Potential 4 Major Nor'easter and Memorable Higher elev. snow

[cpdaman]

The models are still plenty fuzzy but the 12z models are showing a beast of a nor'easter that as of now sets it's sights on the mid-atlantic.

Depending on the amount of northern stream energy that closes off and phases with what appears to be x-tra tropical IDA (or w. gulf low and Ida mixed)....may determine how much cooler potential is with this storm.

This one needs to be watched VERY closely ....large potential for coastal flooding .....and Potential for a storm similiar to the 92 Nor'easter albeit warmer.

High elevations to the NW of the low from the mid atlantic all the way up thru New england have potential for heavy crippling snows IMO as well as flash flooding.

So to summarize ...something extra tropical is coming up the coast and is going to bring heavy rain and high winds....especially to the SE and Mid-atlantic....depending on the amount of phasing with northern stream energy this could turn into a major nor'easter with snow in high elevations Possibly (low prob IMO) wrapping around into interior Southern New england

edit. 12 Z euro has subtropical jet distrubance (W. gulf low) interacting with IDA near New orleans and picking her up and taking her ESE'ward then East then SE and then back sw toward florida by day 7.....don't think so lol.....i have heard met's say that the ECWMF's weakness is with these subtropical disturbances and interactions.....but i do think over the next TWO runs or so that the best info the Euro may have is what it does with the northern stream energy ....(timing and position) because this would be important to determine wether this is a SE/and Mid atlantic extratropical/coastal storm or a raging monster N'easter that tracks further north up the coast and ties in some cooler weather.

[Stephanie]

John Bolaris of Fox News Channel 29 in Philadelphia was hinting at a coastal storm for Wednesday through Friday. He was emphasizing the problems that the coast would face, namely beach erosion, winds and flooding.

[southmdwatcher]

It is snowing in the high mountains of western Virginia and West Virginia now. Forecast for up to 3 inches on ridges.

[Nicko999]

We've had a record amount of sunshine here thanks to a large ridge of high pressure.

[Stephanie]

Forecast discussion from NWS out of Mt. Holly, NJ:

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ


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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPHI 121329
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
829 AM EST THU NOV 12 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WHILE THE REMNANTS OF IDA WERE LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAS
CREATED STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER TODAY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER SERN CANADA AND NRN NEW
ENG. THE REMNANTS OF IDA WERE LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A
STRENGTHENING AND GUSTY NELY WIND WHICH WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE HIGH WILL ALSO SERVE TO BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT MOTION
OF THE LOW, WHICH IN TURN WILL JUST SIT AND SPIN.

RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND IS GENERALLY FROM JUST NORTH OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR EXTENDING SOUTH AND EAST. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE,
WHERE GED HAS REPORTED 1.55 INCHES THROUGH 7AM.

THE GREATEST POPS AND QPF WILL REMAIN OVER SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP OVER THE N AND W. AGAIN, A
CHANGE OF 50 MILES CAN MAKE A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE. PERIODS OF RAIN
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY, WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD SOUTH
AND E.

LATEST QPF GUID BASICALLY HAS 1 INCH PLUS FROM PHL S AND E, 2
INCHES PLUS OVER SERN NJ, KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES IN DE AND AND
THE SERN SHORE OF MD. SOME AMTS GRTR THAN 3 INCHES CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR EXTREME SERN NJ AND SERN DE. 1 HOUR FFG VALUES ARE
WELL OVER 2 INCHES IN MANY AREAS AND APPROACHING 2 INCHES OVER
THE REST. THIS FACT COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT IT HASN`T RAINED IN
OVER A WEEK AND THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER A PROLONGED
PERIOD AND NOT BE HEAVY, THEREFORE, I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY
RAINFALL PRODUCED FLOODING ISSUES.

THE STRENGTHENING GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE WINDS EVEN FURTHER
AND AM NOT PLANNING ON ANY CHANGES TO THE WIND HEADLINES ALREADY IN
PLACE. THE COMBINATION OF THE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NOT MAKE
FOR THE MOST PLEASANT CONDITIONS IN WHICH TO BE OUTDOORS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SAME SONG, DIFFERENT VERSE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR THAT
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH TO THE NORTH WEAKENS A BIT AND SLIDES
TO THE EAST, THERE COULD BE MORE OF A NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
RAIN. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE BEST CHCS OF RAIN OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA MAY BE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING
AT THIS SCENARIO FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH IS HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH TO THE N GIVES WAY. THESE
SYSTEMS OFTEN TEND NOT TO TOSS IN THE TOWEL AS QUICKLY AS PROGGED
AND IF THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE LONGER THAN THE PRECIP WOULD NOT
BE ABLE TO MAKE IT AS FAR N. THEREFORE, THE NRN EXTENT CONTINUES
TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST. IF LATEST GUID IS CORRECT, THE PRECIP
MAY START TO WIND DOWN BY LATER SATURDAY. THE STRONG NELY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE, BUT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON SATURDAY.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, GUIDANCE WAS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WE DID
NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE THE PERSISTENT COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTH AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BOTH BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR GRIP ON THE AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME LINGERING
POPS, THINGS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE DURING THE EXTENDD PERIOD. BY
SUNDAY, A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED CDFNT WILL CROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THEN A VERY EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANY
PRECIP CONTINUING LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY SHOULD COME TO AN
END AS THE HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR MOVES IN. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT OR ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY. ONE POTENTIAL CAVEAT IS THE 12/00Z
ECMWF. IT DOES NOT BRING THE HIGH AS FAR S OVER THE ERN SEABOARD,
WHICH ALLOWS A WARM FRONT FROM A LOW OVER THE MS VLY TO MOVE OVER
THE REGION. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH IN THE GFS, THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS FURTHER W IN ITS SOLN. THE ECMWF SOLN WOULD
YIELD A CLOUDIER AND POTENTIALLY WETTER PERIOD DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF OVERRUNNING ALG THE FRONT. THE 12/00Z CANADIAN IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE DRIER GFS SOLN ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AT 0830Z, CONDITIONS WERE VFR AT KRDG, KABE, KTTN, KPNE, KPHL AND
KILG. CONDITIONS HAD DROPPED INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT KMIV AND KACY.

AS RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD UP FROM THE SOUTH, CEILINGS WILL LOWER
GRADUALLY DURING THE TAF PERIOD. MEANWHILE, A BRISK NORTHEAST WIND
SHOULD KEEP VISIBILITY VALUES FROM DROPPING MUCH.

OUTLOOK...
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND LOW CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. DRY AIR SHOULD BUILD INTO OUR REGION FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH, THE STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE STORM WARNING
FOR THE DELAWARE COASTAL WATERS, LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE WATERS
OFF CAPE MAY COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY, AND WE HAVE EXTENDED IT NORTHWARD
TO THE WATERS OFF ATLANTIC COUNTY. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
600 AM ON FRIDAY.

THE GALE WARNING FOR OUR NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND FOR UPPER
DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL MIDNIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT. AT
THAT TIME, THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION AS THE HIGH AND LOW BOTH PUSH FARTHER OUT TO SEA, TAKING
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THEM.

A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD THE EASTERN SHORE OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. TIDAL DEPARTURES
JUMPED TO 1.5 FT THIS MORNING DUE TO THE BACKING UP OF WATER ON
THE BAY AND THE ONSHORE FLOW. WE NEED DEPARTURES OF 2.5 FT FOR
MODERATE AND ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THIS, IT SHOULD
HAPPEN ANYWAY AS ADDITIONAL WATER GETS LOCKED INTO THE BAY WITH
EACH SUCCESSIVE TIDE.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH, A
STRONG AND PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT, TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. WIDESPREAD MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY, WITH SPOTTY MODERATE FLOODING
IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. FOR TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, WIDESPREAD MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED, WITH
SOME SEVERE TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW WATER TO DRAIN FROM THE BACK
BAYS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE DURING THE NEXT FEW TIDE CYCLES.
MANY ROADWAYS WILL BECOME FLOODED.

THE HIGH SURF WILL WORSEN ANY TIDAL FLOODING AND IT WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO SEVERE BEACH EROSION. RAINFALL WILL ALSO COMPOUND THE
TIDAL FLOODING.

THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO ALL OF OUR COASTAL
COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. IT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM
ON FRIDAY. WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
016-020>027.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ014-024>026.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ014-021>023-025-026.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NJZ024.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ017>019.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ004.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ002-003.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR DEZ004.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MDZ012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ431-452>455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ430-450-
451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO/STAUBER