Really nice here tonight.......

[Anonymous]

The temps have risen to 53 degrees with a dewpoint of 45 degrees......It is downright NICE out there, feels very much like an OBX Analog. It's been so cold lately that our present 53/45 T/D spread feels more like 67/59. This would sure be a nice evening to go out for a jebwalk (Like I did so much at OBX), but it's raining so hard!!! We might get 2 inches of rain tonight.

If only it was all snow..............................................





-SnowBlitzJEB

[Stormsfury]

The temps have risen to 53 degrees with a dewpoint of 45 degrees......It is downright NICE out there, feels very much like an OBX Analog. It's been so cold lately that our present 53/45 T/D spread feels more like 67/59. This would sure be a nice evening to go out for a jebwalk (Like I did so much at OBX), but it's raining so hard!!! We might get 2 inches of rain tonight.

If only it was all snow..............................................

-SnowBlitzJEB

2 inches sound about right. Both the ETA/GFS 48 hour QPF's return that much precip in your area (this was at 12z) and with the second development, the area of rain along the actual cold front intensified and made it a very rough drive home tonight from Charleston.

FWIW, SPC issued a mesoscale discussion about the line intensifying, and even more so now, that possible Weather Watch has now become Severe Thunderstorm Watch #981 ..



http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0981.html

[RNS]

Looking at the latest mesoanalysis i have no reason to disagree...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s3/lllr.html

LLVL Lapse rates are still mostly moist adiabatic though increasing (to 6.50 C/km) across southeast north carolina...indicating better instability. All the while most unstable capes are approiaching 1500 j/kg just off shore.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s3/mucp.html

0-3km AGL storm relative helicity is very impressive (on the order of 450-600 m2/s2) across the watch area. Normally such values in the face of increasing instability are suggestive supercell formation and tornadic development.

if we look at EHI (energy-helicity Index) values one can see this more clearly. values are approaching 3.0 off shore (remember the EHI takes into consideration the relationship between Instability (CAPE) and shear in order to determine tonadic potential). EHI values of greater than 1.0 are indicative of supercell development.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s3/ehi3.html

Note also the tounge of enhanced low level moisure (dewpoints in excess of 56F) nosing northward into southeast VA:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s3/ttd.html

this would also help support convection given the very strong dynamics associated with this system.

BL6 Shear of greater than 35kt across the watch area would support further convective organization

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s3/shr6.html