winter outlook? Really expected more cold stuff last winter but was upset when the Gulf got my white Christmas.

I'am hoping to have my NTX outlook ready by the 31 of Oct.

[donsutherland1]

Planetsnow,

I believe the key assumption on which Snow_Wizard's forecast is based is a La Niña-type atmospheric response. He writes, "There is also little doubt the atmosphere 'thinks' we are in a La Nina right now. The GLAAM, OLR, 200mb zonal winds, and SOI are all in a La Nina state. We either have to assume a weak La Nina may still happen, or the atmosphere is some odd state that is above and beyond what the actual SST's would dictate."

In my view--and all forecasts must wait for the actual outcomes for purposes of verification--I don't hold such an assumption in my outlook. I believe this is a transient situation. Indeed, the recent weak cool anomalies in Region 3.4 have warmed in recent weeks:

07SEP2005 26.5-0.2
14SEP2005 26.4-0.2
21SEP2005 26.8 0.2
28SEP2005 26.7 0.1
05OCT2005 26.9 0.3
12OCT2005 26.9 0.3

Weak warm anomalies in Region 3.4 is forecast for December-February by most ENSO models.

A PDO- might have a better chance at being sustained. However, that situation could also be transient like last winter. Time will tell.

Overall, the differing ideas on ENSO probably most explain why I believe the Pac NW will have a milder than normal winter while Snow_Wizard feels otherwise.

It will be interesting to see how things evolve. One hint to watch for: see if the data begins to move away from any resemblance of a La Niña-type situation.

[JETSTREAM BOB]

I believe as Don does that the trend back to 0 will occur over the next 4-6 weeks,and the noticeable blocking will start being more evident in the North Atlantic as the first series of buckling the northern branch over the east will occur over the weekend...I ventured out to day 14 GFS 850mb and again the models are picking up on the Atmosphere blocking and buckling the northern branch again over the east coast of the USA sending the 0 line again into Georgia...the models are picking up on a hopefully pattern produced by the atmosphere to produce an active winter pattern for the eastern part of the USA.....JSB