LONG,WET, SOGGY, WINTERY week ahead

[azsnowman]

HOLY MOLY! Sounds to be a VERY wet, VERY unsettled week ahead for us...this past week has been GREAT, the break was WONDERFUL but it's time to get back to the SNOW MACHINE!!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

Area Forecast For: The White Mountains
Issued: February 10, 2007 10:14:36 MST

Rest of today: Partly sunny. Light and variable winds becoming southwest up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Highs 43 to 53 above 7000 feet...around 58 below 7000 feet.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a 10 percent chance of rain and snow showers. Southwest winds up to 15 mph in the evening becoming light. Lows 27 to 33 above 7000 feet...around 37 below 7000 feet.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain and snow showers. Cooler. Snow level around 7500 feet. Light and variable winds becoming southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph in the afternoon. Highs 37 to 45 above 7000 feet...47 to 53 below 7000 feet.

Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow and rain showers. Snow level around 6500 feet. Southwest winds up to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the evening. Lows 22 to 28 above 7000 feet...around 32 below 7000 feet.

Monday: Partly sunny. Slight chance of snow showers in the morning...then slight chance of snow and rain showers in the afternoon. Snow level around 6000 feet. West winds up to 15 mph. Highs 37 to 45 above 7000 feet...46 to 52 below 7000 feet. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.

Monday night: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain and snow showers. Lows 19 to 25 above 7000 feet...around 29 below 7000 feet.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs 31 to 39 above 7000 feet...40 to 46 below 7000 feet.

Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows 15 to 21 above 7000 feet...around 25 below 7000 feet.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Highs 30 to 38 above 7000 feet...40 to 46 below 7000 feet.

Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Lows 14 to 20 above 7000 feet...around 24 below 7000 feet.

Thursday: Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of snow showers. Highs 33 to 41 above 7000 feet...43 to 49 below 7000 feet.

Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow showers. Lows 13 to 19 above 7000 feet...around 24 below 7000 feet.

Friday: Partly sunny with a 10 percent chance of snow showers. Highs 37 to 45 above 7000 feet...46 to 52 below 7000 feet.

[azsnowman]

CAUTION....long, drawn out AFD ahead


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KFGZ 102202 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 300 PM MST SAT FEB 10 2007 .SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH ARIZONA TODAY...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD. ON SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH A COLDER PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO COME DOWN TO AROUND 5000 FEET. &&


.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL ALLOW A WEAKENING OCCLUDED FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.



EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FROM FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX ABOVE 7500 FEET. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 TONIGHT. BY LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND THE 6000 TO 6500 FOOT LEVEL BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE THAT ELEVATION...AMOUNTS FROM TRACE UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE WITH 3 INCHES ABOVE 8500 FEET.




A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY...LEAVING THE AREA WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER DEEPER AND COLDER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET. THIS SYSTEM HAS WEAK OROGRAPHIC AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING TO WORK ON THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER THE ATMOS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GOOD ICE MICRO PHYSICS. FOR THIS REASON THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 5500 FEET...MAINLY ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND WEAK FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD FORM AND PERSISTENTLY MOVE OVER SOME FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS THUS PRODUCING HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS SYSTEM FOR A POSSIBLE SNOW ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.


FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FORM ALONG THE WEST COAST...HOWEVER THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE AND A FEW WEEK DISTURBANCE TO COME OVER THE RIDGE AND DIVE SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. FOR NOW THE TIMING OF THESE WEAKER SYSTEM WILL BE TOO DIFFICULT TO CALL UNTIL 12 TO 24 HOURS OUT...SO WE LEFT SOME LOW GRADE PRECIP PROBABILITIES IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.