ECMWF still on the idea of a cutoff low in the MA...

Stormsfury · #1 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Nov 16, 2003 5:38 pm

However, not as far south as yesterday's run ...

Colin · #2 Postby **Colin** » Sun Nov 16, 2003 5:40 pm

COOL...this'll have to be monitored VERY closely.

Stormsfury · #3 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Nov 16, 2003 5:49 pm

Have to wait on Plymouth to update to get the rest of the details, 850mb temperatures, etc., etc., etc... IMHO, there's NOT enough of a source of cold air to tap for this to be significant setup for winter wx ...

SF

Stormsfury · #4 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Nov 16, 2003 7:41 pm

The cutoff depicted by the EC doesn't get a good tap of colder air from the north after Day 3 (and it isn't seriously cold air, anyway) ... once the low cuts off, the only source of cold air is ... the 500mb low itself ...

850mb Temperatures (2C intervals)

EURO 850mb Temps - Day 5.

EURO 850mb Temperatures Day 6

Euro 850mb Temps. Day 7

weatherlover427 · #5 Postby **weatherlover427** » Sun Nov 16, 2003 10:16 pm

Hope this doesn't affect Portland, ME or Buffalo, NY very bad because I have family in that area :o .

JCT777 · #6 Postby **JCT777** » Mon Nov 17, 2003 11:41 am

So is it still looking like there will be a cutoff low? In todays's newsletter, LC has said that he thinks this idea is completely wrong - and the east will begin to dry out on Thursday.

Anonymous · #7 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Nov 17, 2003 1:42 pm

Larry will bust...

every model has the cutoff Low now

the Euro
the ETA
the GFS
the JB:)

JCT777 · #8 Postby **JCT777** » Mon Nov 17, 2003 2:14 pm

Ji wrote:Larry will bust...

every model has the cutoff Low now

the Euro
the ETA
the GFS
the JB:)

LC will bust? Impossible! :wink:

I think LC is siding with one of the UKMET runs from yesterday. Looks like the cutoff low will happen.

The JB model keeps pushing back the arrival of cold air. By the time it gets here, winter may be over. :wink:

Upslope · #9 Postby **Upslope** » Mon Nov 17, 2003 7:11 pm

The GFS was the first to call for somewort of closed low in the east for this week. It did so without any other model supprt. Now it looks like the closed low is a given to happen across the Mid Atlanic this week.

The last several runs of the GFS have been calling for a major storm to roll from the southern plains toward the great lakes next week and become "cutoff". This in turn led to the model pulling down much colder air underneath the closed low all the way to the east coast. This has also been flamed for a few days as having no model support... until now! Check out the day 7 EURO above and you'll see it has come around.

As I suspected yesterday, the EURO was showing it's typical bias of hanging on way too long with the SW energy. Tonght the model is showing almost exactly what the GFS is showing for the same period next week.

Now, we still have to wait and see whether any of this verifies or not. However, the GFS (as much as I loath it sometimes) is starting to pick up on TRENDS much quicker than the other models. The cards on the table and the dealer is shuffling the deck... let's just wait and see what kind of hand we are dealt.
Take care!

ColdFront77 · #10 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Nov 17, 2003 7:40 pm

JCT777 at 11:41 am Eastern wrote:So is it still looking like there will be a cutoff low? In todays's newsletter, LC has said that he thinks this idea is completely wrong - and the east will begin to dry out on Thursday.

Ji at 1:42 pm Eastern wrote:Larry will bust...

every model has the cutoff Low now

the Euro
the ETA
the GFS
the JB:)

We will see what Larry Cosgrove says in his next newsletter, Tuesday morning. These posts were made just over 8 and 10 hours after he released this morning's newsletter.

ECMWF still on the idea of a cutoff low in the MA...

ECMWF still on the idea of a cutoff low in the MA...

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