Texas Winter 2023-2024

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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4181 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:32 pm

Brent wrote:I'm glad I went to Colorado because yeah this pattern ain't it :lol:

Oh but we might have unusually early severe weather Tuesday :spam:

Yeah we'll see. Could be capping issues though. Either way it'll probably end up east of me
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4182 Postby tolakram » Thu Feb 22, 2024 7:58 pm

Next inflammatory post gets an immediate timeout. I think most of you all can figure out what I mean here, and if you can't I'll give you plenty of time to think about it. JEEPERS!
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4183 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:39 pm

orangeblood wrote:
4) As it relates to this winter and this thread, why did the MJO bypass our prime winter phases below like the plague ? Unforeseen by any of our long range models. The best theory I've heard is it was heavily influenced by the hot spots in and around Australia ? Where did these hot spots come from and why ? Maybe there's another plausible explanation to avoiding 8-1-2 ? I'm just asking the questions and attempting to find the most plausible reasons. There is no hidden agenda, it's a genuine questioning of science of which every single one of us should be doing IMHO.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/GEFS.png

I have yet to hear any plausible explanation for any of the above questions. The only responses I normally get is "Man is Bad, CO2 is the reason, how dare you question AGW" or just links to fact checking websites who, ironically, seem to have the same flaws as the sites they're attempting to debunk.

Would love to have a discussion with counter arguments/explanations and not a debunking match but maybe this just isn't the place for that. It may just be a place to make general comments on daily weather observations and not a place for questioning....


I answered your question in a post countering the hot spots theory.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4184 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Feb 22, 2024 8:45 pm

Brent wrote:I'm glad I went to Colorado because yeah this pattern ain't it :lol:

Oh but we might have unusually early severe weather Tuesday :spam:


This is my first El nino winter here. Drastically different than Nina. Many more "wet snow" events, sometimes it starts as rain. It was my first time to see rain between the months of November-March.
Many more 2-3 inch events, or just a dusting. In nina, every cold front that would come from the north would bring on average 6-9" of snow.
On the other end, it appears we have more big snow events under nino. The setup has to be right, but in a nino winter, we are more likely to have an upslope event which brings massive snows, a foot or more. I had two events bring me 12" each within a week in the first week of February.

Still loving how wild the weather is here but boy it is so hard to predict. Analogs are your friends here. Models are generally lost due to the mountains influence.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4185 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:08 pm

With all this heat, both in the air and the gulf, I wonder what kind of severe weather setups we will see when the waterworks inevitably turn back on again. A larger event looks possible to our northeast next week, with ntx maybe taking a glancing blow, but I do wonder if this spring will spit out a nino-esque bowling ball or negatively tilted trough that centers the threat on our state before we transition out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4186 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:21 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Brent wrote:I'm glad I went to Colorado because yeah this pattern ain't it :lol:

Oh but we might have unusually early severe weather Tuesday :spam:


This is my first El nino winter here. Drastically different than Nina. Many more "wet snow" events, sometimes it starts as rain. It was my first time to see rain between the months of November-March.
Many more 2-3 inch events, or just a dusting. In nina, every cold front that would come from the north would bring on average 6-9" of snow.
On the other end, it appears we have more big snow events under nino. The setup has to be right, but in a nino winter, we are more likely to have an upslope event which brings massive snows, a foot or more. I had two events bring me 12" each within a week in the first week of February.

Still loving how wild the weather is here but boy it is so hard to predict. Analogs are your friends here. Models are generally lost due to the mountains influence.


Yeah I was surprised to see Denver is above normal on snowfall this year. Couldn't tell :lol: the real snow was in the mountains only

And it is weird how a lot of storms never make it across the mountains too. One of the tour guides I did was talking about that. It was just so different when I drove up to Loveland Pass. I've never seen such a quick transition

But I'm definitely gonna try and get back next winter earlier than February. I know where to go now :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4187 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:44 pm

ElectricStorm wrote:
Brent wrote:I'm glad I went to Colorado because yeah this pattern ain't it :lol:

Oh but we might have unusually early severe weather Tuesday :spam:

Yeah we'll see. Could be capping issues though. Either way it'll probably end up east of me


Most events these days are east of you.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4188 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:47 pm

Brent wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Brent wrote:I'm glad I went to Colorado because yeah this pattern ain't it :lol:

Oh but we might have unusually early severe weather Tuesday :spam:


This is my first El nino winter here. Drastically different than Nina. Many more "wet snow" events, sometimes it starts as rain. It was my first time to see rain between the months of November-March.
Many more 2-3 inch events, or just a dusting. In nina, every cold front that would come from the north would bring on average 6-9" of snow.
On the other end, it appears we have more big snow events under nino. The setup has to be right, but in a nino winter, we are more likely to have an upslope event which brings massive snows, a foot or more. I had two events bring me 12" each within a week in the first week of February.

Still loving how wild the weather is here but boy it is so hard to predict. Analogs are your friends here. Models are generally lost due to the mountains influence.


Yeah I was surprised to see Denver is above normal on snowfall this year. Couldn't tell :lol: the real snow was in the mountains only

And it is weird how a lot of storms never make it across the mountains too. One of the tour guides I did was talking about that. It was just so different when I drove up to Loveland Pass. I've never seen such a quick transition

But I'm definitely gonna try and get back next winter earlier than February. I know where to go now :lol:


You travel around to see snow. That’s :sleeping: but if it gives you a snow fix then that’s good for you lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4189 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 22, 2024 11:47 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
This is my first El nino winter here. Drastically different than Nina. Many more "wet snow" events, sometimes it starts as rain. It was my first time to see rain between the months of November-March.
Many more 2-3 inch events, or just a dusting. In nina, every cold front that would come from the north would bring on average 6-9" of snow.
On the other end, it appears we have more big snow events under nino. The setup has to be right, but in a nino winter, we are more likely to have an upslope event which brings massive snows, a foot or more. I had two events bring me 12" each within a week in the first week of February.

Still loving how wild the weather is here but boy it is so hard to predict. Analogs are your friends here. Models are generally lost due to the mountains influence.


Yeah I was surprised to see Denver is above normal on snowfall this year. Couldn't tell :lol: the real snow was in the mountains only

And it is weird how a lot of storms never make it across the mountains too. One of the tour guides I did was talking about that. It was just so different when I drove up to Loveland Pass. I've never seen such a quick transition

But I'm definitely gonna try and get back next winter earlier than February. I know where to go now :lol:


You travel around to see snow. That’s :sleeping: but if it gives you a snow fix then that’s good for you lol


Lol it really wasn't totally about the snow but since I was already there I was like why not. Though probably how bad the winter has been pushed it over the edge tbh. The thing about Loveland Pass was in a normal winter you probably wouldn't be able to get up there so easily so that was another thing. I wanted to get up there while I could

It's also an area I had never explored before
Last edited by Brent on Thu Feb 22, 2024 11:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4190 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Feb 22, 2024 11:49 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Brent wrote:I'm glad I went to Colorado because yeah this pattern ain't it :lol:

Oh but we might have unusually early severe weather Tuesday :spam:


This is my first El nino winter here. Drastically different than Nina. Many more "wet snow" events, sometimes it starts as rain. It was my first time to see rain between the months of November-March.
Many more 2-3 inch events, or just a dusting. In nina, every cold front that would come from the north would bring on average 6-9" of snow.
On the other end, it appears we have more big snow events under nino. The setup has to be right, but in a nino winter, we are more likely to have an upslope event which brings massive snows, a foot or more. I had two events bring me 12" each within a week in the first week of February.

Still loving how wild the weather is here but boy it is so hard to predict. Analogs are your friends here. Models are generally lost due to the mountains influence.

Same in Westcliffe. Such a different wet snow instead of the typical powder. Snowstorm after snowstorm this winter and we haven’t even hit the “deep snow” months yet. That’s one thing that I realized is how much the mountains change everything. Basically the only forecasting that’s somewhat reliable is if you see a storm in the Sangres it’s most likely going to move over the valley and into the Wet Mountains, giving everyone some degree of snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4191 Postby DallasAg » Fri Feb 23, 2024 6:41 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Brent wrote:I'm glad I went to Colorado because yeah this pattern ain't it :lol:

Oh but we might have unusually early severe weather Tuesday :spam:


This is my first El nino winter here. Drastically different than Nina. Many more "wet snow" events, sometimes it starts as rain. It was my first time to see rain between the months of November-March.
Many more 2-3 inch events, or just a dusting. In nina, every cold front that would come from the north would bring on average 6-9" of snow.
On the other end, it appears we have more big snow events under nino. The setup has to be right, but in a nino winter, we are more likely to have an upslope event which brings massive snows, a foot or more. I had two events bring me 12" each within a week in the first week of February.

Still loving how wild the weather is here but boy it is so hard to predict. Analogs are your friends here. Models are generally lost due to the mountains influence.

Same in Westcliffe. Such a different wet snow instead of the typical powder. Snowstorm after snowstorm this winter and we haven’t even hit the “deep snow” months yet. That’s one thing that I realized is how much the mountains change everything. Basically the only forecasting that’s somewhat reliable is if you see a storm in the Sangres it’s most likely going to move over the valley and into the Wet Mountains, giving everyone some degree of snow.

Crested Butte is really intriguing. With mountains to the east, north, and south, the flow has to be *just* right to really produce, otherwise it skips right over us. We've had a couple of storms this year where we've been under a Winter Storm Warning (pretty high bar when you're at 9400') only to get a real dud of a storm. Then last week we got the wind to sweet spot us and popped out 9" without as much as a WWA. This week was the same - official forecast was trace-2" and we got 5". Sunday-Tuesday looks promising, but the local guy I follow hasn't really bit on it just yet. Overall it's been a good season - normal is right around 200" for the season and we're at 202" as of yesterday with still a big month of March to go plus whatever next week's storm brings. Last year was amazing - I think we topped out at 320" +/-.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4192 Postby snownado » Fri Feb 23, 2024 8:28 am

Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
This is my first El nino winter here. Drastically different than Nina. Many more "wet snow" events, sometimes it starts as rain. It was my first time to see rain between the months of November-March.
Many more 2-3 inch events, or just a dusting. In nina, every cold front that would come from the north would bring on average 6-9" of snow.
On the other end, it appears we have more big snow events under nino. The setup has to be right, but in a nino winter, we are more likely to have an upslope event which brings massive snows, a foot or more. I had two events bring me 12" each within a week in the first week of February.

Still loving how wild the weather is here but boy it is so hard to predict. Analogs are your friends here. Models are generally lost due to the mountains influence.


Yeah I was surprised to see Denver is above normal on snowfall this year. Couldn't tell :lol: the real snow was in the mountains only

And it is weird how a lot of storms never make it across the mountains too. One of the tour guides I did was talking about that. It was just so different when I drove up to Loveland Pass. I've never seen such a quick transition

But I'm definitely gonna try and get back next winter earlier than February. I know where to go now :lol:


You travel around to see snow. That’s :sleeping: but if it gives you a snow fix then that’s good for you lol


I mean, it's no different than storm chasing or snowbirds traveling to Florida in the winter.
Last edited by snownado on Fri Feb 23, 2024 10:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4193 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Feb 23, 2024 10:44 am

DallasAg wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
This is my first El nino winter here. Drastically different than Nina. Many more "wet snow" events, sometimes it starts as rain. It was my first time to see rain between the months of November-March.
Many more 2-3 inch events, or just a dusting. In nina, every cold front that would come from the north would bring on average 6-9" of snow.
On the other end, it appears we have more big snow events under nino. The setup has to be right, but in a nino winter, we are more likely to have an upslope event which brings massive snows, a foot or more. I had two events bring me 12" each within a week in the first week of February.

Still loving how wild the weather is here but boy it is so hard to predict. Analogs are your friends here. Models are generally lost due to the mountains influence.

Same in Westcliffe. Such a different wet snow instead of the typical powder. Snowstorm after snowstorm this winter and we haven’t even hit the “deep snow” months yet. That’s one thing that I realized is how much the mountains change everything. Basically the only forecasting that’s somewhat reliable is if you see a storm in the Sangres it’s most likely going to move over the valley and into the Wet Mountains, giving everyone some degree of snow.

Crested Butte is really intriguing. With mountains to the east, north, and south, the flow has to be *just* right to really produce, otherwise it skips right over us. We've had a couple of storms this year where we've been under a Winter Storm Warning (pretty high bar when you're at 9400') only to get a real dud of a storm. Then last week we got the wind to sweet spot us and popped out 9" without as much as a WWA. This week was the same - official forecast was trace-2" and we got 5". Sunday-Tuesday looks promising, but the local guy I follow hasn't really bit on it just yet. Overall it's been a good season - normal is right around 200" for the season and we're at 202" as of yesterday with still a big month of March to go plus whatever next week's storm brings. Last year was amazing - I think we topped out at 320" +/-.


CB needs a SW flow off of the pacific for the perfect storm, or for all of them, a bowling ball low to track over CO. SW flow is by far the best for them.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4194 Postby orangeblood » Fri Feb 23, 2024 11:15 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
DallasAg wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Same in Westcliffe. Such a different wet snow instead of the typical powder. Snowstorm after snowstorm this winter and we haven’t even hit the “deep snow” months yet. That’s one thing that I realized is how much the mountains change everything. Basically the only forecasting that’s somewhat reliable is if you see a storm in the Sangres it’s most likely going to move over the valley and into the Wet Mountains, giving everyone some degree of snow.

Crested Butte is really intriguing. With mountains to the east, north, and south, the flow has to be *just* right to really produce, otherwise it skips right over us. We've had a couple of storms this year where we've been under a Winter Storm Warning (pretty high bar when you're at 9400') only to get a real dud of a storm. Then last week we got the wind to sweet spot us and popped out 9" without as much as a WWA. This week was the same - official forecast was trace-2" and we got 5". Sunday-Tuesday looks promising, but the local guy I follow hasn't really bit on it just yet. Overall it's been a good season - normal is right around 200" for the season and we're at 202" as of yesterday with still a big month of March to go plus whatever next week's storm brings. Last year was amazing - I think we topped out at 320" +/-.


CB needs a SW flow off of the pacific for the perfect storm, or for all of them, a bowling ball low to track over CO. SW flow is by far the best for them.


Not necessarily, happen to be in CB during MLK weekend in January...almost 48 inches of snow was dropped over a 4-5 day period with predominantly NW Flow. Largest snowfall of the season for CB by far and one of the best storm cycles I've seen in Colorado for quite some time. The San Juans are more SW flow dominant, the Elk Mountains and CB can cash in on numerous upper level flow setups!

Jan 14, 2024
Image
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Jan 15, 2024
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4195 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Feb 23, 2024 11:37 am

orangeblood wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
DallasAg wrote:Crested Butte is really intriguing. With mountains to the east, north, and south, the flow has to be *just* right to really produce, otherwise it skips right over us. We've had a couple of storms this year where we've been under a Winter Storm Warning (pretty high bar when you're at 9400') only to get a real dud of a storm. Then last week we got the wind to sweet spot us and popped out 9" without as much as a WWA. This week was the same - official forecast was trace-2" and we got 5". Sunday-Tuesday looks promising, but the local guy I follow hasn't really bit on it just yet. Overall it's been a good season - normal is right around 200" for the season and we're at 202" as of yesterday with still a big month of March to go plus whatever next week's storm brings. Last year was amazing - I think we topped out at 320" +/-.


CB needs a SW flow off of the pacific for the perfect storm, or for all of them, a bowling ball low to track over CO. SW flow is by far the best for them.


Not necessarily, happen to be in CB during MLK weekend in January...almost 48 inches of snow was dropped over a 4-5 day period with predominantly NW Flow. Largest snowfall of the season for CB by far and one of the best storm cycles I've seen in Colorado for quite some time. The San Juans are more SW flow dominant, the Elk Mountains and CB can cash in on numerous upper level flow setups!

Jan 14, 2024
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm500_wbgsm_20240114.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm_p24i_20240114.gif

Jan 15, 2024
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm500_wbgsm_20240115.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm_p24i_20240115.gif


In that particular setup, the jet stream was pumping well over 150 MPH directly over CO. In any case, when the jet stream goes over the state, we see big snows. Also, like you said, it was stuck over the region for 4-5 days. Steamboat over that same period saw close to 90". It loves a NW flow, as does Vail.

With that said, if you had a SW flow that strong over CB for 4-5 days, it would see much greater than 48". A few years back, i think in 2021, they had a prolonged SW flow and received close to 100" in one storm.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4196 Postby DallasAg » Fri Feb 23, 2024 11:43 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
CB needs a SW flow off of the pacific for the perfect storm, or for all of them, a bowling ball low to track over CO. SW flow is by far the best for them.


Not necessarily, happen to be in CB during MLK weekend in January...almost 48 inches of snow was dropped over a 4-5 day period with predominantly NW Flow. Largest snowfall of the season for CB by far and one of the best storm cycles I've seen in Colorado for quite some time. The San Juans are more SW flow dominant, the Elk Mountains and CB can cash in on numerous upper level flow setups!

Jan 14, 2024
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm500_wbgsm_20240114.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm_p24i_20240114.gif

Jan 15, 2024
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm500_wbgsm_20240115.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm_p24i_20240115.gif


In that particular setup, the jet stream was pumping well over 150 MPH directly over CO. In any case, when the jet stream goes over the state, we see big snows. Also, like you said, it was stuck over the region for 4-5 days. Steamboat over that same period saw close to 90". It loves a NW flow, as does Vail.

With that said, if you had a SW flow that strong over CB for 4-5 days, it would see much greater than 48". A few years back, i think in 2021, they had a prolonged SW flow and received close to 100" in one storm.

The week between Christmas and New Years in 2021 was amazing. Big storm right before Christmas dumped on us, and then starting Christmas night it snowed nearly non-stop until late on New Years night. Some days we'd get 7-10" others was more like 14-18", but it just kept snowing. The snow was amazing but it was really messy - so many visitors, snow removal crews couldn't keep up, and GUC airport was renting far too many front-wheel drive cars for the travelers. But everyone got what they came to see - tons of snow. That was really the main show for the entire season - a smallish storm around Presidents Day weekend and that was really it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4197 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 23, 2024 1:39 pm

snownado wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Yeah I was surprised to see Denver is above normal on snowfall this year. Couldn't tell :lol: the real snow was in the mountains only

And it is weird how a lot of storms never make it across the mountains too. One of the tour guides I did was talking about that. It was just so different when I drove up to Loveland Pass. I've never seen such a quick transition

But I'm definitely gonna try and get back next winter earlier than February. I know where to go now :lol:


You travel around to see snow. That’s :sleeping: but if it gives you a snow fix then that’s good for you lol


I mean, it's no different than storm chasing or snowbirds traveling to Florida in the winter.


And again if this winter hadn't been such a pathetic joke I probably would have never went :spam: I mean how did they it so wrong Tulsa has less snow than last winter somehow if nothing else happens. Hard to fathom
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4198 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Feb 23, 2024 9:13 pm

snownado wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Brent wrote:
Yeah I was surprised to see Denver is above normal on snowfall this year. Couldn't tell :lol: the real snow was in the mountains only

And it is weird how a lot of storms never make it across the mountains too. One of the tour guides I did was talking about that. It was just so different when I drove up to Loveland Pass. I've never seen such a quick transition

But I'm definitely gonna try and get back next winter earlier than February. I know where to go now :lol:


You travel around to see snow. That’s :sleeping: but if it gives you a snow fix then that’s good for you lol


I mean, it's no different than storm chasing or snowbirds traveling to Florida in the winter.


It should be well known by now I’m not a fan of traveling to see certain types of weather. It just doesn’t do much for me, especially the snow part. Now a tornado for me would be a bit of a different story. A hurricane would be the same as snow. Wouldn’t really move the needle. I’ve never seen a tornado but I really want to see one so I wouldn’t mind chasing. I love the element of surprise.
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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4199 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 23, 2024 10:46 pm

Anyways... Tulsa forecast Tuesday is 85/30 :double:
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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Winter 2023-2024

#4200 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Feb 23, 2024 10:49 pm

Brent wrote:Anyways... Tulsa forecast Tuesday is 85/30 :double:


Wtf? Never heard of anything like that.
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