Brent wrote:I'm glad I went to Colorado because yeah this pattern ain't it
Oh but we might have unusually early severe weather Tuesday
Yeah we'll see. Could be capping issues though. Either way it'll probably end up east of me
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Brent wrote:I'm glad I went to Colorado because yeah this pattern ain't it
Oh but we might have unusually early severe weather Tuesday
orangeblood wrote:
4) As it relates to this winter and this thread, why did the MJO bypass our prime winter phases below like the plague ? Unforeseen by any of our long range models. The best theory I've heard is it was heavily influenced by the hot spots in and around Australia ? Where did these hot spots come from and why ? Maybe there's another plausible explanation to avoiding 8-1-2 ? I'm just asking the questions and attempting to find the most plausible reasons. There is no hidden agenda, it's a genuine questioning of science of which every single one of us should be doing IMHO.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/GEFS.png
I have yet to hear any plausible explanation for any of the above questions. The only responses I normally get is "Man is Bad, CO2 is the reason, how dare you question AGW" or just links to fact checking websites who, ironically, seem to have the same flaws as the sites they're attempting to debunk.
Would love to have a discussion with counter arguments/explanations and not a debunking match but maybe this just isn't the place for that. It may just be a place to make general comments on daily weather observations and not a place for questioning....
Brent wrote:I'm glad I went to Colorado because yeah this pattern ain't it
Oh but we might have unusually early severe weather Tuesday
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Brent wrote:I'm glad I went to Colorado because yeah this pattern ain't it
Oh but we might have unusually early severe weather Tuesday
This is my first El nino winter here. Drastically different than Nina. Many more "wet snow" events, sometimes it starts as rain. It was my first time to see rain between the months of November-March.
Many more 2-3 inch events, or just a dusting. In nina, every cold front that would come from the north would bring on average 6-9" of snow.
On the other end, it appears we have more big snow events under nino. The setup has to be right, but in a nino winter, we are more likely to have an upslope event which brings massive snows, a foot or more. I had two events bring me 12" each within a week in the first week of February.
Still loving how wild the weather is here but boy it is so hard to predict. Analogs are your friends here. Models are generally lost due to the mountains influence.
ElectricStorm wrote:Brent wrote:I'm glad I went to Colorado because yeah this pattern ain't it
Oh but we might have unusually early severe weather Tuesday
Yeah we'll see. Could be capping issues though. Either way it'll probably end up east of me
Brent wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Brent wrote:I'm glad I went to Colorado because yeah this pattern ain't it
Oh but we might have unusually early severe weather Tuesday
This is my first El nino winter here. Drastically different than Nina. Many more "wet snow" events, sometimes it starts as rain. It was my first time to see rain between the months of November-March.
Many more 2-3 inch events, or just a dusting. In nina, every cold front that would come from the north would bring on average 6-9" of snow.
On the other end, it appears we have more big snow events under nino. The setup has to be right, but in a nino winter, we are more likely to have an upslope event which brings massive snows, a foot or more. I had two events bring me 12" each within a week in the first week of February.
Still loving how wild the weather is here but boy it is so hard to predict. Analogs are your friends here. Models are generally lost due to the mountains influence.
Yeah I was surprised to see Denver is above normal on snowfall this year. Couldn't tellthe real snow was in the mountains only
And it is weird how a lot of storms never make it across the mountains too. One of the tour guides I did was talking about that. It was just so different when I drove up to Loveland Pass. I've never seen such a quick transition
But I'm definitely gonna try and get back next winter earlier than February. I know where to go now
Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
This is my first El nino winter here. Drastically different than Nina. Many more "wet snow" events, sometimes it starts as rain. It was my first time to see rain between the months of November-March.
Many more 2-3 inch events, or just a dusting. In nina, every cold front that would come from the north would bring on average 6-9" of snow.
On the other end, it appears we have more big snow events under nino. The setup has to be right, but in a nino winter, we are more likely to have an upslope event which brings massive snows, a foot or more. I had two events bring me 12" each within a week in the first week of February.
Still loving how wild the weather is here but boy it is so hard to predict. Analogs are your friends here. Models are generally lost due to the mountains influence.
Yeah I was surprised to see Denver is above normal on snowfall this year. Couldn't tellthe real snow was in the mountains only
And it is weird how a lot of storms never make it across the mountains too. One of the tour guides I did was talking about that. It was just so different when I drove up to Loveland Pass. I've never seen such a quick transition
But I'm definitely gonna try and get back next winter earlier than February. I know where to go now
You travel around to see snow. That’sbut if it gives you a snow fix then that’s good for you lol
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Brent wrote:I'm glad I went to Colorado because yeah this pattern ain't it
Oh but we might have unusually early severe weather Tuesday
This is my first El nino winter here. Drastically different than Nina. Many more "wet snow" events, sometimes it starts as rain. It was my first time to see rain between the months of November-March.
Many more 2-3 inch events, or just a dusting. In nina, every cold front that would come from the north would bring on average 6-9" of snow.
On the other end, it appears we have more big snow events under nino. The setup has to be right, but in a nino winter, we are more likely to have an upslope event which brings massive snows, a foot or more. I had two events bring me 12" each within a week in the first week of February.
Still loving how wild the weather is here but boy it is so hard to predict. Analogs are your friends here. Models are generally lost due to the mountains influence.
Yukon Cornelius wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Brent wrote:I'm glad I went to Colorado because yeah this pattern ain't it
Oh but we might have unusually early severe weather Tuesday
This is my first El nino winter here. Drastically different than Nina. Many more "wet snow" events, sometimes it starts as rain. It was my first time to see rain between the months of November-March.
Many more 2-3 inch events, or just a dusting. In nina, every cold front that would come from the north would bring on average 6-9" of snow.
On the other end, it appears we have more big snow events under nino. The setup has to be right, but in a nino winter, we are more likely to have an upslope event which brings massive snows, a foot or more. I had two events bring me 12" each within a week in the first week of February.
Still loving how wild the weather is here but boy it is so hard to predict. Analogs are your friends here. Models are generally lost due to the mountains influence.
Same in Westcliffe. Such a different wet snow instead of the typical powder. Snowstorm after snowstorm this winter and we haven’t even hit the “deep snow” months yet. That’s one thing that I realized is how much the mountains change everything. Basically the only forecasting that’s somewhat reliable is if you see a storm in the Sangres it’s most likely going to move over the valley and into the Wet Mountains, giving everyone some degree of snow.
Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
This is my first El nino winter here. Drastically different than Nina. Many more "wet snow" events, sometimes it starts as rain. It was my first time to see rain between the months of November-March.
Many more 2-3 inch events, or just a dusting. In nina, every cold front that would come from the north would bring on average 6-9" of snow.
On the other end, it appears we have more big snow events under nino. The setup has to be right, but in a nino winter, we are more likely to have an upslope event which brings massive snows, a foot or more. I had two events bring me 12" each within a week in the first week of February.
Still loving how wild the weather is here but boy it is so hard to predict. Analogs are your friends here. Models are generally lost due to the mountains influence.
Yeah I was surprised to see Denver is above normal on snowfall this year. Couldn't tellthe real snow was in the mountains only
And it is weird how a lot of storms never make it across the mountains too. One of the tour guides I did was talking about that. It was just so different when I drove up to Loveland Pass. I've never seen such a quick transition
But I'm definitely gonna try and get back next winter earlier than February. I know where to go now
You travel around to see snow. That’sbut if it gives you a snow fix then that’s good for you lol
DallasAg wrote:Yukon Cornelius wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
This is my first El nino winter here. Drastically different than Nina. Many more "wet snow" events, sometimes it starts as rain. It was my first time to see rain between the months of November-March.
Many more 2-3 inch events, or just a dusting. In nina, every cold front that would come from the north would bring on average 6-9" of snow.
On the other end, it appears we have more big snow events under nino. The setup has to be right, but in a nino winter, we are more likely to have an upslope event which brings massive snows, a foot or more. I had two events bring me 12" each within a week in the first week of February.
Still loving how wild the weather is here but boy it is so hard to predict. Analogs are your friends here. Models are generally lost due to the mountains influence.
Same in Westcliffe. Such a different wet snow instead of the typical powder. Snowstorm after snowstorm this winter and we haven’t even hit the “deep snow” months yet. That’s one thing that I realized is how much the mountains change everything. Basically the only forecasting that’s somewhat reliable is if you see a storm in the Sangres it’s most likely going to move over the valley and into the Wet Mountains, giving everyone some degree of snow.
Crested Butte is really intriguing. With mountains to the east, north, and south, the flow has to be *just* right to really produce, otherwise it skips right over us. We've had a couple of storms this year where we've been under a Winter Storm Warning (pretty high bar when you're at 9400') only to get a real dud of a storm. Then last week we got the wind to sweet spot us and popped out 9" without as much as a WWA. This week was the same - official forecast was trace-2" and we got 5". Sunday-Tuesday looks promising, but the local guy I follow hasn't really bit on it just yet. Overall it's been a good season - normal is right around 200" for the season and we're at 202" as of yesterday with still a big month of March to go plus whatever next week's storm brings. Last year was amazing - I think we topped out at 320" +/-.
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:DallasAg wrote:Yukon Cornelius wrote:Same in Westcliffe. Such a different wet snow instead of the typical powder. Snowstorm after snowstorm this winter and we haven’t even hit the “deep snow” months yet. That’s one thing that I realized is how much the mountains change everything. Basically the only forecasting that’s somewhat reliable is if you see a storm in the Sangres it’s most likely going to move over the valley and into the Wet Mountains, giving everyone some degree of snow.
Crested Butte is really intriguing. With mountains to the east, north, and south, the flow has to be *just* right to really produce, otherwise it skips right over us. We've had a couple of storms this year where we've been under a Winter Storm Warning (pretty high bar when you're at 9400') only to get a real dud of a storm. Then last week we got the wind to sweet spot us and popped out 9" without as much as a WWA. This week was the same - official forecast was trace-2" and we got 5". Sunday-Tuesday looks promising, but the local guy I follow hasn't really bit on it just yet. Overall it's been a good season - normal is right around 200" for the season and we're at 202" as of yesterday with still a big month of March to go plus whatever next week's storm brings. Last year was amazing - I think we topped out at 320" +/-.
CB needs a SW flow off of the pacific for the perfect storm, or for all of them, a bowling ball low to track over CO. SW flow is by far the best for them.
orangeblood wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:DallasAg wrote:Crested Butte is really intriguing. With mountains to the east, north, and south, the flow has to be *just* right to really produce, otherwise it skips right over us. We've had a couple of storms this year where we've been under a Winter Storm Warning (pretty high bar when you're at 9400') only to get a real dud of a storm. Then last week we got the wind to sweet spot us and popped out 9" without as much as a WWA. This week was the same - official forecast was trace-2" and we got 5". Sunday-Tuesday looks promising, but the local guy I follow hasn't really bit on it just yet. Overall it's been a good season - normal is right around 200" for the season and we're at 202" as of yesterday with still a big month of March to go plus whatever next week's storm brings. Last year was amazing - I think we topped out at 320" +/-.
CB needs a SW flow off of the pacific for the perfect storm, or for all of them, a bowling ball low to track over CO. SW flow is by far the best for them.
Not necessarily, happen to be in CB during MLK weekend in January...almost 48 inches of snow was dropped over a 4-5 day period with predominantly NW Flow. Largest snowfall of the season for CB by far and one of the best storm cycles I've seen in Colorado for quite some time. The San Juans are more SW flow dominant, the Elk Mountains and CB can cash in on numerous upper level flow setups!
Jan 14, 2024
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm500_wbgsm_20240114.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm_p24i_20240114.gif
Jan 15, 2024
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm500_wbgsm_20240115.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm_p24i_20240115.gif
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:orangeblood wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
CB needs a SW flow off of the pacific for the perfect storm, or for all of them, a bowling ball low to track over CO. SW flow is by far the best for them.
Not necessarily, happen to be in CB during MLK weekend in January...almost 48 inches of snow was dropped over a 4-5 day period with predominantly NW Flow. Largest snowfall of the season for CB by far and one of the best storm cycles I've seen in Colorado for quite some time. The San Juans are more SW flow dominant, the Elk Mountains and CB can cash in on numerous upper level flow setups!
Jan 14, 2024
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm500_wbgsm_20240114.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm_p24i_20240114.gif
Jan 15, 2024
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm500_wbgsm_20240115.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm_p24i_20240115.gif
In that particular setup, the jet stream was pumping well over 150 MPH directly over CO. In any case, when the jet stream goes over the state, we see big snows. Also, like you said, it was stuck over the region for 4-5 days. Steamboat over that same period saw close to 90". It loves a NW flow, as does Vail.
With that said, if you had a SW flow that strong over CB for 4-5 days, it would see much greater than 48". A few years back, i think in 2021, they had a prolonged SW flow and received close to 100" in one storm.
snownado wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:
Yeah I was surprised to see Denver is above normal on snowfall this year. Couldn't tellthe real snow was in the mountains only
And it is weird how a lot of storms never make it across the mountains too. One of the tour guides I did was talking about that. It was just so different when I drove up to Loveland Pass. I've never seen such a quick transition
But I'm definitely gonna try and get back next winter earlier than February. I know where to go now
You travel around to see snow. That’sbut if it gives you a snow fix then that’s good for you lol
I mean, it's no different than storm chasing or snowbirds traveling to Florida in the winter.
snownado wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Brent wrote:
Yeah I was surprised to see Denver is above normal on snowfall this year. Couldn't tellthe real snow was in the mountains only
And it is weird how a lot of storms never make it across the mountains too. One of the tour guides I did was talking about that. It was just so different when I drove up to Loveland Pass. I've never seen such a quick transition
But I'm definitely gonna try and get back next winter earlier than February. I know where to go now
You travel around to see snow. That’sbut if it gives you a snow fix then that’s good for you lol
I mean, it's no different than storm chasing or snowbirds traveling to Florida in the winter.
Brent wrote:Anyways... Tulsa forecast Tuesday is 85/30
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