January 19-20, 2008 Snowstorm: Initial Thoughts

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

Simply as bad as a forecast can get. Many apologies for this disaster.

From 1/18/2008 12:25 pm:
Asheville: 2”-4”; Actual: Trace; Error: 2.0"
Atlanta: 2”-4”; Actual: 1.0"; Error: 1.0"
Birmingham: 1”-3”; Actual: Trace; Error: 1.0"
Charlotte: 3”-6”; Actual: Trace; Error: 3.0"
Columbia: 1” or less; Actual: None; Within range
Norfolk: 2”-4”; Actual: Trace; Error: 2.0"
Raleigh: 3”-6”; Actual: 0.5"; Error: 2.5"
Richmond: 1”-3”; Actual: 0.8"; Error: 0.2"

From 1/18/2008 6:28 pm:
Asheville: 1”-3”; Actual: Trace; Error: 1.0"
Atlanta: 2”-4”; Actual: 1.0"; Error: 1.0"
Birmingham: 1”-3”; Actual: Trace; Error: 1.0"
Charlotte: 2”-4”; Actual: Trace; Error: 2.0"
Columbia: 1” or less; Actual: None; Within range
Norfolk: 3”-6”; Actual: Trace; Error: 3.0"
Raleigh: 3”-6”; Actual: 0.5"; Error: 2.5"
Richmond: 0.5”-1.5”; Actual: 0.8"; Within range

[x-y-no]

It would be an extraordinary forecaster who never had a bust.

Thanks for your efforts, Don. I don't often comment, but I always read your posts.

[intricate]

Verification:

Simply as bad as a forecast can get. Many apologies for this disaster.

From 1/18/2008 12:25 pm:
Asheville: 2”-4”; Actual: Trace; Error: 2.0"
Atlanta: 2”-4”; Actual: 1.0"; Error: 1.0"
Birmingham: 1”-3”; Actual: Trace; Error: 1.0"
Charlotte: 3”-6”; Actual: Trace; Error: 3.0"
Columbia: 1” or less; Actual: None; Within range
Norfolk: 2”-4”; Actual: Trace; Error: 2.0"
Raleigh: 3”-6”; Actual: 0.5"; Error: 2.5"
Richmond: 1”-3”; Actual: 0.8"; Error: 0.2"

From 1/18/2008 6:28 pm:
Asheville: 1”-3”; Actual: Trace; Error: 1.0"
Atlanta: 2”-4”; Actual: 1.0"; Error: 1.0"
Birmingham: 1”-3”; Actual: Trace; Error: 1.0"
Charlotte: 2”-4”; Actual: Trace; Error: 2.0"
Columbia: 1” or less; Actual: None; Within range
Norfolk: 3”-6”; Actual: Trace; Error: 3.0"
Raleigh: 3”-6”; Actual: 0.5"; Error: 2.5"
Richmond: 0.5”-1.5”; Actual: 0.8"; Within range

Don't worry about it...almost every news station in our area (Piedmont of NC) got it wrong, too! Thanks for all of the insightful posts!

[Stephanie]

Don - STOP IT!

I enjoy reading your forecasts and truly appreciate your honesty. This has been a strange winter, especially for the Mid Atlantic so far in terms of snow fall.

[Coredesat]

You made a good effort, Don, don't let this get you down. Everyone's wrong from time to time.

[sphinx]

With respect to the Mid-Atlantic, the depressing part of the last week or so, is that even the fantasy storms (my term for storms at least 7 days out) are rainmakers. Given the GFS' notorious cold bias, that's probably not a good sign.

On the positive side the salt and sand trucks have been out three days the past week in the area. 0.1", 2.5", and light rain. The 2.5" barely counts since it was followed by moderate rain and turned to 1" of slush by nightfall.

Oh well, perhaps the NAM is right and we'll get a few inches on Thursday (hah!).

I frequently get asked when we'll (the DC/Balt area) get a good storm and for the last month after saying "I have no clue" a few times, I finally say February.