Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

I think im getting myself too caught up with these “ pro mets” on x, its like today’s model runs dont show cold in the long range, and now its like the sky is falling, blow torch is coming pattern, at least thats what is being thrown around on X , when a few days ago they were calling for a colder 2nd half of december, honestly kind of hard to trust them when they are quick to flip that much, but also to be honest their definitely are some unfavorable factors showing up in the ensembles that i dont like

This hobby isn't for the faint of heart for sure like I don't even know why anyone tries to predict 2 weeks out. It changes every 5 minutes

I usually wait about 2 days worth of cycles before changing direction. It's mostly an educated guessing game more than 5-7 days out. A couple of things is true, we are coming out of an exceptionally warm stretch this year outside of January, and any normal or below normal air has been rare. So until cold is moving out of the north, hard to fully buy into it. Second, because of where we live and the recent tendencies just predict warmth and you'll be right most of the time .

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm buying firewood this weekend, something I haven't done since 21/22. I have that feeling that December is going to be a transition month, and it will end up about normal temperature wise. But January and February could be what we been waiting for, and I'm not getting caught in the hype or with my fireplace empty. Winter is definitely not cancelled

[Ntxw]

I'm buying firewood this weekend, something I haven't done since 21/22. I have that feeling that December is going to be a transition month, and it will end up about normal temperature wise. But January and February could be what we been waiting for, and I'm not getting caught in the hype or with my fireplace empty. Winter is definitely not cancelled

Yeah it's definitely a transition, not expecting wall to wall cold or anything. There's going to be mild periods, just hopefully Canada can get really cold for when the pattern does become favorable. In the mean time we still can watch what the next big system will do, there's a non-zero chance some may see wintry precip need some good trends.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

I'm buying firewood this weekend, something I haven't done since 21/22. I have that feeling that December is going to be a transition month, and it will end up about normal temperature wise. But January and February could be what we been waiting for, and I'm not getting caught in the hype or with my fireplace empty. Winter is definitely not cancelled

Yeah it's definitely a transition, not expecting wall to wall cold or anything. There's going to be mild periods, just hopefully Canada can get really cold for when the pattern does become favorable. In the mean time we still can watch what the next big system will do, there's a non-zero chance some may see wintry precip need some good trends.

That's why I didn't like 2013-14 like alot of the people believed. The mjo is going to stall or go slow through the warm phases, which isn't good for cold weather. I'm hoping that changes in early January.

[starsfan65]

I'm buying firewood this weekend, something I haven't done since 21/22. I have that feeling that December is going to be a transition month, and it will end up about normal temperature wise. But January and February could be what we been waiting for, and I'm not getting caught in the hype or with my fireplace empty. Winter is definitely not cancelled

Yeah it's definitely a transition, not expecting wall to wall cold or anything. There's going to be mild periods, just hopefully Canada can get really cold for when the pattern does become favorable. In the mean time we still can watch what the next big system will do, there's a non-zero chance some may see wintry precip need some good trends.

That's why I didn't like 2013-14 like alot of the people believed. The mjo is going to stall or go slow through the warm phases, which isn't good for cold weather. I'm hoping that changes in early January.

It will not be blowtorch warm if that happens.

[Stratton23]

Massive difference between the EPS and GEFS with MJO progression, GEFS stalls out in phase 6 with a blow torch pattern, the EPS almost weakens or completely nullifies the MJO due to easterly winds, no big warm out, more frequent cold shots, in my opinion I think guidance is trying to remove the -EPO too quickly, definitely a split in whats going to happen lol

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Yeah it's definitely a transition, not expecting wall to wall cold or anything. There's going to be mild periods, just hopefully Canada can get really cold for when the pattern does become favorable. In the mean time we still can watch what the next big system will do, there's a non-zero chance some may see wintry precip need some good trends.

That's why I didn't like 2013-14 like alot of the people believed. The mjo is going to stall or go slow through the warm phases, which isn't good for cold weather. I'm hoping that changes in early January.

It will not be blowtorch warm if that happens.

Phases 4-6 are warm in December. If the mjo don't fall apart in the warm phases, it will be pretty warm around here imo.

[Stratton23]

00z ICON has a deeper system digging more SW, coastal low develops in response, rain/snow mix in west central texas, very cold rain for se texas with temperatures in the upper 30’s

[Ntxw]

00z ICON has a deeper system digging more SW, coastal low develops in response, rain/snow mix in west central texas, very cold rain for se texas with temperatures in the upper 30’s

Man that's so 2004ish with some more trends. A tad dry now, but the coastal low. It's never easy but the ingredients have potential. You're never going to get a clear cut modeled event that far south but you have to like the set up.

[txtwister78]

00z ICON has a deeper system digging more SW, coastal low develops in response, rain/snow mix in west central texas, very cold rain for se texas with temperatures in the upper 30’s

That looks a little Dec 2017 to me. Just enough cold pulled down with an upper-level disturbance doing the trick.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 I remember that event, woke up to 3-4 inches on the ground, had a mini snowball fight with the family, hoping we get an event like that this winter

[txtwister78]

txtwister78 I remember that event, woke up to 3-4 inches on the ground, had a mini snowball fight with the family, hoping we get an event like that this winter

Yup. Those setups can deliver the big wet snowflakes. Perfect for viewing/pictures with minimal travel issues and definitely was a nice early Christmas present for folks down here.

[Ntxw]

GFS too dry, the CMC so far has 'the look'.

[wxman22]

Interesting that the CMC brings back the snow FWIW.

[Stratton23]

CMC looks pretty good, though needs to trend more SW again with the energy, GFS too warm and dry, honestly the ICON probably has the best setup for a little wintry mischief, Euro run will be interesting

[Ntxw]

Also I don't really see torch on the GFS or Canadian. Even if ridging passes by, there's still that note I made earlier about energy wanting to dig this season. Something will cut underneath and prevent it from warming up all that much for long.

[wxman22]

The 6Z GFS looks like the CMC

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW LONG TERM... /Issued 400 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024/
/Thursday Night through Tuesday/

Modest low level warm advection will commence atop a cold surface
airmass late Thursday night with cloud cover increasing rapidly
from the southwest during the overnight hours. This will likely
result in a fairly hefty gradient in low temperatures from the
upper 20s in the northeast where skies remain clear to near 40 in
the southwest. Areas of light rain will likely develop across the
Big Bend region into the Big Country by daybreak Friday, although
there is still some uncertainty in the coverage of precipitation
through Friday. This is partly due to the very dry airmass in
place prior to the warm moist advection spreading north. We`ll
have some generally low PoPs across our southwest spreading north
through the day Friday. All of this is in response to an upper low
digging through the Desert Southwest and into northwest Mexico.

As this low digs south, a secondary upstream shortwave will help
amplify the pattern a bit and kick this low out across the
Southern Plains. Timing of this secondary shortwave will play a
factor in the timing of best precipitation chances through the
weekend across Central and North Texas. It now looks more likely
that ample moisture will be close enough to the region for most of
North and Central Texas to see rainfall. Ensemble cluster analysis
has trended wetter with about 65% of the members, including a
sizable chunk of the ECMWF members, showing at least one shot of
widespread rain late Friday through early Sunday. The
aforementioned timing uncertainty remains, but we`ve trended the
forecast a little wetter with this package. The consensus of the
guidance shows that the best rain chances will coincide with the
strongest height falls spreading into the Southern Plains which
looks like it will occur late Saturday into Saturday night, so
we`ve nudged the NBM PoPs upward through this timeframe, although
some adjustments will likely be needed over the next 48 hours.
Rainfall amounts have also been adjusted upward with widespread
totals of 0.5 to 1.5 inches and higher end amounts approaching 3
inches in our far southeast counties through Sunday. While this
will be a strongly forced system, a lack of any surface based or
substantial elevated instability will limit any potential for
severe weather. Clearing should occur late Sunday with another
cold front spreading south through the Plains Monday night.


Our next system bares watching as things turn colder Monday night with a stronger cold front and more precip.

[Tireman4]

NWS FTW LONG TERM... /Issued 400 AM CST Wed Dec 4 2024/
/Thursday Night through Tuesday/

Modest low level warm advection will commence atop a cold surface
airmass late Thursday night with cloud cover increasing rapidly
from the southwest during the overnight hours. This will likely
result in a fairly hefty gradient in low temperatures from the
upper 20s in the northeast where skies remain clear to near 40 in
the southwest. Areas of light rain will likely develop across the
Big Bend region into the Big Country by daybreak Friday, although
there is still some uncertainty in the coverage of precipitation
through Friday. This is partly due to the very dry airmass in
place prior to the warm moist advection spreading north. We`ll
have some generally low PoPs across our southwest spreading north
through the day Friday. All of this is in response to an upper low
digging through the Desert Southwest and into northwest Mexico.

As this low digs south, a secondary upstream shortwave will help
amplify the pattern a bit and kick this low out across the
Southern Plains. Timing of this secondary shortwave will play a
factor in the timing of best precipitation chances through the
weekend across Central and North Texas. It now looks more likely
that ample moisture will be close enough to the region for most of
North and Central Texas to see rainfall. Ensemble cluster analysis
has trended wetter with about 65% of the members, including a
sizable chunk of the ECMWF members, showing at least one shot of
widespread rain late Friday through early Sunday. The
aforementioned timing uncertainty remains, but we`ve trended the
forecast a little wetter with this package. The consensus of the
guidance shows that the best rain chances will coincide with the
strongest height falls spreading into the Southern Plains which
looks like it will occur late Saturday into Saturday night, so
we`ve nudged the NBM PoPs upward through this timeframe, although
some adjustments will likely be needed over the next 48 hours.
Rainfall amounts have also been adjusted upward with widespread
totals of 0.5 to 1.5 inches and higher end amounts approaching 3
inches in our far southeast counties through Sunday. While this
will be a strongly forced system, a lack of any surface based or
substantial elevated instability will limit any potential for
severe weather. Clearing should occur late Sunday with another
cold front spreading south through the Plains Monday night.


Our next system bares watching as things turn colder Monday night with a stronger cold front and more precip.

Yeah Captin, interesting note from HGX this morning

At Day 7/8, that`s something that I`m
taking note of as something to analyze more deeply in the coming
days. For now...let`s just call it a strong signal that yes, it
is indeed winter and not speculate on it much more than that.
Plenty of time to puzzle this one out yet.

[Brent]

Weird. Not a single GFS ensemble has any snow here. That's crazy

The EPS has a few dustings and like one big storm. I guess we'll see