Significant Thanksgiving LES Likely...

[nystate]

I miss it!!!

Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
557 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2005

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-222215-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER...
NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE...BUFFALO...
BATAVIA...WARSAW...GENESEO...CANANDAIGUA...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...
WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
557 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2005

...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF
LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FROM LATE THANKSGIVING DAY ON...

.LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AND PRODUCE A GENERAL LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR
ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO START
THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE UP LATER THANKSGIVING DAY WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW RIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN OF THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL
WILL BE GREATEST IN AREAS FROM JUST SOUTH OF BUFFALO INTO THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OFF LAKE ERIE. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL BE FROM JUST SOUTH OF WATERTOWN
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. THIS COULD EASILY END UP
BEING A BIG EVENT.

KEEP UP TO DATE ON LATER FORECASTS DURING THIS HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE ISSUED LATER TODAY IF
NEW MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE SAME AS WHAT WE ARE SEEING THIS MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

[nystate]

NYZ006>008-230500-
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0002.051124T1800Z-051125T2300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
352 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

A WELL ALIGNED FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DEVELOP THANKSGIVING MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL FLOW OVER
RELATIVELY WARM LAKE ONTARIO WATERS AND PRODUCE BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS WILL FALL
SOUTH OF WATERTOWN ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE A TIME PERIOD WHEN THE LAKE
BANDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AND APPROACH THE WATERTOWN AREA.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REACH A FOOT IN THE WATCH AREA...BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE BANDS
AMOUNTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HEAVIER...POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING
2 FEET OR MORE.

THE HEAVY LAKE SNOWS WILL BE COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS...CAUSING
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

SINCE THIS IS A SIGINIFICANT TIME OF TRAVEL DUE TO THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY...TRAVEL OPTIONS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED VERY CAREFULLY.

[nystate]

Local mets now calling upwards of 3 feet of snow from this storm...

[nystate]

Woooooohhooo!

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
535 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-251045-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-
LEWIS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
535 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK AND THE ADJOINING WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...
AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM NEAR LAKE ONTARIO TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT BRINGING A GENERAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TO THE REGION.

A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR BEHIND THE LOW CROSSING THE
WARMER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL PRODUCE BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES.

THE HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS OFF LAKE ERIE WILL FALL FROM SOUTH OF
BUFFALO INTO CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE SNOWS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE FROM SOUTH OF WATERTOWN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM A FOOT TO 2 FEET IN THE MOST
PERSISTENT LAKE BANDS IN THE WARNING AREAS.

THE HEAVY LAKE SNOWS WILL BE COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG WINDS...
CAUSING FREQUENT WHITE OUT TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT
TIMES...IN THE WARNING AREAS.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE HEAVY LAKE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
ENDING BY SATURDAY MORNING

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

$$

[nystate]

3 feet PLUS, baby! I know I don't live there any more, but it still makes me feel good!



NYZ006>008-242300-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0001.051124T1800Z-051125T2300Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1151 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY.

THE HEAVIEST LAKE SNOWS WILL FALL FROM SOUTH OF WATERTOWN
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FEET...OR
POSSIBLY EVEN MORE...IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE BANDS.

THE HEAVY LAKE SNOWS WILL BE COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG WINDS.
THIS COMBINATION WILL CAUSE FREQUENT WHITE OUT TO NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...BE
PREPARED FOR HEAVY SNOW AND VERY DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.
TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS AND IT IS LIKELY THAT MANY
ROADS WILL BECOME IMPASSABLE...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE
81 AND ROUTE 11.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

[stormyweather]

Posting from Chautauqua County here, in one of the LE snow band areas, just south of Dewittville.

As of half hour ago, Jamestown was pretty clear, (with about 8" on the ground) Drove from there home about 5 miles south of Mayville, NY. There is about 1' on the ground here.

The wind is picking up however. Will post tomorrow if it gets bad. The plows are out, but bridges and overpasses are very slippery for all but 4 wheel drives. Travel is almost non-existant.

The few big rigs we saw were traveling with hazard lights blinking. Temp is about 12 degrees.

[Dick Pache]

Two of my favorate Places to cross country ski!

Chautauqua overland trail and Tug Hill south of Watertown.

and here I am stuck in Tegucigalpa Honduras.

[nystate]

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
816 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005

NYZ006>008-250330-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
816 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005

.NOW...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION.
AT 8 PM, HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF OSWEGO COUNTY, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LEWIS COUNTY, AND THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF JEFFERSON COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT NORTHWARD BEFORE FINALLY BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY, WITH
THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS REACHING 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR WITHIN
THIS BAND. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD LIKE
CONDITIONS, ZERO VISIBILITY, AND BITTER COLD WIND CHILL READINGS.
TRAVEL WITHIN THIS LAKE EFFECT BAND IS UNDOUBTLY EXTREMELY BAD.
ANY UNTREATED SURFACES ARE LIKELY TO BE VERY SLIPPERY, SO USE
CAUTION IF YOU MUST BE OUT TONIGHT.

$$


Look at that band- beautiful!!