The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
). Anyway, here is the update from fox19.com
Enjoy!
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January 2004 Weather Outlook,
From Meteorologist Rich Apuzzo
Welcome to 2004. We ended a very exciting weather year in 2003 though you may be surprised at how the year will go in the record books. Total precipitation for the year was 42.9 inches, which is only 3 tenths of an inch above normal, yet we had our typically dry months come in with above normal rains. May 2003 had 7.29 inches of rain, which is 2.7 inches above normal! July and August were both over an inch above normal in rainfall and September came in with 5.07 inches, almost twice normal. With all that rain, we ended the year only .30 inch above normal? What's up with that? Well, January, March, April, June, October and December all came in below normal in rainfall with April recording a 2.05 inch deficit. So, 6 months above and 6 months below normal, and it all averages out. We had a wild weather year, and yet the record books will show it as a year with near-normal rainfall. That's okay because good meteorologists and climatologists will always look at the monthly and daily data to get a more accurate picture of the year's weather. If you thought it was a cooler year, you were right. We ended the year 1047 total degrees below normal, or about 3 degrees per day cooler than average, and 7 of the 12 months were cooler than average.
December 2003 was as expected; snowier than average with near normal temperatures. We had 6.1 inches of snow, with 4.1 being typical for the month. We also ran 27 degrees above average, but that's only 9 tenths of a degree per day above normal. In fact, if not for the unusual warmth in the last five days, the month would have easily come in below normal. So, generally speaking it was a chilly and snowy month. Now it's time to head into 2004 and I'll start with a look at what a typical January offers us.
January is the coldest month of the year in the United States, and for the Cincinnati area that is reflected in average high and low temperatures of 39 and 22 on January 1st, cooling to 37 and 21 by the 11th, and then climbing back to 39 and 21 by the 31st. That's right, normal temperatures bottom out in the first two weeks and begin the slow climb toward spring by the end of the month・ut slow is the operative word there. The month is fairly dry with only 2.92 inches of precipitation on average, but the 6.7 inches of snow we normally receive makes it our snowiest month of the year. January can see some bitter cold too. The coldest reading ever in Cincinnati was on January 18th, 1977 when we hit 25 below zero! Then again, 70s are possible this time of year and in 1943 the thermometer read 77 degrees on the 24th! The snowiest January was in 1978 when we got pounded with 31.5 inches of snow, though as recently as 1989, there was only a Trace of snow in January.
Before I give you my January outlook, it's best to look at what factors will be affecting the forecast over the next month. I mentioned at the end of November (in the December and Winter Weather Outlooks) that a weak El Nino was developing in the equatorial waters west of South America, and that continues. However, the latest data show no signs of it getting stronger・n fact; it may have weakened a little in the past month. Remember that El Nino episodes tend to mean milder and drier winters here, but weak El Ninos do not have the same impact. Any time you have a weak player in the weather formula, you need to look at other factors that may have an impact. A large mass of arctic air has been growing larger and colder over central and northern Canada and it will build south toward the United States, which means that storms will have a source of very cold air as they cross the Midwest. I have also noticed some unusually warm sea surface temperatures of the central and western Pacific Ocean. It appears as if these warm waters combined with very cold ocean waters off the west coast of Canada have aided in the development of powerful Pacific storms that have been pounding the western United States. That pattern will continue, which means our weather will remain active in January.
So, combine strong Pacific storms, tropical moisture and bitter cold and what do you get? You get a busy January in the weather office at FOX19. I think we'll see slightly below normal temperatures for January, though the month started mild and it wouldn't be surprising to see other surges or warmth as storms approach. But those warm-ups should be easily offset by the bitter cold air ready to come south. I also expect a stormy month which means above normal rainfall and snowfall. I am looking at the possibility for 7 to 12 inches of snow (normal is around 7 inches). It is very important to note, however, that just one powerful storm can blow that forecast out of the water, and I am expecting some rather potent storms this month so we may see another January like last year when we received 9.5 inches of snow・r we may see a lot more.
Welcome to the New Year and thank you very much for watching FOX19 and for reading my long-winded forecasts・t means a lot to me. Have a great year!
