Model Wars eastcoast style! ETA vs GFS! 06z

[Guest]

Well well well! As usual the models are split with the GFS having its se bias and keeping just about all the precip from the MD/PA line on south and giving VA/MD/WV all the heavy snows.

GFS total precip out to 60hrs!


The ETA Meanwhile shows a huge snow hit from DC to Bos with amounts well over a foot all the way to the coast perhaps.

ETA QPF 60hrs total!


The CAD signature is starting to show on the models from about Ne GA up thru the central/western Carolinas and into VA which could cause icing concerns in these areas and heavier amounts of snow especially for the apps. Will mention that as well the upper low looks to provide some snow almost to the Carolina coast down to near the GA line!

On the westside of the apps however both models agree QPF wise just slightly diferent temps with the GFS beeing the coldest. Most areas in OH along and north of i70 and east of i75 looks to get the brunt of the snow with amounts closing in on a foot IF you go by the 06z runs. However this is looking to be the case because the models have been saying the same for this area for days now. Only problem that could arise is if the warmer air out ahead of the system gets farther north which could bring down the snow totals in Central OH more or less along i70.

What do i believe? Well im more inclined to take the ETA because it has more support from the EC,Euro and it looks more believable at this point.
The GFS still shows that tropical connection which others has mentioned as well and as well stretches out the system.

Problem i have with both is the location of the High to the north and a lack there of colder temps with a high like that centered where it is (by the models) in se Canada. This as well could be cause for concern in the precip dept (amounts and precip types)??????More later on this!

For those intrested below is the HPC precip forecast 3 day total! This looks like a big hit in NJ, southern PA,MD, DE, VA...........Keeps everything south of NY City! Have my doubts with this as well!



Best bet now is to keep checking back in because i think the next 36hrs we will have alot better handle on things and as well the models should start picking up on things better starting with the 12z run today!

I myself have never really cared for the 06z runs. But thats me.

[Stormsfury]

I myself have never really cared for the 06z runs. But thats me.

Might has well include me in that survey ... 6z and 18z runs, for that matter. For the 3rd consecutive run, the GFS continues to be suppressed and drags the 500mb low south across South Carolina ...

The 6z ETA still takes the 500mb low across NC in a Miller-B Type Scenario with transferrance of energy along the coast (but the low, IMHO will not develop that close to the coast, due to underestimated CAD) ... once again, probably 100 miles offshore (in the best thermal gradient) but the 6z ETA otherwise doesn't look that bad ...

SF

[stormraiser]

Thanks for the update King. Looks like I need to go visit the family back in MD for the weekend.

[JCT777]

Nice discussion, Harry.

[donsutherland1]

KOW,

Good discussion.

As I only have limited time this morning, a few quick comments:

1) One will not see the development of overpowering high pressure (1045 mb +) that would result in suppression of the storm. Suppression is probably a low probability event.

2) Based on the ECMWF's run-to-run continuity, superior performance at 120 hours, and loose consensus (and "loose" is the operative word) between the ECMWF and the ETA and to an extent the GGEM, I believe these solutions offer perhaps the best outline of what will likely happen.

3) Now, it was brought to my attention that an argument has been made that the GFS has been having difficulties due to a lack of data over the Pacific Ocean. However, what is interesting is that the ECMWF has not had the same kind of lack of run-to-run continuity. This also seems to suggest that the ECMWF operating under the same kind of limited data constraints may have a better handle on the upcoming event than the GFS.

Best ideas at this time:

A storm that will deepen to around 990 mb, perhaps a little lower. While this would be no "storm of the century" (though for the infant 21st century the standard might be lower than for the 20th century), it will be no slouch either.

Significant snowfall (6" or more, and possibly a foot) in such places as Catasaqua (see Colin, you've put Catasaqua on the proverbial map), Harrisburg, Allentown, Poughkeepsie, Garrett County (MD), etc. This does not mean that there cannot be a brief period of mixed precipitation or even some rain, though the storm will be predominatly a snowstorm there.

Appreciable snowfall (several inches) after perhaps starting as snow, going to rain for some time and then ending as a period of accumulating snow: Philadelphia, NYC, Providence, Boston.

Mainly to wholly rain, maybe ending as some flurries or a very brief period of wet snow: Cape May, Salisbury, Ocean City

There still remains the threat that the signficant snowfall can get into the big cities, but I'm not yet committed to such an idea. Let's see how the ECMWF runs and then actual developments with regard to the Grand Banks vortex, etc.

For fun, and nothing more:

Suppression would argue for 1979-80.

On the other hand, a blockbuster storm for the big cities would argue for 1960-61. Why? 1960 had two big snowstorms (March 3-4, December 11-12) and the timing of 2003's storms could be within two weeks or less of these storms.

Like I said, this part is just for fun. I'm not placing any undue reliance on these matters just trying to spice up things.

[JCT777]

Don - I hope you are right, but I still have a feeling that accumulating snow will be limited to 50+ miles N & W of the major I-95 cities (DC through NYC).

[StormCrazyIowan]

What do I think? I think I'm mad I don't live on the east coast!!

Nice discussion! (Though I only understood some of it!)

[QCWx]

Looks like the ETA could be trending towards the GFS.

[Stephanie]

This is going to be really interesting for me here in Southern NJ, that's for sure!

[donsutherland1]

Stephanie,

You wrote, "This is going to be really interesting for me here in Southern NJ, that's for sure!"

An excellent point. Model run by model run some are either ready to break open the champagne while others are all but mourning.

While there has been a decided trend on some models in favor of suppression, one would do well to recall that a similar trend had seemed to establish itself a few days prior to the Presidents Day Snowstorm e.g., 2/12 18Z GFS--ironically at roughly a similar distance from the event in terms of timing. Moreover, bear in mind that this was also a question of two waves. Of course, there were some differences, too, but the important point is that there is uncertainty and fluctuations in the modeling might not be revealing much of value at this time.

Overall, at this time of uncertainty, one is probably better served by holding with the more consistent models than those that have been most erratic especially as some model support (e.g., the GGEM) for a decent event in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast remains intact.

Tonight's run of the all-consistent ECMWF will be revealing.

For now, the suppression chorus of the GFS and UKMET notwithstanding, I have no major changes in my thinking.

[wxid]

Hey King, looks like my first 'jip of the season' coming. You remember these storms , dont ya? No wonder you moved, it always the same thing! ARRRGGGGGH !
Wxid (SBY, MD)

[Guest]

Hey King, looks like my first 'jip of the season' coming. You remember these storms , dont ya? No wonder you moved, it always the same thing! ARRRGGGGGH !
Wxid (SBY, MD)

I wouldnt exactly say that yet! Yea i will say you wont get the big amounts but i think you should get a few inches out of this atleast. (More so towards the end of the event instead of the begining as is normally the case!

Quick note on the 12z and 18z GFS - ETA are holding ground with each of thier runs. Im still siding with the ETA as it still has the most support from the others. This is odd seeing each model hold its own for this long and yet differ???

[StormCrazyIowan]

Your first jip wxid?? Yesterday was my third!!! LOL Not to mention the last two seasons but who's counting!! ROFL

[wxid]

Your first jip wxid?? Yesterday was my third!!! LOL Not to mention the last two seasons but who's counting!! ROFL

....at least you get alot more chances! LOL Its usually 3-5 chances all winter here, with a 90% jip rate. I am on the Delmarva Penisula, so its very diff than DC corridors' wx.
Wxid

[NCWeatherChic]

LOL
People are going to go crazy here tomorrow. Glad I did my shopping today!
This board is getting on my nerves. It keeps makin' me login every other page so I can't see any replies. So hopefully I'm not double posting.