Texas Winter 2025-2026

[rwfromkansas]

I got icemelt a few years ago. I think I could only find it maybe at Walmart.

I have a bag of that too. I think I got it at a small hardware store. But it didn’t do much good with the sleet last year… and that was just a fraction of what we’re supposed to get this time around.

Yeah, I haven't used it yet since I didn't need to leave, and it melted before I did. This time I probably will need it.

[snownado]

These images below, even on the "colder" GFS, really put into perspective how bad the warm layer truly is...

They show the max temperature throughout the entire column between the surface and 500mb. The line between the dark blue and dark green contour is the freezing mark.

The first image is from 18z Saturday, which shows mid-level temps over DFW around 3-4*C (or 37*F to 39*F).

The second image does show that line finally retreating SE of the Metroplex sometime Sunday morning, but by that point the better forcing/moisture is already pulling off to the NE.

[url]https://i.ibb.co/Ng28kRg5/Screenshot-2026-01-21-192015.png [/url]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/kgWWnQ98/Screenshot-2026-01-21-192810.png [/url]

Would be better if I actually just outlined the freezing line...

[Iceresistance]

I wonder what happens if the Baja Low gets cut-off and it just stays there near California, would it be good for snow, bad for snow, or it's a wildcard?


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkKXj.gif

[Ntxw]

I wonder what happens if the Baja Low gets cut-off and it just stays there near California, would it be good for snow, bad for snow, or it's a wildcard?

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkKXj.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkKXj.gif

Bone dry.

[rwfromkansas]

I wonder what happens if the Baja Low gets cut-off and it just stays there near California, would it be good for snow, bad for snow, or it's a wildcard?

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkKXj.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkKXj.gif

Geez, that's getting too close for comfort.

[DW5522]

I wonder what happens if the Baja Low gets cut-off and it just stays there near California, would it be good for snow, bad for snow, or it's a wildcard?

https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkKXj.gif
https://s12.gifyu.com/images/bkKXj.gif

Bone dry.

Don’t say that out loud! It might hear you.

[bubba hotep]

Through 45h, the 00z 12k NAM looks to have trended towards the 18z GFS at 500mb.

[Ntxw]

Through 45h, the 00z 12k NAM looks to have trended towards the 18z GFS at 500mb.

It is a bit slower out diving in the west (ULL), probably leaning towards a southern track, early guess.

[downsouthman1]

It's a strong ULL; that's for sure. Look at California radars.

[snownado]

Through 12z Saturday, 00z NAM is warmer...

[Ntxw]

The early precip shield may be weaker because more of the energy is still with the stronger baja low, compared to runs before.

[TropicalTundra]

Through 12z Saturday, 00z NAM is warmer...

The trend is not friendly…

Hopefully the models bust and the cold is much colder than we expect. I don’t want ice, but I’m not a fan of sleet either…

[BAY29]

The early precip shield may be weaker because more of the energy is still with the stronger baja low, compared to runs before.

would that be better for SE Texas

[orangeblood]

Through 12z Saturday, 00z NAM is warmer...

FV3 is right on schedule with frz line into DFW around midnight, mid 20s by 12Z. This lines up with NBM and FW NWS office

[snownado]

Through 12z Saturday, 00z NAM is warmer...

After 12z through 00z Sunday, mid-levels and surface temps end up a hair cooler from previous runs. Still not enough for any meaningful differwnce in precip types or accumulation though...

[snownado]

Through 12z Saturday, 00z NAM is warmer...

FV3 is right on schedule with frz line into DFW around midnight, mid 20s by 12Z. This lines up with NBM and FW NWS office

The FV3 is pretty much a hi-res GFS, so not surprised that it would show the same output...

[Ntxw]

Through 12z Saturday, 00z NAM is warmer...

The trend is not friendly…

Hopefully the models bust and the cold is much colder than we expect. I don’t want ice, but I’m not a fan of sleet either…

NAM is a sleet-fest for most of I-20 into northern central TX, heavy snow along I-40, these are the expectations. I'm not sure what the tug is, if you're looking for a foot of snow down here, that's not in the cards, at the moment.

[Wthrfan]

https://i.imgur.com/aLjlihH.png

Ntx, here is a list of analogs for the Southern Plains.

Interesting...there was a foot of snow in my area 1/5/88-1/6/88 and the current forecast is anywhere from 6-12".

[snownado]

And of course, the 00z NAM pushes a big fat dry slot in by 12z Sunday, with the storm being effectively over...

The max temp in the column is still above freezing at this time, BTW.

[TropicalTundra]

Through 12z Saturday, 00z NAM is warmer...

The trend is not friendly…

Hopefully the models bust and the cold is much colder than we expect. I don’t want ice, but I’m not a fan of sleet either…

NAM is a sleet-fest for most of I-20 into northern central TX, heavy snow along I-40, these are the expectations. I'm not sure what the tug is, if you're looking for a foot of snow down here, that's not in the cards, at the moment.

I wouldn’t mind a foot of snow lol. There’s been back to back winters of ice events recently, and it’s not enjoyable. So long as it isn’t ice or something that causes issues, I don’t mind whatever comes our way