Texas Winter 2021-2022

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HockeyTx82
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#121 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:37 pm



What did this mean again? As far as Texas is concerned.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#122 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:55 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:


What did this mean again? As far as Texas is concerned.

Major Stratwarm expected next week, could cause a major cold wave across the USA between Christmas Week to New Years, it's too far out right now for the location.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#123 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:29 pm

Maybe I'm missing something but I don't see evidence of a major stratwarm event on the models? There's some stretching and moving of the PV but for the most part it stays very strong and wound up through mid December. That doesn't seem to me like something that will perturb the AO that much. We still are fighting the EPO, The Dec 7th cold snap modeled is slowly backing off as it nears.

Warm week ahead and then possibly back down closer to normal to start December.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#124 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:22 pm

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1465403650017312776




The intent was to get a better picture of the model he was mentioning . . .

EDIT: It's on the 12z Model runs & it's on WeatherBell
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#125 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:41 pm

One thing no doubt in the current pattern, warm mid lats, is stockpiling a lot of cold way to the north. Much colder than usual this time of year, you can really get a big outbreak early in the season if the dam can burst. The Arctic, Canada, and Alaska are running below normal.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#126 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 30, 2021 8:41 am

The latest GFS runs is snowing an increasingly unstable PV
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#127 Postby Ntxw » Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:56 am

The overnight model suite was very ugly for winter lovers. It's almost wall to wall torch for a lot of the US through mid-December. That ++EPO keeps beating down the cold as it gets closer. I don't like it as much as you all (the +EPO trend the past 60-90 days), but it is the big elephant in the room right now.

Hoping as we turn the calendar things change. I'm slightly optimistic once that SE ridge comes then the Nina climo might at least try to give us a glancing blow of shallow cold from the north.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#128 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:05 am

Ntxw wrote:The overnight model suite was very ugly for winter lovers. It's almost wall to wall torch for a lot of the US through mid-December. That ++EPO keeps beating down the cold as it gets closer. I don't like it as much as you all (the +EPO trend the past 60-90 days), but it is the big elephant in the room right now.

Hoping as we turn the calendar things change. I'm slightly optimistic once that SE ridge comes then the Nina climo might at least try to give us a glancing blow of shallow cold from the north.


Is the EPO one of the most Positive ever recorded or as it's longest? I've never seen the EPO being this positive for this long.

Also, if the EPO is being extremely Positive right now, it may turn extremely negative later down the road, one extreme leads to another extreme.

Also, the Extremely Positive EPO is allowing the cold to build & pile up across the North, when the timing is right with a -EPO, it will spill over to the CONUS.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#129 Postby Ntxw » Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:35 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:The overnight model suite was very ugly for winter lovers. It's almost wall to wall torch for a lot of the US through mid-December. That ++EPO keeps beating down the cold as it gets closer. I don't like it as much as you all (the +EPO trend the past 60-90 days), but it is the big elephant in the room right now.

Hoping as we turn the calendar things change. I'm slightly optimistic once that SE ridge comes then the Nina climo might at least try to give us a glancing blow of shallow cold from the north.


Is the EPO one of the most Positive ever recorded or as it's longest? I've never seen the EPO being this positive for this long.

Also, if the EPO is being extremely Positive right now, it may turn extremely negative later down the road, one extreme leads to another extreme.


I'm not sure the records, it's tough to find good sources for the EPO.

One has to look at how it is sustained. We can see the EPO has been very positive for last 3 months and is supported by the Northeast Pacific SST anomaly. The EPO has a good correlation to our warm/cold periods in winter as well as winters overall. It can go negative or positive at any time, but concern is the background effects favors one over the other. It can amplify or extend + based on SST configuration. As long as low heights favor Alaska the EPO will continue to reflect a more + state overall.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#130 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:52 am

Ntxw wrote:The overnight model suite was very ugly for winter lovers. It's almost wall to wall torch for a lot of the US through mid-December. That ++EPO keeps beating down the cold as it gets closer. I don't like it as much as you all (the +EPO trend the past 60-90 days), but it is the big elephant in the room right now.

Hoping as we turn the calendar things change. I'm slightly optimistic once that SE ridge comes then the Nina climo might at least try to give us a glancing blow of shallow cold from the north.


I like that term - "wall to wall". It's as if some barrier is preventing the cold from coming down.

On a more serious note, I think it is important that we had a significant west Gulf low develop around Thanksgiving. Now, temps across Texas were too warm for anything but rain, but the pattern that produced the west Gulf low is significant. Cold front lying across the northern Gulf with a 500 mb vorticity maximum moving into El Paso. When the 500mb vort max reaches West Texas, a low forms on the front along the TX coast. This is how the NW Gulf Coast gets snow most often. All it takes is colder air in place prior to the low forming. If this pattern repeats during the winter, then it may produce a snow event along the Gulf Coast.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#131 Postby Quixotic » Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:03 am

Found this on possible SSW. Makes a pretty good argument. I don't see Judah Cohen commenting on it yet.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... update-fa/
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#132 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 30, 2021 11:44 am

Take a look at what's possibly going on on the other side of the Atlantic

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1465682492267057154


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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#133 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:28 pm

Nyatoh in the WPAC might amplify the trough & could bring the cold towards this area in December eventually?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#134 Postby Cerlin » Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:38 pm

Meh. That's the only word that I can really use to describe my feelings on the upcoming few months. It's just really stagnant. And bland.

That being said, there's a decently strong cold shot on the 9th on both the 12z CMC and the 12z GFS. It was sort of there the past few days. 12z GFS had it yesterday, for example.

I'm not buying into it, but at least the operational models aren't showing a complete torch with the potential for a glancing blow. It is also 10 days out at this point, so I expect it to go poof in the next couple days. But while it feels like Lucy keeps pulling the football before Charlie Brown is getting ready to kick it, at least she keeps holding onto the football instead of throwing it in the fiery pits of a second summer.

EDIT: I'd also like to add the ICON model hasn't been buying into a single cold shot yet. It didn't entertain anything over the week of Thanksgiving and beyond when other models did. It's been right so far. That being said, the 12z ICON has a pretty expansive winter storm over the Great Plains on the 8th. Pretty much aligns with the CMC and GFS. I wouldn't give up just yet folks.
Last edited by Cerlin on Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#135 Postby AustinTXResident » Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:46 pm

Here are the 20 coldest 7 consecutive days on record for Austin, TX based on the average of daily average temperatures:

(1) 22.6° 20-26 Dec 1983
(2) 22.8° 07-13 Feb 1899
(3) 23.2° 08-14 Feb 1899
(4) 23.4° 19-25 Dec 1983
(5) 23.6° 06-12 Feb 1899
(6) 23.9° 09-15 Feb 1899
(7) 24.2° 21-27 Dec 1983
(8) 24.4° 12-18 Feb 2021
(9) 24.5° 13-19 Feb 2021
(9) 24.5° 16-22 Jan 1930
(11) 24.6° 22-28 Dec 1983
(12) 24.7° 17-23 Jan 1930
(13) 25.1° 11-17 Feb 2021
(14) 25.4° 23-29 Dec 1983
(14) 25.4° 18-24 Dec 1983
(14) 25.4° 10-16 Feb 1899
(17) 25.8° 05-11 Feb 1899
(18) 26.0° 24-30 Dec 1983
(19) 26.1° 28-Jan-03 Feb 1951
(20) 26.3° 29-Jan-04 Feb 1951

Notice that the top 20 consists of only 5 Arctic outbreaks:
Dec 1983 (7 places)
Feb 1899 (6 places)
Feb 2021 (3 places)
Jan 1930 (2 places)
Jan-Feb 1951 (2 places)

Note particularly the absence of Dec 1989, the 1940s, the 1960s, and the 1970s.

Also note that Feb 2021, which some claim was not nearly as bad as previous Arctic outbreaks, has 3 in the top 20.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#136 Postby AustinTXResident » Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:59 pm

The 20 coldest 7 consecutive days on record for Austin, TX based on the average of daily low temperatures includes only:
Feb 1899 (7 places)
Dec 1983 (6 places)
Jan 1930 (3 places)
Feb 2021 (2 places)
Jan-Feb 1951 (2 places)
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#137 Postby AustinTXResident » Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:14 pm

The 22 (because of a 5-way tie for 18th place) coldest 7 consecutive days on record for Austin, TX based on the average of daily high temperatures includes only:
Dec 1983 (8 places)
Feb 2021 (4 places)
Feb 1899 (4 places)
Jan 1930 (3 places)
Jan 1973 (1 place)
Dec-Jan 1945-46 (1 place)
Dec 1924 (1 place)
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#138 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:37 pm

Here's a graphic that identifies areas which were colder in 1983, 1989, and 2021. For much of Texas, 1983 and 1989 had more extreme cold than last February. Here in Houston, we were below freezing for 5 days in 1983 and 1989. Only about 36 hours below freezing last February. Single digits in Houston on Dec. 23, 1989 (7 deg). Water mains broke all across the city in 1983 and 1989, not so much in 2021. In Houston, at least, the 2021 event was just a taste of what we experienced in 1983 and 1989, both of which were 5-10F colder than 2021. February 2021 was cold, but nothing like 1983 or 1989. The big problem with 2021 was the ice that came with the cold. I remember in 1983 that the rigs in the Gulf were reporting snow. There was an inch of lake-effect snow on the south shore of Clear Lake on Christmas Eve, 1983.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#139 Postby AustinTXResident » Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:41 pm

For Texas as a whole:

Coldest Calendar Months on Record (by average of daily average temperatures):
(1)....36.6°...Jan 1940
(2)....36.8°...Jan 1930
(3)....37.2°...Jan 1979
(4)....38.0°...Feb 1905
(5)....38.3°...Dec 1983
(5)....38.3°...Jan 1978
(5)....38.3°...Jan 1918
(8)....38.5°...Feb 1895
(9)....38.7°...Jan 1977
(10)..39.2°...Jan 1963
(10)..39.2°...Feb 1899
(12)..39.7°...Dec 1989
(13)..39.9°...Jan 1949
(14)..40.1°...Jan 1962
(15)..40.2°...Jan 1948
(15)..40.2°...Dec 1914
...
(63)..43.9°...Feb 2021
(63)..43.9°...Jan 2001
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#140 Postby Ntxw » Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:43 pm

Cerlin wrote:Meh. That's the only word that I can really use to describe my feelings on the upcoming few months. It's just really stagnant. And bland.

That being said, there's a decently strong cold shot on the 9th on both the 12z CMC and the 12z GFS. It was sort of there the past few days. 12z GFS had it yesterday, for example.

I'm not buying into it, but at least the operational models aren't showing a complete torch with the potential for a glancing blow. It is also 10 days out at this point, so I expect it to go poof in the next couple days. But while it feels like Lucy keeps pulling the football before Charlie Brown is getting ready to kick it, at least she keeps holding onto the football instead of throwing it in the fiery pits of a second summer.

EDIT: I'd also like to add the ICON model hasn't been buying into a single cold shot yet. It didn't entertain anything over the week of Thanksgiving and beyond when other models did. It's been right so far. That being said, the 12z ICON has a pretty expansive winter storm over the Great Plains on the 8th. Pretty much aligns with the CMC and GFS. I wouldn't give up just yet folks.


Currently what is discouraging is that the delivery pattern is poor. There are different reasons why certain years or periods are warm. You can live with cold not being there yet early, but it's a tougher hill to climb when you have a stagnant, persistent big teleconnection like the EPO saying no. Building cold is easier than shifting a stubborn wave-pattern, it's just a matter of later in the season.

I would rather we be warm but yet due to a massive Aleutian low attacking the PV with poleward heatflux. But that isn't there. So what's to change the AO pattern? Strat shifts? That isn't going to be significant enough unless you get a major warming, which again requires something like a big Pacific low, or Asian high to attack the PV, none of which is occurring.

I suspect we will likely get a big cold shot eventually, maybe Christmas-early Jan but in between will be a lot of model fantasy cold due to a hostile Pacific.

Some can point to last year, well last year the signs were early. Some record cold and winter weather in October, then severe -AO heading into December after the big Aleutian low disrupted the PV so the cards were shown early.
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