My Letter to Mt Holly NWS.

[LMolineux]

To whom this concerns,
Mt Holly NWS Meteorologists


Hello there my name is Lee Molineux. The reason I am writing this email to you is my concern of the forecasts. I have been
noticing a few things as of late. I have been a weather nut since 1992 but since just before Dec. 5th 2002 is when I started diving
into forecasting. Hitting it hard at times I have looking over all the forecast models. So far i have pretty much learned alot off of
the GFS and ETA. I am now trying to learn and get better at forecasting with these other models GGEM (Canadian) the
UKMET and EURO models. Basically what it has been coming down to is my favorite weather event which is snow. I am a
Nor'easter fan for sure. Even my CB Handle is Nor'Easter. Most of my life is dedicated to the weather. But foremost is the
current trend. Everytime there is an event it looks great from past 96 hours on the GFS for this area. I live in Bryn Mawr
(Villanova) Area. Just 1 mile East of I-476. As i have been noticing is when the storms come up the East Coast due to the SST's
and Cold Air Damming they are lacking therefore here in SE PA to keep it siginificant snows for even Philadelphia. As I am
correct right with 4.8inches of snow for Philadelphia for the Dec. 5th and 6th Snow event. Where in Baltimore i do believe it was
6.8inches and near if not above 7 inches in DC and 15+" give or take a few inches in NYC. But basically it is coming down to
the need for snow and the lack thereof. I have been looking at the Trends and also refering to the CPC for the NAO and PNA
forecasts also. Normally and typically Neg NAO and Pos PNA to a troughy stormy pattern over the East Coast. So Far the
trough has been a bit more west to my liking. Basically we are on the fringe on the East side of the trough. So Far examining the
GFS its live or die for me. Not literally Live or Die. But my main point is seing this majorly stormy pattern is just to when there
will be a major snow event from DC to Allentown Including Philly and SE. With this current pattern it is less condusive for great
snows for these areas I have mentioned. Even the GFS has flip flopped continously. Last nights ETA and GFS Run on the 00Z
run looked great but I did keep in the back of my mind to check out the 06Z runs to see if ti kept the trend and low and behold it
trended warmer also with the ETA and GFS so again a miss for this area. I have noticed the Euro and UKMET have also
treneded east somewhat. I also have noticed that the UKMET and GGEM have had a big warm bias. But I am wandering from
the Pro's angle. What do you see if any chances of major snows here in the excess of 6+ 12+ 18+ inches for us? And any
chances of a Blizzard. I know the Word Blizzard is over used and not likely but still. I would seriously be extremely happy with a
major raging blizzard here something to shut down things for a few days. Can you please help me out in clearing somethings up for
me so I am less confused.

Thank you,
Lee Molineux II
Weather Fan since 1992.

[roarusdogus]

I applaud you for the effort on spelling since you are writing a proffessional type letter. I'm not quite clear on exactly what you are asking them though?

[LMolineux]

roarus is that an insult or is that a praise? I Tried hard thsi morning on typing it great. Ort at least good.

[roarusdogus]

It is a praise on your effort on spelling. I know how you struggle with spelling and this is by far the best writing I have seen from you. You did a good job with the spelling. A+ for sure. I'm just not sure though what your main question is?

[Heady Guy]

Looks like he is -removed- for snow and does not like the new models

[john697]

Lee,

IMO your letter is too long...read it a couple of times and still couldn't figure out exactly what you were asking.

I have written e-mails to my local NWS office (GSP) several times and have always received nice responses. Be advised that it might take several days for you to get a answer....active weather pattern right now, and the type of hours they work, the e-mail contact might be on his/her days off.

You did the right thing...you had a question about weather in your area, and you sent it to your local NWS office.

Hoping you get a big snow!