Prediction on how cold it could get in Texas

[Johnny]

Sorry guys...I already gave Arizona Desert the website address to Storm2k!!!! hehe

[jasons2k]

I say no... it'll be cold, but nothing out of the ordinary or extreme.

Houston might struggle to see Mid 40's one day, but that's it.

If last week we struggled in the upper 30's, then I'll bet next week we'll struggle to reach possibly the low 30's. This could be an alot colder air mass, and not as shallow. Some pro mets are saying we'll have a high of 32 next week. BURR!!

Exactly...I agree Tyler. And for everyone (on other TX threads) saying that Joe Bastardi always over-hypes situations...he got the last one almost perfectly for Houston. I emailed him a WEEK before the event and in his response he told me that he predicted a cloudy, windy Thursday with highs in the middle 30s. That is exactly what we got. I think if the last arctic blast was that cold, that this one will probably be colder. Why? Well, Joe Bastardi thinks it may ... also The 18Z GFS run brings the -5C 850mb line into north Houston by Tues./Wed. and the 0C 850mb line all the way into the Gulf (with some snow) ... Also, the lesser looked at models (JMA, NOGAPS, etc.) are predicting a very cold airmass, and they can sometimes see future events better then some of the other models ... and finally because of the overall weather pattern. The negative (forecast to go more negative) AO could lead to extreme cold down the plains, and I think that this will not be our last arctic shot of the winter. So far (on a nationwide scale) this has been one of the coldest Decembers in a long time. LOTS of the country is currently well below normal overall for the month, and with more shots of arctic air on the way...this December could finish out on the list of the top 10 coldest (on a nationwide scale) in the last 50 years. I think anything is possible in the weather today. After ANOTHER record-breaking hurricane season, this winter is off to a crazy start (and we are only 2 weeks in). Just because Houston has not had a 1"+ snowfall since 1989, doesn't mean that tomorrow it won't have a 2 foot snowfall (it has happened before). Crazy things will happen over the next few years in this pattern we are in, and we should be prepared for everything. These are exciting times weather wise, and I am ready for anything that comes my way (including possible wintry weather next week).

Yep, Joe B. got the last one. Sorta.

If you see a big blue H coming down the plains and predict miserable cold for Texas every time, eventually you'll hit one the NWS missed.

Brent, I think you're closer to the mark. However, I would not be surprised to see highs in the 30's but I don't expect lows to get below 25 or so.

I prefer to believe the mets whose forecasts verify rather than just listening to someone who tells me what I want to hear.

[Air Force Met]

how cold can it get in Texas all you have to do is review 1899.wacky things happend during that outbreak

OK...had to chime in on that one...this won't even be close to 1899 down here. In my opnion....this is not even close to 1983 or 1989....or even 2004.

[Mathias]

Sorry guys...I already gave Arizona Desert the website address to Storm2k!!!! hehe

Giving Arizona Desert a link to this site is akin to the Allies giving the Nazis the atomic bomb back in WWII.

[WXextreme]

how cold can it get in Texas all you have to do is review 1899.wacky things happend during that outbreak

OK...had to chime in on that one...this won't even be close to 1899 down here. In my opnion....this is not even close to 1983 or 1989....or even 2004.

I would tend agree with you on that AFM.
In order to get that kind of extreme cold, it needs to be alot colder from the source region.

The only thing I will tend to watch in the next couple of days will be for the "EXPANSION" of -20 and -30 below temperatures in central Canada. If you notice the time frame of animation that area of pink should actually tend to shrink during the daylight hours but it is actually beginning to grow. We will see if that trend continues. If it does, then I may need to back off on just how cold it could get. ?

http://maps.wunderground.com/global/Reg ... ature.html

A

[f5]

SE Texas was spoiled that snowfall south of I-10 was a "freak" event

[corpusbreeze]

In defence of JB. Last year he nailed the snow event 3 days out, and 2 days out made the comment that the snow for S. Texas was more of a go than no. Not one met here dare you the Word snow, only after the first flakes fell did they say snow.

[Air Force Met]

In defence of JB. Last year he nailed the snow event 3 days out, and 2 days out made the comment that the snow for S. Texas was more of a go than no. Not one met here dare you the Word snow, only after the first flakes fell did they say snow.

First...nailing it once in a while ain't that great when it comes to snow down here. I think if you go back into the records of when he hints we could see some snow and when we actually get it...you'll see a lot of misses.

Second...I wasn't active on the winter part of S2K until the snow...but I was thinking snow/freezing rain 10 days out. Within a week I was pretty sure we would see something close to Christmas and was getting snickered at when I forecasted a white (dusting) Christmas. He didn't have a monopoly on that forecast. 3 days out I was rock solid on it. It wasn't that hard of a forecast...especially 3 days out.