Is this Janurary or June?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here are a few snipits from Joe Bastardis (accuweather.com professional) evening post:

Here is my take: I am back in November, Jan style. I think Jan 20-30 the NAO is negative. The arctic oscillation trends to positive as the Siberian vortex splits with a piece chopping apart Cahirs connection for a week but the other piece coming into Hudson bay. This sets up a pattern that reminds me of what happens when I get up in the morning realize what I am looking at...UGHH. We are left with the separation of cold pools with one across northern canada and the other across Siberia into the far east. In fact by the 15th this is about the weirdest thing I have ever seen. A giant trof extends from near europe through the northern part of Hudson bay back to the Aleutians through the far east and then back tot he vortex over Siberia.

That kind of pattern cant hold, so here is what has to happen. As the vortex in Siberia sinks south it has to weaken then head for the far east again. This allows cahirs connection to re-establish itself. This sets in motion a jail break pattern, where alot of different things are happening all at once. NO more classic neg PDO, and we are left with the Bastardi named Garjessie, the atlantic signal taking over of warm water off Africa. The result, negative, and perhaps strongly NAO from the 20th on.

Then later in the post...

This means a colder, wetter pattern develops down the plains for the mid and late month. However by that time the turn to colder will be needed to balance out the warmth that has occured and at this time I see no way that our idea of less than normal precip is not valid for the winter. i still like the temp forecast as I feel a 2-3 week period similar to what happened earlier can occur. The plains as folks living out there know have very little room for mid ground patterns and the shorter, the better chance of wild swings

The southeast gets their shot at seeing snow friday, then its another two weeks, but boy, if I have my druthers, late Jan and Feb could be alot of fun in the south.

I think he makes valid points and I feel that late Jan. to early Feb. will be a wild ride. It should see temps. similar to or colder than the cold period of December and the south (as Joe Bastardi mentioned) may be in for a wetter pattern with a few chances of snow! Also (not shown above), Joe mentions that if it is going to be this cold in FL this weekend (freeze to Orlando) with Canada warm; then when canada is cold and citrus killing freeze could threaten Florida, which means it would have to come to us and the SE first. Interesting...

[Johnny]

Lots of ifs, ands or buts with Joe's column...that's for sure. In other words, it's just a wait an see game.

[Air Force Met]

Lots of ifs, ands or buts with Joe's column...that's for sure. In other words, it's just a wait an see game.

And lot's of backdoors out of the forecast if it doesn't pan out.

[gboudx]

Lots of ifs, ands or buts with Joe's column...that's for sure. In other words, it's just a wait an see game.

And lot's of backdoors out of the forecast if it doesn't pan out.

Yep. But I guess he needs to try and create some excitement for this boring pattern we're in. Gots to pay the bills you know.

[jasons2k]

Lots of ifs, ands or buts with Joe's column...that's for sure. In other words, it's just a wait an see game.

And lot's of backdoors out of the forecast if it doesn't pan out.

Yeah, he said almost all the same stuff back in Nov/Dec about January. It's always "next month" that's gonna bring out the polar bears........

[Brent]

I am about to give up on winter as well... I do think brief cold snaps will happen, but it's hard enough to get snow with prolonged cold snaps, and even harder when it's a brief shot.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't know about you guys, but today felt nice! Its been in the 60s with sunny skies and a breeze. In fact, this is the coolest it has been since christmas day and tomorrow will be even colder. We will reach the middle 30s tonight and the lower to middle 30s tomorrow. I think this weather is perfect, but not as cold as I think it gets by late month (I'm still holding out hope).

[Extremeweatherguy]

A few points from Joe Bastardi's morning post:

8) Implication of the European.. is the Plains cool mightily by day 10 as Canada chills and trofs actually have some cold air with them.

9) Pattern worldwide looks very unstable and so large model swings and errors are likely.

By the way (this may be one of those wild swings..or it may be the GFS catching onto something) the GFS is showing a much colder look to the nation in 10-15 days. I think Joe will be right this time (regardless of what you may think), and I think we end January on a cold note.

[Extremeweatherguy]

To defend Joe Bastardi...I would like to point out that about a week ago he called for a freeze to affect Orlando and Tampa this weekend. When he put forth this forecast, the NWS in Melbourne,FL was still calling for lows near 50 in Orlando this Saturday. As of the latest forecast, 32 is expected in Orlando Saturday night. So he does make some pretty good calls at times. Also, in his evening post he mentions that this trof that will bring a freeze to Orlando is coming from a WARM Canada. As Canada cools this month, trofs to come in 10-15 days could be much, much colder...in fact they could be potent enough to bring citrus killing freezes to Texas and Florida. If the same scenario happening this weekend were to occur when canada was cold...then Orlando could have easily reached the teens or lower 20s (19 is Orlando's all time record low). We need to beware later this month...

here is a piece of his evening post:

WHERE IS THE COLD AIR? Canada will chill the next couple of weeks overall, and I have already stated my idea on that and we know the far east and Europe have been cold and overall are staying that way. But what is forecasted to go on in Central Asia is off the wall as that has to be one of the coldest air masses in years that will develop there. It is developing over the arctic source regions then spreading out, but until that vortex releases the most it can do is ooze cold across the pole.

[Scorpion]

Sweet, hope we get a good front that rivals 2003. I think it will happen later this month, in about 2-3 weeks. Climo favors it.

[jkt21787]

Hopes are dimming rapidly...winter is looking more and more to be over everyday...at least for the Southern US.

[jkt21787]

To defend Joe Bastardi...I would like to point out that about a week ago he called for a freeze to affect Orlando and Tampa this weekend. When he put forth this forecast, the NWS in Melbourne,FL was still calling for lows near 50 in Orlando this Saturday. As of the latest forecast, 32 is expected in Orlando Saturday night. So he does make some pretty good calls at times. Also, in his evening post he mentions that this trof that will bring a freeze to Orlando is coming from a WARM Canada. As Canada cools this month, trofs to come in 10-15 days could be much, much colder...in fact they could be potent enough to bring citrus killing freezes to Texas and Florida. If the same scenario happening this weekend were to occur when canada was cold...then Orlando could have easily reached the teens or lower 20s (19 is Orlando's all time record low). We need to beware later this month...

here is a piece of his evening post:

WHERE IS THE COLD AIR? Canada will chill the next couple of weeks overall, and I have already stated my idea on that and we know the far east and Europe have been cold and overall are staying that way. But what is forecasted to go on in Central Asia is off the wall as that has to be one of the coldest air masses in years that will develop there. It is developing over the arctic source regions then spreading out, but until that vortex releases the most it can do is ooze cold across the pole.

Sounds like more hype from JB...as usual...

BTW, are these quotes coming from Accuweather pro? I thought quoting of his columns (unless it was free for the day) was not allowed?

[Brent]

WHERE IS THE COLD AIR? Canada will chill the next couple of weeks overall, and I have already stated my idea on that and we know the far east and Europe have been cold and overall are staying that way. But what is forecasted to go on in Central Asia is off the wall as that has to be one of the coldest air masses in years that will develop there. It is developing over the arctic source regions then spreading out, but until that vortex releases the most it can do is ooze cold across the pole.

*yawn*

[Cookiely]

MAYBE THE COLD WILL KILL OFF SOME OF THE MOSQUITOS!
Wind Chill Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
353 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2006

...LOW WIND CHILL VALUES EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL USHER IN A COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS SO FAR THIS SEASON OVER SPREADING
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-062100-
/O.NEW.KTBW.WC.Y.0001.060107T0700Z-060107T1400Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER...
INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA...
PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS
353 AM EST FRI JAN 6 2006

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO
9 AM EST SATURDAY.

WINDS AROUND 10 MPH TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
COMBINE WITH THE COLD AIR TO CREATE BRISK CONDITIONS. LOWEST WIND
CHILL READINGS OVER THE NATURE COAST WILL DROP TO AROUND 20
DEGREES. LOWEST WIND CHILL READINGS AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL DROP BETWEEN 25 AND 30 DEGREES. LOWEST
WIND CHILL READINGS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL DROP TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

RESIDENTS VENTURING OUT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD DRESS
WARMLY. SEVERAL LAYERS OF CLOTHING WILL INSULATE YOU BETTER THAN A
SINGLE COAT OR JACKET.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN WIND CHILL INDEX VALUES WILL
DROP TO 35 OR LOWER...EXCEPT 25 OR LOWER ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
AND SUMTER COUNTY...FOR 3 OR MORE HOURS.

$$

[JenyEliza]

MAYBE THE COLD WILL KILL OFF SOME OF THE MOSQUITOS!


$$

You still have mozzies? WOW.

I think the last of ours died/left around Halloween.

Sorry they're still hanging around your parts.

[O Town]

I don't think they ever died here last year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

WOW! Anyone take a look at Accuweathers 15-day outlook for Spring, TX!!! It gets cold near the end...in fact here is the forecast they have issued for the last few days:

Tuesday the 17th
High - 61
Low - 33
Cold, windy and rainy.

Wednesday the 18th
High - 55
Low - 29
Very windy (gusts over 40mph) and cold.

Thursday the 19th
High - 52
Low - 28
Mostly sunny and cold.

Friday the 20th
High - 52
Low - 30
Increasing clouds.

By the look of that forecast...WINTER IS NOT OVER!

update at 5:40pm: This forecast has been unchanged. Looks cold to me!