Superstorm 2005 up East Coast?

[cgstorm5]

The way the jet stream will dip so far south into the GOM makes me wonder how Wilma and an unusually early cold tongue will interract. Wasn't the jet in the same position it is back in March 1993 and so much convergence in the Northeast ahead of the cut-off Great Lakes low what are the chances? The GFS and GFDL show a Cape Hatteras bomb(?) ahead of Wilma. IMO I think Wilma will start to phase to hybrid even as Cat-1 before FL landfall only to deepen a surprise daughter low in se GOM. So instead of a true hurricane more like a huge super-extratropical/ suptropical bomb. The neg. NAO so strong this early scares me and the fact a steep ridge in west Canada is tapping into the Arctic Express dragging a deepening low out of Hudson Bay is too mind-boggling. Could the timing be so precise for worse than Perfect storm and Superstorm '93 together creating a 500 yr epic storm?
All the mets are just saying a big rain event for New England and coastal storm so I guess it's all in the timing of Wilma. My God, this monster could slam Europe to Siberia, almost like that hemisphere sized storm in Day After Tomorrow!
I tend to be an over anxious thinker rather than a hyping fool and my gut feels like acid worrying about this potential maeslstrom. Any thoughts if I'm overreacting?

[Tstormwatcher]

Yes I think you are. Remember the superstorm of 93 was forecasted for almost a week before hand. The only surprise, if I remember right, was the storm surge for Florida and the snow line was farther south than predicted.

[cgstorm5]

Yeah, but look at all the intersecting of so many systems: a cold front plowing south, a southern branch jet, lift Wilma Cat-1 up East Coast, TS Alpha curve north for Bermuda. There has got to be a Cape Hatteras Low develop at that time and look how cold the air mass will get aloft at 700mb level. The mets are underestimating this organizing monster. It may not be a deep south snow line but a north Appalachain blizzard with 70 mph winds on strong ne flow and extreme pressure gradient.
I base this on all the model outputs past 3 days which only vary in track not timing. Even if not close enough to New England someone is about to wiped off the face of the Earth from Newfoundland to Europe! A super-perfect storm you could say.
Every pro met is too busy with Wilma and not giving enough of a head's up for the entire East Coast.

[Tri-State_1925]

Every pro met is too busy with Wilma and not giving enough of a head's up for the entire East Coast.

Hold on, did you think JB wouldn't be all over this? Of course he was on FOX News talking about Wilma and Alpha combining into this mega snowstorm. Classic JB...

[cgstorm5]

Clearly JB is onto something that other mets can't see and no he is not hyping it up for the entertainment factor. Even the NHC shows two subtropical storms side by side and with you guys being on the NW side I'd say there is a good chance the Arctic, not Canadian Polar, air mass will wedge southeast not due south to TX.
Reason I know is come Tue. here in drought-stricken SD our highs will jump to near 70s after 40s over the weekend due to the always strong return warm flow from the Southeast. This will tilt the isotherm of hights 40s/ lows 30s ino the Great Lakes much earlier than what the models show. Our western ridges after 2000 got stronger always able to shunt any early Arctic blast and that's what all the mets underestimate. An extreme NAO index like that of Jan. 2001 combined with tropical interactions will indeed bring a monumental blizzard.
Everyone can thank global warming's effects on the snow pack in western US limiting/ inhibiting the Colorado Lows from forming and transfer all that unused energy to the East Coast. This is the way it will always be from now on dry west, superstorms in densely pop. East.
A transition from a strong positive NAO in summer to neg NAO has got to mean some sort of megastorm. Just look after next week quiet all over the US on every model. Another way global warming will cause more potent transitions from tropical across all of the country to Arctic. Isn't it rare for this deep of a cold tongue this early? Must be balmy Alaska ridges tapping into the Arctic/ Siberian Express lol.

[wxwatcher91]

for the record: in Keene, NH we are getting the first snow of the season as I type. it started approximately an hour ago and we have a good dusting on the ground.

[wxwatcher91]

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-s ... ?article=6

SNOW!

[truballer#1]

im between the heavy snow and the heavy rain! i hope it snows!

[Tri-State_1925]

for the record: in Keene, NH we are getting the first snow of the season as I type. it started approximately an hour ago and we have a good dusting on the ground.

Whoa...doesn't look like it snowed around here from the reports I've seen.

I was in the Pioneer Valley for the weekend...we were just having some rain with late-night thunder and lightning yesterday...

[cgstorm5]

Here in the Plains cold lows in 10s isotherm with strong 30.30 surface high diving southeast. I think the models don't take this very early piece of Arctic air mass into account for this perfect storm. The highs spiked to 70s by afternoon which means the steep western ridge tapping the Siberian Express in Canada is pushing faster east than thought. Models or Northeast mets couldn't understand how our systems move so fast due to a 6 yr. drought making a very arid dew points in 10s helping to dive this cold tongue south.

Don't write this storm off people! IMO I still believe the timing of the right dynamics won't be revealed until Wilma is nw of Bermuda. Anyone care to tell me what winds and intense conditions will blast Bermuda?

While we will be basking in another mild snowless winter you guys in the East will be slammed by a parade of Noreasters. Better start creating a list of names LOL.