Looks like chillier weather and reinforcing fronts - including at least one strong one - are in store for Florida, including southern Florida...
000
FLUS42 KMFL 091925 CCA
HWOMFL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
225 PM EST THU FEB 9 2006
FLZ063-066>075-101900-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
225 PM EST THU FEB 9 2006
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
WAVES: SEAS WILL BE 5 TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM THIS EVENING AND WILL
SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT.
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT...
...NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INLAND LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO NEAR FREEZING OVER INLAND AREAS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT http://WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.
$$
Many times this year, I have noticed that the Miami NWS often underplays cold air when it moves into southern Florida. I have seen that in several of the discussions.
By the way, the fire danger has increased in much of Florida due to the approaching cold air...
RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
327 PM EST THU FEB 9 2006
...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOW RH
AND WIND...
.VERY DRY AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE STATE...AND RH VALUES
WILL DROP TO 35 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN...
CENTRAL AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN
BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR MORE THAN 4 HOURS...IN ADDITION WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
FLZ039-042-043-052-056-057-061-092300-
/O.CON.KTBW.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-060209T2300Z/
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-
327 PM EST THU FEB 9 2006
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WHICH WILL SUPPORT 4 OR MORE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT DURING THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES.
THIS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR BURNING ACTIVITIES AS
ANY FIRE IGNITED IN THE WARNING AREA MAY SPREAD EASILY.
A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.
$$
Strong Cold Front For Florida (Including S. Fla.) Saturday
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Brent
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- Posts: 38090
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- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
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Look at this! WOW... 0 degree line down to Naples and West Palm Beach!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_078l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_078l.gif
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#neversummer
-
MiamiensisWx
-
MiamiensisWx
-
Hybridstorm_November2001
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2811
- Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
- Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
- Contact:
-
Scorpion
Brent wrote:Look at this! WOW... 0 degree line down to Naples and West Palm Beach!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_078l.gif
My god... no way that will verify... but still. Thats incredible.
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Tyler
-
Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
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- Location: Florida
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Cookiely
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- Age: 74
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- Location: Tampa, Florida
SNOW SNOW A FLAKE OF SNOW. I GET LIKE A KID JUST READING THE WORD SNOW IN OUR FORECAST DISCUSSION. WHO KNOWS. HURRICANE SEASON 04 AND 05, EARTHQUAKES IN THE GOM, WHY NOT A SNOW FLAKE FOR TAMPA. I'VE SEEN SNOW FLURRIES TWICE IN TAMPA WHICH LASTED ABOUT TWENTY MINUTES.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 110814
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
314 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TODAY...
...UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - MON)...STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. LOOKING AT RAIN AREA UPSTREAM...LOOKS
LIKE LIKELY POPS IN ORDER FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA
TODAY...WITH MODERATE CHANCE SOUTH. IT WILL TURN WINDY ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND 20+ MPH SUSTAINED WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...THUS WILL ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADV FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA FOR TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID 60S NORTH TO
MID 70S SOUTH BEFORE FROPA. RAIN AREA SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF OUR
AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS STRONG CAA GETS UNDERWAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. IT WILL
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS...HOWEVER WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL JUST SHY OF ADV CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING.
COLD AND WINDY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOON! SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED BY STRATO CU...
THICKEST CLOSER TO THE GULF WATERS. STRONG BL WINDS AND STEEP LOLVL
LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY AFTERNOON AND LAKE WIND
ADV WILL NEED TO BE RE ISSUED FOR SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD AND BREEZY. VERY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INLAND FORECAST AREA. WAS A BIT HESITANT TO GO AS
COLD AS MAV FOR LOWS MON MORNING GIVEN THAT A SECONDARY UPR TROF
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY PUT THE BRAKES ON FALLING TEMPS. EITHER
WAY...A COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
SPEAKING OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...MODELS PROG THIS WAVE TO
PASS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z MONDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE...IT
LOOKS INTERESTING TO SEE SUCH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE IN COMBINATION
WITH A SHORT WAVE AND A BRIEF SURGE OF LOW LVL MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF. CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT IF THE
MOISTURE WAS DEEP ENOUGH AND WITH SUFFICIENT LIFT...PERHAPS THE
NORTH HALF OF OUR CWA MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES MONDAY MORNING
(FREEZING LEVEL TOO HIGH SOUTHERN HALF TO SUPPORT FROZEN PCPN).
GIVEN THAT CONDITIONS NEED TO BE NEARLY PERFECT FOR SUCH AN EVENT TO
OCCUR HERE...CLIMO STILL GETS ALOT OF WEIGHT IN THIS FORECAST...AND
AS SUCH I WOULDN`T GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT SEEING WHITE STUFF JUST
YET. INSTEAD...WE WILL CLOSELY WATCH HOW THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
EVOLVES TODAY AND SUNDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IF CLOUDS THICKEN UP
AND WINDS INCREASE SOONER THAN EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL TEMPS MAY END UP
BEING TOO WARM FOR FROZEN PCPN. OTHERWISE...THE DAYTIME MONDAY
WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM (MON NGT-FRI)...IF THE 00Z GFS RUN IS CORRECT...TUESDAY
MORNING COULD BE THE COLDEST THUS FAR THIS SEASON. WE ALREADY KNOW
THE AIRMASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES. IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP RIGHT
OVER NORTH FLORIDA...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS
REALLY SETS THE STAGE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE BUT STILL MID 20S
FOR THE NATURE COAST AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT MEX GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR 20 DEGREES
TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE NATURE COAST...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA AWAY
FROM THE COAST. IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND...WE WILL HAVE TO
KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OUR FORECAST LOW TEMPS...AND THIS COULD
MEAN A SIGNIFICANT HARD FREEZE FOR THE NATURE COAST.
ONCE WE GET BY TUESDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC WITH INCREASING EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 60
OR SO NORTH AND CENTRAL...AND MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH...WE FINALLY
GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 70 NORTH
TO THE MID 70S SOUTH. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S NORTH...AND UPPER 70S TO
PERHAPS EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
000
FXUS62 KTBW 110814
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
314 AM EST SAT FEB 11 2006
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TODAY...
...UNSEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - MON)...STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO
MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY. LOOKING AT RAIN AREA UPSTREAM...LOOKS
LIKE LIKELY POPS IN ORDER FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF OUR AREA
TODAY...WITH MODERATE CHANCE SOUTH. IT WILL TURN WINDY ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND 20+ MPH SUSTAINED WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES...THUS WILL ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADV FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA FOR TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE MID 60S NORTH TO
MID 70S SOUTH BEFORE FROPA. RAIN AREA SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF OUR
AREA DURING THE EVENING...BUT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AS STRONG CAA GETS UNDERWAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. IT WILL
FEEL COLDER THAN THAT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS...HOWEVER WIND CHILL
VALUES WILL FALL JUST SHY OF ADV CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING.
COLD AND WINDY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW 50S
DURING THE AFTERNOON! SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED BY STRATO CU...
THICKEST CLOSER TO THE GULF WATERS. STRONG BL WINDS AND STEEP LOLVL
LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER WINDY AFTERNOON AND LAKE WIND
ADV WILL NEED TO BE RE ISSUED FOR SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD AND BREEZY. VERY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND TEMPS FALLING TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INLAND FORECAST AREA. WAS A BIT HESITANT TO GO AS
COLD AS MAV FOR LOWS MON MORNING GIVEN THAT A SECONDARY UPR TROF
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT MAY PUT THE BRAKES ON FALLING TEMPS. EITHER
WAY...A COLD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
SPEAKING OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...MODELS PROG THIS WAVE TO
PASS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z MONDAY. AT FIRST GLANCE...IT
LOOKS INTERESTING TO SEE SUCH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE IN COMBINATION
WITH A SHORT WAVE AND A BRIEF SURGE OF LOW LVL MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF. CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT IF THE
MOISTURE WAS DEEP ENOUGH AND WITH SUFFICIENT LIFT...PERHAPS THE
NORTH HALF OF OUR CWA MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SNOW FLAKES MONDAY MORNING
(FREEZING LEVEL TOO HIGH SOUTHERN HALF TO SUPPORT FROZEN PCPN).
GIVEN THAT CONDITIONS NEED TO BE NEARLY PERFECT FOR SUCH AN EVENT TO
OCCUR HERE...CLIMO STILL GETS ALOT OF WEIGHT IN THIS FORECAST...AND
AS SUCH I WOULDN`T GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT SEEING WHITE STUFF JUST
YET. INSTEAD...WE WILL CLOSELY WATCH HOW THE SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
EVOLVES TODAY AND SUNDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IF CLOUDS THICKEN UP
AND WINDS INCREASE SOONER THAN EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL TEMPS MAY END UP
BEING TOO WARM FOR FROZEN PCPN. OTHERWISE...THE DAYTIME MONDAY
WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM (MON NGT-FRI)...IF THE 00Z GFS RUN IS CORRECT...TUESDAY
MORNING COULD BE THE COLDEST THUS FAR THIS SEASON. WE ALREADY KNOW
THE AIRMASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY WITH DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE
TEENS AND TWENTIES. IT LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP RIGHT
OVER NORTH FLORIDA...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS
REALLY SETS THE STAGE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE BUT STILL MID 20S
FOR THE NATURE COAST AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE COAST. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT MEX GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR 20 DEGREES
TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE NATURE COAST...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA AWAY
FROM THE COAST. IF MODELS CONTINUE THIS TREND...WE WILL HAVE TO
KNOCK A FEW MORE DEGREES OFF OUR FORECAST LOW TEMPS...AND THIS COULD
MEAN A SIGNIFICANT HARD FREEZE FOR THE NATURE COAST.
ONCE WE GET BY TUESDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC WITH INCREASING EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES RIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. AFTER A COOL DAY ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY AROUND 60
OR SO NORTH AND CENTRAL...AND MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTH...WE FINALLY
GET BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 70 NORTH
TO THE MID 70S SOUTH. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S NORTH...AND UPPER 70S TO
PERHAPS EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
&&
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