TWC: Super -NAO!

[cgstorm5]

Off the charts to -4 and Jim Cantore expects something incredible to happen next week if the current Alberta Clipper over the Northern Plains brings snow to TN Valley. Then, an absorbed Gamma into a Cape Hatteras bomb could bring snow to the Deep South. A Superstorm? Only timing will tell.

Wonder what would cause such extreme oscillation? Could someone explain how the NAO, AO, and PDO all shifted at the same time. What are the chances of ocean and pressure trends changing so suddenly especially with the PDO?

Enjoy getting clobbered by this thing easterners while us out West will be under a nice Omega Block. Hahaha! Looks like 2001 all over again and we will be in drought and sun while you guys get hammered one by one. I wonder with the oil crisis a heating crisis takes effect and then by Christmas no one in the East can afford to buy presents. Looks like back to a recession with an inflation all due to Mother Nature!

[aggiecutter]

the 12z EURO jibes with JC.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/ecmna.108.gif

[mike815]

hmmm... could get interesting.

[truballer#1]

yea saw the same thing yesterday, saying something big could hasppen

[WindRunner]

I've never seen a white Christmas, much less a white Thanksgiving! That would be amazing . . .

[Jim Hughes]

Wonder what would cause such extreme oscillation? Could someone explain how the NAO, AO, and PDO all shifted at the same time. What are the chances of ocean and pressure trends changing so suddenly especially with the PDO?

Well the PDO changed to a negative phase and the SOI flipped to a stronger positive phase after the extremeness in space weather that occurred a couple of months ago. This is usually how they hav responded to this type of space weather activity during similar circumstances. Especially the SOI.

Increased amplification of the jet stream is a common occurance after strong proton flares. ( The best influence seems to be around winter time. )

The stratosphere's 30 hPa temperature, at the north pole, has been just as erratic the past 1-2 weeks. So nobody needed any weather models to show them what was going to happen.

Some people have mentioned December 1989 recently in some of the forum's threads.

Well the strongest proton flare on record , in modern times, occurred on October 19th, 1989. The weather swung back and forth some time after this from extreme record highs/high winds etc.. during November 1989 to extreme cold in December.

I have talked about this many times before and I even wrote about this last March, in a a one on one e-mail, after a similar pattern, after the January 20th 2005 Proton Flare. The receipient's reply comment. Who is well known. Fascinating.

So nobody who has ever taken my theories or observations seriously should be surprised by any of this. This is normal not abnormal.


Jim

[wxwatcher91]

VERY interesting forecast discussion this morning:

000
FXUS61 KBOX 190945
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
445 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2005

...DEVELOPING HIGHLY ANOMALOUS UPPER AIR PATTERN PROBABLY RESULTS
IN 2 LARGE SCALE STORMS THE REST OF THE MONTH...

.SYNOPSIS...
FROM THE 22ND THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH SHOULD BE A SOMEWHAT
STORMY PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR BELOW NORMAL. STORMY TO START TUESDAY THE 22ND...THEN SEVERAL
MORE EVENTS TO FOLLOW WHICH SHOULD INCLUDE ANOTHER LARGE SCALE 1+
INCH QPF STORM...MAYBE THAT ONE WILL BE A WEEK OR 10 DAYS FROM NOW.

THE OVERALL LOOK SUGGESTS INTERIOR ICE OR SNOW POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY
AFTER TUESDAYS REGIME CHANGER THAT SENDS A +3SD 500 +ANOM FROM
GREENLAND WWD INTO NE CANADA...A FAVORABLE PSN FOR GENERATING COLD
COASTALS HERE IN SNE.

A REMARKABLE EARLY SEASON PATTERN FOR N AMERICA AND ONE THAT SHOULD
SPREAD SNOWCOVER AND EVENTUALLY LATE DECEMBER WINTER CONDS INTO
SNE...PROBABLY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

AS FOR COLD...IT OSCILLATES E-W IN THE STRONG MERIDIONAL EXCHANGE NR
70W PUTTING SNE IN A MIXED BAG.

OVERALL 00Z/19 ENS ARE RATHER COLD FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS...ESP AFTER
WE SEE THIS FIRST TRANSITION STORM MOVE N INTO QUEBEC.

CERTAINLY AN INTERESTING PATTERN FOR THOSE WHO HAVE WINTER CONDITIONS
INTERESTS!
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
DRY WITH GENERAL WLY BL FLOW. MERGE OF YDYS KBOX FCST AND 00Z/19
NCEP NAM/GFS MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MAIN STORY IN THE EXTENDED IS STORM SYSTEM EARLY NEXT AND WHETHER AN
INSIDE RUNNER OR MORE OFFSHORE. AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL SUITES AND
ENSEMBLES...CONVERGENCE IS ON AN INSIDE TRACK UP HUDSON
VALLEY. THIS INSIDE TRACK KEEPS OUR REGION ON THE WARM SIDE AND
THEREFORE MAINLY RAIN. HAVE SLOWED DOWN POPS FOR REGION KEEPING
MONDAY MAINLY DRY THEN BRINGING IN POPS MONDAY NIGHT...KEEPING
LIKELY FOR TUESDAY. COLDER THICKNESSES WRAP AROUND SYSTEM AS IT
HEADS TOWARD SOUTHERN QUEBEC TUESDAY NIGHT...CHANGING RAIN TO CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR. FOR WEDNESDAY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DIMINISHES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL NEXT SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT
ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOW THE REMNANTS
OF GAMMA PLAY INTO THIS SCENARIO REMAINS TO BE SEEN. BASED ON LATEST
TPC TRACK GAMMA FORECASTED TO BE POSITIONED JUST SE OF ACK EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

[conestogo_flood]

Interesting. I don't understand that weather graphic, anyone care to share what you all are looking at?

[lurkerinthemidst]

So snow possible in TN next week? My 18 yr old was looking to go on a trip Friday for the weekend. If snow is possible then he's not going anywhere. Any thoughts?

[Wpwxguy]

Snow is definitely a possibility in the higher elevations of the Appalachians. Here is the afternoon discussion.

000
FXUS64 KMRX 192101 CCA
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR FOR PRELIM NUMBERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2005

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SFC RIDGE CONTINUES
TO EXTEND SW-NE ACROSS MRX CWA WITH VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. GOOD
SUNSHINE TODAY ALLOWED TEMPS TO RISE 30 OR MORE DEGREES BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL. SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING
A GOOD SLUG OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT. SOME VIRGA MAY BE
SPOTTED. OVRNGT TEMPS ABT 10 DEGREES ABV THIS MORNINGS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. POWERFUL WX SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EVOLVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
POOR AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF EVOLUTION MRX
CWA LOOKS TO GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. COLD CORE LOW DROPS INTO
LWR MS RVR VLY SUN WHILE PRESSURES LOWER OVR E GLFMEX INTO FL.
LITTLE CHC OF RAIN OUTSIDE NC EARLY. BY SUN NGT...WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS CONVEYOR SETS UP FM LOW LEVELS TO
THE SE TO MID LVLS TO THE SW. GFS...WHICH APPEARS TOO FAST WITH
FEATURES DOES SHOW VERY GOOD UPPER SUPPORT OVER MRX INTO MONDAY.
THIS SCENARIO LINGERS OVR S APPALACHIANS AS SFC LOW MOVES NE UP E
CST AND MID LVL COLD CORE SLIDES TO S PART OF AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH SOME UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL BUMP UP POPS
ON A BIT. WITH SOME COLD AIR FILTERING IN ON TUESDAY MORNING...WILL
KEEP MENTION OF SNOW...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT MAY
SEE A MIX ACROSS THE LOW LEVELS. UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA...SO WILL KEEP
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHWEST VA...NORTHEAST TN...AND THE
MOUNTAINS AND DRY ELSEWHERE. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN ON WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP WEDNESDAY DRY. COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
SNOWSHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS
INDICATING MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WILL BUMP UP
POPS A BIT TO CHANCE FOR ALL OF CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST VA...
NORTHEAST TN AND THE MOUNTAINS. MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN BY
AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHEAST TN...
SOUTHWEST VA AND THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER FRONT PUSHING IN ON
FRIDAY...WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY. MOISTURE MORE
LIMITED BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WILL KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY
FOR NOW. STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 37 60 46 54 / 10 10 60 90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 35 59 45 55 / 10 10 50 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 34 60 46 54 / 10 10 50 70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 30 57 42 52 / 10 10 30 80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SON/GH

[Weatherfreak14]

I'm heading up to gatlinburg in about 30min. Can anyone tell me with this storm how much snow I will get? If I get it?

[wxwatcher91]

each forecast discussion from Taunton, MA continues to be very interesting:

000
FXUS61 KBOX 201046 AAA
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..UPDATED LONG TERM CLIMATE ETC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
545 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005

...TRANSITION WEEK TO PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN TO FINISH NOVEMEBER
WITH OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOWCOVER IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE MONDAY NIGHT TUESDAY STORM ENHANCES THE PROCESS OF YANKING MORE
PERSISTENT COLD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND (PLS SEE CLIMATE). SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WEDNESDAY AND A SUBSTANTIAL CLIPPER THURSDAY (MDT
SNOWSTORM INTERIOR?) SHOULD COAT THE GROUND WITH SNOW IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WE SETTLE INTO WHAT SHOULD BE A LONG STRING
OF AT OR BELOW NORMAL COLD FROM WEDNESDAY THE 23RD THAT LASTS THE
REST OF THE MONTH. THIS AS A RESULT OF THE POLAR VORTEX HAVING BEING
DRAWN S OF JAMES BAY BY THE INDUCING MECHANISMS OF THE NORTHWARD
MOVING NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVES OF THIS WEEK AT HAND...HURLING A
HUGE POSITIVE ANOMALY NORTHWARD TO NEAR GREENLAND (-NAO) WHICH TENDS
TO PRESS/REFORM THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTH TWD THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AND WITH THAT YOU EXPECT WEATHER THAT MOVES OUTSIDE THE
NORMALS... IN THIS CASE STORMY AND OR/ COLD./

DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS IN W CANADA TOWARD THE END OF THE MONTH...
THE VORTEX MAY LOSE ITS PRIME CROSS POLAR FLOW COLD SOURCE AND MORE
OR LESS MODIFY... BUT THAT IS GOING TO AWHILE AND WE EXPRESS NO
CONFIDENCE ON THE PATTERN BEYOND THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

THE PATTERN DOES ALLOW FOR PACIFIC EWERGY TO UNDERCUT THE W COAST
RIDGE AND IF ENOUGH COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...MORE SOUTHERN
STORMINESS COULD ARRIVE AROUND THE END OF THE MONTH TO BRIGHTEN
HOLIDAY SPIRITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CAUSE A WARMING
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DRY WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST SOME FEW TO
SCATTERED CIRRUS OVERHEAD. FOR TONIGHT...CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER
WITH JUST SCATTERED CIRRUS OVERHEAD AND A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND. ON
MONDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI EJECTS A
SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE GOMEX AND SENDS IT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY.
EXPECT CIRRUS SHIELD TO THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES MONDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTH
COAST WITHIN WAA...SO CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS FOR DEVELOPING RAIN
SOUTH OF MASS PIKE.

OVERALL FAVORED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM MOS FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: THE STORM...BOMBOGENESIS ADVERTIZED IN MULTI
INTERNATIONAL MODELS. FCST IS A BLEND OF 06Z NAM/00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF/UKMET. ICE IN SW NH AND NW MA PER WWD COLLAB. COULD BE AN
INCH OF SNOW ON BACK SIDE TUESDAY EVENING HIGH TERRAIN MOANDS TO E
SLOPES BERKS.

WEDNESDAY...COLD CORE ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTERIOR SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES.

THURSDAY...SUBSTANTIAL CLIPPER BRINGS PRECIPITATION. BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS MAY LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION THREAT TO DISTANT INTERIOR. THIS
HAS POTENTIAL TO BE A 2-6" SNOW EVENT HITGH TERRAIN W MA AND SW NH.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...APPEARS PASSIVE COLDER THAN NORMAL CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

IF SNOWCOVER...AND WE RADIATE ONE OF THESE NIGHTS...COULD SEE
UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY EARLY SAT (NEAR
RECORD). WE ARE NOWHERE CLOSE TO THAT IN OUR FCST NOW SINCE WE TOOK
THE TIME TO TREND DOWN TEMPS LATE THIS WEEK BUT SNOWCOVER IN THE
VALLEY IS THE UNKNOWN AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THURSDAY EVENT.

THIS ENTIRE FCST WAS COOLED CONSIDERABLY FROM PRIOR FCSTS PER
GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS.

[Steve Carpenter]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-202100-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...CHEROKEE...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
420 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005

...FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH FROM FLORIDA EARLY THIS WEEK WILL SPREAD
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR WILL BE REINFORCED
FROM THE NORTH...AND RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW IN PARTS
OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE QUITE HIGH...BUT WILL DROP TO LOWER
LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD AIR PENETRATES. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE...ESPECIALLY AT HIGH
ELEVATIONS ALONG THE TENNESSEE STATE LINE FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF HEAVY SNOWFALL
COULD OCCUR...BUT IF A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
IS IDENTIFIED...A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD
BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.

THE COLD WEATHER AND SNOWY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK...WITH A COUPLE MORE PERIODS OF NORTHWEST FLOW SNOWFALL
POSSIBLE.

$$
JONES