SUBMIT YOUR QUESTIONS-For Q & A with Keith Allen

[WEATHER53]

What are you views on the GFS model? Also what model do you prefere when making your forecast?

Aaron

He relies on models very little, mostly uses historical precedent type of forecasting, but in years past if used a model it was the AVN.

[Guest]

My last question is other then the 79/80 analog care to share what other things went into your winter outlook?

[WEATHER53]

Hello Mr Allen,
I'll cut to the chase..
How will the SE States fare in the snow fall category this winter?

Thanks,

Minimal costal activity, look for late winter snowfall in VA?NC while DC remains cold and dry

Your looking for a persistant trof over E 1/3 Conus thru mid february'ish?

He thinks feb will be mild, jan cold, with trough in Feb set up in Ohio valley or west of

[WEATHER53]

My last question is other then the 79/80 analog care to share what other things went into your winter outlook?

No profound effect for el nino nor la nina, 58-59 as a minor analog with 96-97 worth a mention

[Constructionwx]

Thanks 53

[WEATHER53]

In conclusion Keith wishes to thank everyone for their interest in him and what he has to say. He takes pride in his forecasting and places emphasis on forecasting without the hype. If there would be interst in doing this again, he would be glad to do so. I, WX53, will check one more time for questions and if none we will conclude.

[GAStorm]

I am wondering if the Pacific jet will break down soon? Also, what are the chances the Gulf will bring a major winter storm to the east?

[wxid]

Thanks !

[Stormsfury]

Does KA believe that this upcoming winter will feature no real prolonged warm or cold spells (thus a lot of variability)?

SF

[chadtm80]

On behalf of the entire staff, I would like to thank you two for stopping by and doing this session with us.. You are ALWAYS welcome to come share your vast knowledge of the weather here with us

Thanks again,
Admin Team

[WEATHER53]

I am wondering if the Pacific jet will break down soon? Also, what are the chances the Gulf will bring a major winter storm to the east?

Conditions do not look favorable at all for Gulf storms, this is entirely different weather pattern than last winter and it will not be like last winter, the whole pattern changed in October of this year just like in October 1979. The jet stays strong but the trough stays in the west and the storms tend to run up into the Great lakes but there will be some opportunities for cold and snow in mid atlantic starting in january.

[WEATHER53]

Thanks for participation and we are concluded.

[Guest]

Does KA believe that this upcoming winter will feature no real prolonged warm or cold spells (thus a lot of variability)?

SF

53???????????? Forgot one!

[DelStormLover]

What does this winter look like snow wise in SE Delaware?

[Stormsfury]

What does this winter look like snow wise in SE Delaware?

Too late, Del ...

The session started at 7 pm and ended about 45 minutes later ...

SF

[HuffWx]

I thought the analog for 95-96 was 65-66. 57-58 makes no sense because the blizzard was in Jan, not Feb...ala last year.

Care to clear this up?

Huff

[donsutherland1]

I'm sorry I missed this. I lost my Internet connection due to some ISP problems in Greenwich. Interesting conversation.

Thanks Weather53 and also for KA for sharing his insights.

[JCT777]

I too wish I could have been here, but I enjoyed reading through this thread. I would definitely be interested in participating in another session like this in the future.

[Johnny]

I"ve got one.
What kind of weather could I be expecting down here in Southeast, Texas for December and into January? Any chances of frozen precip this year?

[ColdFront77]

Johnny, this event was from 7:00 pm to about 7:45 pm Eastern on Wednesday.