Wet pattern to be moving into the SW - finally!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
azsnowman
- Category 5
- Posts: 8591
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 8:56 pm
- Location: Pinetop Arizona. Elevation 7102' (54 miles west of NM border)
I can't believe it, this system is STILL holding together, normally when they make a call as early as they did on this one, it fizzles but NOT this one!
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AND SNOW SHOWERS FALLING OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. A MUCH STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE CHRISTMAS
DAY...AND WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL BRING WINDY AND
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...S/WV MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS MORNING HAS LOTS OF MOISTURE WITH IT...BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DYNAMICS. STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...BUT NO
AMOUNTS THAT WOULD CREATE ANY PROBLEMS. VERY SHORT WAVE-LENGTH RIDGE
FOLLOWS THIS TROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF OUR FIRST MAJOR STORM OF THIS
WINTER SEASON. MODELS STILL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A STRONG
TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY...AND DOWN INTO ARIZONA DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. ABOUT A 12 HOUR PERIOD OF COLD AND MOIST AIR WITH
STRONG DYNAMICS WILL IMPINGE ON THE RIM WITH ABOUT 50 KNOTS OF
UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS PRODUCING BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES QPF
WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS IN THE
GRIDS...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY TEXT PRODUCTS YET...BESIDES A SPS
VALID FOR FRIDAY.
Dennis
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES AND SNOW SHOWERS FALLING OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. A MUCH STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE CHRISTMAS
DAY...AND WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS STORM WILL BRING WINDY AND
MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE...ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...S/WV MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ARIZONA
THIS MORNING HAS LOTS OF MOISTURE WITH IT...BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DYNAMICS. STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST...BUT NO
AMOUNTS THAT WOULD CREATE ANY PROBLEMS. VERY SHORT WAVE-LENGTH RIDGE
FOLLOWS THIS TROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF OUR FIRST MAJOR STORM OF THIS
WINTER SEASON. MODELS STILL FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A STRONG
TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY...AND DOWN INTO ARIZONA DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. ABOUT A 12 HOUR PERIOD OF COLD AND MOIST AIR WITH
STRONG DYNAMICS WILL IMPINGE ON THE RIM WITH ABOUT 50 KNOTS OF
UPSLOPE FLOW. MODELS PRODUCING BETWEEN 0.50 AND 1.00 INCHES QPF
WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. HAVE INCLUDED SNOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS IN THE
GRIDS...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY TEXT PRODUCTS YET...BESIDES A SPS
VALID FOR FRIDAY.
Dennis
0 likes
-
azsnowman
- Category 5
- Posts: 8591
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 8:56 pm
- Location: Pinetop Arizona. Elevation 7102' (54 miles west of NM border)
SPS just issued! The call for 4-8" is conservative for my area, I'm gonna stick my neck out and call for 8-13".......I live in a valley JUST above the rim, I get the FULL blunt of the orographic lift!
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
630 AM MST WED DEC 24 2003
AZZ004>018-037>040-242300-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-BLACK MESA AREA-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
...STRONG WINTER STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN ARIZONA LATE
IN THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 3500 FEET BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY...AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES...CHECK THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
HOME PAGE AT http://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/FLAGSTAFF...OR TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION.
Dennis
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
630 AM MST WED DEC 24 2003
AZZ004>018-037>040-242300-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-BLACK MESA AREA-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
...STRONG WINTER STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN ARIZONA LATE
IN THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM. SNOW LEVELS WILL
FALL TO AROUND 3500 FEET BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU LATE IN
THE DAY THURSDAY...AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES...CHECK THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
HOME PAGE AT http://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/FLAGSTAFF...OR TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION.
Dennis
0 likes
-
weatherlover427
Awesome 
Let's hope that you get your rain.
On a side note, it's looking like two storms could be coming our way within the next week or so ... here are some details:
CAZ042-242230-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
330 AM PST WED DEC 24 2003
.TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 61 TO 66. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 49 TO 54. LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.CHRISTMAS DAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS 58 TO 63. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY...THEN RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 46 TO 51. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 51 TO 59. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 36 TO 45.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 56 TO 62.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 33 TO 41.
[size=9].SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 58 TO 63.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS 37 TO 43.
.MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS 55 TO 61.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 41 TO 47.
.TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS 57 TO 62.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
500 AM PST WED DEC 24 2003
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD MOIST PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS DECREASING DURING THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLDER STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.
INCRGLY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO ORANGE COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES WL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO SAN DIEGO COUNTY TONIGHT AND THU. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SRN CA. THIS WL ALSO BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH SNOW LVLS LOWERING TO 3500 TO 4000 FT BY FRI MORNING. THIS COULD BRING SNOW TO THE DESERT FOOTHILLS OF THE SBD COUNTY MTNS LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. COLD AIR IS NOT OPTIMALLY TIMED WITH THE PD OF HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPTATION FOR HVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MTNS. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SBD/RIV COUNTY MTNS LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS SHOULD EVALUATE WHAT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL (LIQUID EQUIVALENT) THRU FRI WL RANGE FM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH AT THE COAST TO 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THE MTNS AND CSTL FOOTHILLS. AROUND ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER DESERTS AND ONE QUARTER INCH IN THE LOWER DESERTS. MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BURN AREAS...MAINLY THU NIGHT AND FRI. SHOWERS WL LINGER ALG AND WEST OF THE MTNS FRI WITH BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. ETA/UKMET BOTH MAINTAIN MORE RESIDUAL TROUGHING OVR SRN CA AND THE ERN PAC INTO SAT OR SAT NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION WAS GENERALLY FAVORED BY HPC OVR THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY DIURNAL ISLAND EFFECT SHOWERS AT LEAST THRU FRI NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SAT NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS ARE BOTH ADVERISING A POTENTIALLY STRONGER AND COLDER STORM FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUE.
and...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA-
545 AM PST WED DEC 24 2003
...A PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...
A COLD PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN PART OF THE STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. PRELIMINARY RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE FOR ABOUT A HALF TO ONE INCH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...ONE AND ONE HALF TO TWO AND ONE HALF INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH IN THE DESERTS. THE RAIN COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN THE RECENTLY BURNED AREAS.
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN NEAR 6500 FEET THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN LOWER RAPIDLY TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE CAJON PASS AND ON THE DESERT FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE LARGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE COULD BE 6 INCHES TO ONE FOOT OF SNOW. UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. (near me) STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...AND WIND CHILL COULD BE DEADLY FOR UNPREPARED CAMPERS OR HIKERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY AS THE STORM MOVES EAST. PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD STAY INFORMED ON THIS APPROACHING STORM.
Let's hope that you get your rain.
On a side note, it's looking like two storms could be coming our way within the next week or so ... here are some details:
CAZ042-242230-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
330 AM PST WED DEC 24 2003
.TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING. HIGHS 61 TO 66. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 49 TO 54. LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.CHRISTMAS DAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS 58 TO 63. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY...THEN RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 46 TO 51. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 51 TO 59. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 36 TO 45.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 56 TO 62.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 33 TO 41.
[size=9].SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 58 TO 63.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS 37 TO 43.
.MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS 55 TO 61.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 41 TO 47.
.TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS 57 TO 62.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA
500 AM PST WED DEC 24 2003
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD MOIST PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS DECREASING DURING THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLDER STORM IS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.
INCRGLY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO ORANGE COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES WL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO SAN DIEGO COUNTY TONIGHT AND THU. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SRN CA. THIS WL ALSO BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH SNOW LVLS LOWERING TO 3500 TO 4000 FT BY FRI MORNING. THIS COULD BRING SNOW TO THE DESERT FOOTHILLS OF THE SBD COUNTY MTNS LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. COLD AIR IS NOT OPTIMALLY TIMED WITH THE PD OF HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPTATION FOR HVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MTNS. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SBD/RIV COUNTY MTNS LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS SHOULD EVALUATE WHAT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL (LIQUID EQUIVALENT) THRU FRI WL RANGE FM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH AT THE COAST TO 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN THE MTNS AND CSTL FOOTHILLS. AROUND ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER DESERTS AND ONE QUARTER INCH IN THE LOWER DESERTS. MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BURN AREAS...MAINLY THU NIGHT AND FRI. SHOWERS WL LINGER ALG AND WEST OF THE MTNS FRI WITH BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. ETA/UKMET BOTH MAINTAIN MORE RESIDUAL TROUGHING OVR SRN CA AND THE ERN PAC INTO SAT OR SAT NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION WAS GENERALLY FAVORED BY HPC OVR THE GFS SOLUTION. THIS WOULD FAVOR THE CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY DIURNAL ISLAND EFFECT SHOWERS AT LEAST THRU FRI NIGHT AND POSSIBLY SAT NIGHT. ECMWF/GFS ARE BOTH ADVERISING A POTENTIALLY STRONGER AND COLDER STORM FOR LATE MONDAY INTO TUE.
and...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA-
545 AM PST WED DEC 24 2003
...A PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY...
A COLD PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WHILE THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN PART OF THE STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. PRELIMINARY RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE FOR ABOUT A HALF TO ONE INCH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...ONE AND ONE HALF TO TWO AND ONE HALF INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH IN THE DESERTS. THE RAIN COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN THE RECENTLY BURNED AREAS.
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL REMAIN NEAR 6500 FEET THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN LOWER RAPIDLY TO 3500 TO 4000 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE CAJON PASS AND ON THE DESERT FOOTHILLS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE LARGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS WHERE THERE COULD BE 6 INCHES TO ONE FOOT OF SNOW. UP TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. (near me) STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW...AND WIND CHILL COULD BE DEADLY FOR UNPREPARED CAMPERS OR HIKERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY AS THE STORM MOVES EAST. PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA SHOULD STAY INFORMED ON THIS APPROACHING STORM.
0 likes
-
weatherlover427
-
azsnowman
- Category 5
- Posts: 8591
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 8:56 pm
- Location: Pinetop Arizona. Elevation 7102' (54 miles west of NM border)
White Mountains of Az........"Home of the WHOPPER!" WOW! Check THIS out!
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
$$
WWUS85 KFGZ 251022
SPSFGZ
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
320 AM MST THU DEC 25 2003
AZZ004>018-037>040-251800-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-BLACK MESA AREA-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
...STRONG WINTER STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND STRONG
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...
A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN ARIZONA BY
THIS EVENING. THIS STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
STATE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 3500 FEET BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS
ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF
FLAGSTAFF. WIND GUSTS WHERE HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING WILL STAY
AROUND 30 MPH. THIS COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VISIBILITY WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. RAIN AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH-FACING SLOPES...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 6500 FEET. HAZARDOUS
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES...CHECK THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
HOME PAGE AT http://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/FLAGSTAFF...OR TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION.
Dennis
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
$$
WWUS85 KFGZ 251022
SPSFGZ
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
320 AM MST THU DEC 25 2003
AZZ004>018-037>040-251800-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-BLACK MESA AREA-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
...STRONG WINTER STORM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND STRONG
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...
A STRONG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN ARIZONA BY
THIS EVENING. THIS STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
STATE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO
AROUND 3500 FEET BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS
ARE ALSO LIKELY WITH THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY EAST OF
FLAGSTAFF. WIND GUSTS WHERE HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS FALLING WILL STAY
AROUND 30 MPH. THIS COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VISIBILITY WITH
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. RAIN AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER SOUTH-FACING SLOPES...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 6500 FEET. HAZARDOUS
WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES...CHECK THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
HOME PAGE AT http://WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/FLAGSTAFF...OR TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION.
Dennis
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therock1811
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azsnowman
- Category 5
- Posts: 8591
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 8:56 pm
- Location: Pinetop Arizona. Elevation 7102' (54 miles west of NM border)
HOT DAM and HEEEEERE we GOoooooo!
BTW Jeremy, I "HOPE" your right, it's gonna take at LEAST 10-16 storms of this strength to delay the fire season. In fact, 1998, we had a normal winter, the fire season of 1999 was terrible, no matter HOW much snow we get, it dries out QUICK come May, June.....prime fire season!
AFDFLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST THU DEC 25 2003
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND COLD PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA
TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000
FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF FLAGSTAFF. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH RAIN AND SNOW WILL DECREASE TO JUST
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN
AND SNOW TO ARIZONA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT OVER CALIF CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
STATE PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL ENTER NW
AZ EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT THE CWA IS UNDER A WARM...STRONG SW FLOW
ALOFT. A 250 MB JET NOSES INTO AZ TONIGHT WITH H7 WINDS INCREASING TO
50-55 KTS. LOOKING FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SPEED
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS...LIFT AND
DEEPEST MOISTURE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AIDED BY STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW.
PRECIP EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE
WEST DURING THE DAY. WILL ISSUE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU AND WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM TONIGHT THRU NOON TOMORROW AND FOR
THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITES FOR FRIDAY. SW FLOW WILL KEEP MINS
TONIGHT ELEVATED. COLDEST AIR IS BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT TEMPS
TO FALL DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. SNOW LEVEL TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
6000 FT OVER THE KAIBAB TO 7500 FT IN THE WHITE. TOMORROW THE SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO 3000 FT IN THE KAIBAB TO 5500 OVER THE WHITES.
COLDER NW FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF INSTABILITY
SHOWERS FOR MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
EXTENDED...PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH GENERAL TROFINESS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. RUN TO RUN CHANGES FROM MODEL TO MODEL MAKE IT HARD TO
PINPOINT TIMING AND PARTICULARS. THE PATTERN LOOKS MOIST AND WILL
LEAVE FCST AS IS WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THRU THE PERIOD. DF
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SNOW ADV MIDNIGHT TO NOON FRIDAY
ZNS 4...6...7...15...38
SNOW ADV FRI FOR ZNS 16...17...18
ABOVE 5500 FEET
&&
$$
Dennis
BTW Jeremy, I "HOPE" your right, it's gonna take at LEAST 10-16 storms of this strength to delay the fire season. In fact, 1998, we had a normal winter, the fire season of 1999 was terrible, no matter HOW much snow we get, it dries out QUICK come May, June.....prime fire season!
AFDFLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST THU DEC 25 2003
.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND COLD PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA
TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000
FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM...
ESPECIALLY EAST OF FLAGSTAFF. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH RAIN AND SNOW WILL DECREASE TO JUST
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN
AND SNOW TO ARIZONA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT OVER CALIF CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
STATE PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL ENTER NW
AZ EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT THE CWA IS UNDER A WARM...STRONG SW FLOW
ALOFT. A 250 MB JET NOSES INTO AZ TONIGHT WITH H7 WINDS INCREASING TO
50-55 KTS. LOOKING FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SPEED
JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS...LIFT AND
DEEPEST MOISTURE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT AIDED BY STRONG OROGRAPHIC FLOW.
PRECIP EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE
WEST DURING THE DAY. WILL ISSUE SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU AND WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM TONIGHT THRU NOON TOMORROW AND FOR
THE EASTERN RIM AND WHITES FOR FRIDAY. SW FLOW WILL KEEP MINS
TONIGHT ELEVATED. COLDEST AIR IS BEHIND THE FRONT AND EXPECT TEMPS
TO FALL DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. SNOW LEVEL TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
6000 FT OVER THE KAIBAB TO 7500 FT IN THE WHITE. TOMORROW THE SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO 3000 FT IN THE KAIBAB TO 5500 OVER THE WHITES.
COLDER NW FLOW CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF INSTABILITY
SHOWERS FOR MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
EXTENDED...PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH GENERAL TROFINESS OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. RUN TO RUN CHANGES FROM MODEL TO MODEL MAKE IT HARD TO
PINPOINT TIMING AND PARTICULARS. THE PATTERN LOOKS MOIST AND WILL
LEAVE FCST AS IS WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP THRU THE PERIOD. DF
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SNOW ADV MIDNIGHT TO NOON FRIDAY
ZNS 4...6...7...15...38
SNOW ADV FRI FOR ZNS 16...17...18
ABOVE 5500 FEET
&&
$$
Dennis
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weatherlover427
Christmas Day/Outlook
Yesterday was very blustery.......snow was reported on the grapevine as well....and we have another storm coming in late this weekend!!!!
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