I Know it's 7 Days out but.....

[Windtalker1]

We may be looking at another Major Snow Event for Souther New England around the 19th.... WILL HAVE TO WATCH...... WEAK SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE
FNT OVR THE TN VLLY. BOTH 00Z ECMWF AND GFS HAVE THIS FEATURE...AND
TRACK IT ENE PASSING S OF NEW ENGLAND. ALTH...00Z GFS/MEX MOS HAS
CHC POPS SAT NGT AND SUN INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THIS IS A DAY 7
FCST...WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FM MDL GUID AND INSERT CHC POPS.
http://www.weather.gov/view/states.php?state=CT&map=on

[WindRunner]

Definately seems likely - the LWX AFD mentions highs in the low 60s Friday and possibly in the mid-20s on Sunday. That's a strong system!

.LONG TERM (MON NGHT-SUN)...
ZONAL FLO AT H5 AT BEGN OF PD AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES E TO W ACRSS G
OF MEX TO POSN OFF SE U.S. COAST WED. SW FLO ARND SFC HIGH WILL
PROV LLVL WAA AS 1000-850 MB THCK DVRG. H85 TEMPS REACH +4C 00Z FRI
WHICH WOULD GIVE SFC TEMPS IN L60S WITH FULL SUN. HWVR ANTCPT TO BE
SOME CLD COVER AND MEX GDNC AT IAD LKS REASONABLE WITH TEMPS IN M50S
WED THRU FRI AS RAPID MELT TAKES PLACE...AND HYDRO THREAT FOR SMALL
STREAMS AND TRIBS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

NEXT WX MAKER FOR RGN LOOKS TO BE A SFC LOW MOVING NE FROM THE
MIDWEST ACRSS THE ESTRN GRT LAKES TWD QUE. LAST NIGHTS GFS ENSMBLE
PROGS MOVING A COLD FRNT THRU REGN ON FRI DURING THE DAY SO WL GO
WITH CHC POPS LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI. LOOKING TO CLR OUT ON FRI
NIGHT ACRSS MUCH OF CWA XCPT FOR LAKE EFFECT SHRA IN WSTRN 5
COUNTIES. THIS FROPA AND SUBSQNT HIGH TAPS ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR REGN
ON SUN AS DAY 7 MEAN GFS ENSMBL HAS -16C AIR AT H85 WHICH WOULD GIVE
US HIGHS ONLY IN THE M20S ON NW FLO WTH FULL SUN...BRRR.

[btangy]

12Z GFS had 1000-500 thicknesses approaching 492dm and 850mb temps -24C over interior New England next weekend. I haven't seen that cold of an airmass forecasted by the GFS to drop into the lower 48 in quite sometime. It would mean max temps in the upper 10s at most and lows well below zero in many locations (probably record low territory). Given the huge contrast in airmasses, the potential is definitely there for a big storm. However, given that there isn't a big trough and amplified jet on the E coast, the setup doesn't look very promising for a big storm. But, given that this last blizzard wasn't picked up on until the middle of last week, things can change. Will definitely keep an eye on this.

[Jim Cantore]

winter has returned with force

[Windtalker1]

12Z GFS had 1000-500 thicknesses approaching 492dm and 850mb temps -24C over interior New England next weekend. I haven't seen that cold of an airmass forecasted by the GFS to drop into the lower 48 in quite sometime. It would mean max temps in the upper 10s at most and lows well below zero in many locations (probably record low territory). Given the huge contrast in airmasses, the potential is definitely there for a big storm. However, given that there isn't a big trough and amplified jet on the E coast, the setup doesn't look very promising for a big storm. But, given that this last blizzard wasn't picked up on until the middle of last week, things can change. Will definitely keep an eye on this.

With Temps to drop like a rocket, there must be a big trough that will be pushing through late in the weekend. We will have to wait and see and will know more come Wednesday/Thursday.