Texas winter: Any early thoughts?

[gboudx]

I don't see jeff's morning email posted, so here ya go:

First strong cold front of the fall season forecast to arrive on Monday.

AM temps. range from 56 at Tomball to 72 at Port Lavaca this morning as dry air mass has settled over the region allowing radiational cooling toward the dewpoint. Dry and fair weather will rule through late Saturday before the change to more unsettled weather by Sunday.

Long wave trough entering the Pacific NW this morning will evolve into deep trough over the western US by Sunday. In response surface flow over the western Gulf and TX will return to the SE with pool of deep tropical moisture ready to surge inland. Feel the moisture surge will be rapid with showers and a few thunderstorms possible by Sunday afternoon as Caribbean moisture is advected into the region.

Early Next Week:

Models have come into much better agreement with the GFS being about ½ right and the ECMWF being about ½ right yesterday. Both now agree that a strong front will cross the state on Monday and that the upper trough will cut-off from the main flow and park over the southern plains for much of next week.

Will tackle the frontal push first: Air mass should be moist and unstable by late Sunday with showers and thunderstorms streaming northward off the Gulf. Strong frontal forcing early to midday Monday should produce a line of thunderstorms along and behind the front. GFS 1035-1040mb surface high bridges the Rockies and drops into the plains ushering in a much colder air mass. Expect frontal passage from early Monday to Monday evening across the area with high temps. being before the front and temps. falling rapidly in the post frontal strong cold air advection.

Onset of cold air advection will be very strong with NAM and GFS showing 925mb winds out of the NW at 40-50kts late Monday into Tuesday. Will likely see sustained surface winds of 20-30mph inland and 25-35mph along the coast. As cold air strikes and spreads across the still warm Gulf of Mexico will likely see winds gust to over gale force. Small craft advisories are a given…and offshore gale warnings may be needed. Inland wind advisories and lake wind advisories will likely be needed.

With the upper trough forecast to cut-off over OK and sit and spin for much of next week, mid to upper level SW flow will upglide over the cold dome at the surface (isentropic lift pattern…overrunning). Clouds and a chance of rain may linger much of next week in the post frontal air mass making conditions damp and cool. We will see if in fact the trough cuts-off as forecast as the GFS 500mb height anomaly over the southern plains for the middle of next week is nearing -21dm.

As for temps. a drop of 10-15 degrees is likely with the frontal passage on Monday. Continued cold air advection and post frontal showers will help lower temps. even more. If the clouds linger highs on Tuesday and Wednesday are much too warm as the models are showing a 10-15 degree diurnal range. For now will show temps. falling into the 60’s Monday afternoon and into the low to mid 50’s by Tuesday morning. For Tuesday, highs in the upper 60’s look possible, but if clouds linger highs near 60 would be more likely. Strong NW winds will make it feel much colder as we have become very accustom to the high temps. and humidity of the last 6 months.

[CaptinCrunch]

WARM WEATHER MORE REMINISCENT OF LATE SPRING TO
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING REMAINS A BIG ISSUE.

High's in the lower 80's thru the weekend and lower 70's for next week. We had a taste of Fall, but it was only a small taste. As for winter, well maybe we'll see something by mid December.

Looking ahead to early next week with the possibility of SERVER WEATHER. Heavy rains, with the possibility of large hail and a few Tornados for the NTX area.