JAN 9-10 southern Snow and the POTENTIAL SECS JAN 12-14

[Guest]

First let's talk about the minor to moderate event which is going to effect portions of the eastern US January 9 10. The midday models continue to trend that they have shown for the last couple of days--- that the system is mainly a Tennessee Valley Lower Middle Atlantic and possibly Southeast snowfall and there is NOT going to be much North of the Ohio river and D.C.

Of course this is not going to be a big deal in any event but again for people who typically don't get significant snow 2" in Atlanta is a big deal. The real problem for the NE US is the polar jet is simply too strong across the Great Lakes in a month to allow for any kind of the phasing to develop between this shortwave in the STJ and the PJ.

The ETA model is a little wetter at 84 hours to GFS is a little drier while the midday Canadian is fairly consistent with the development of the weak Low over Alabama & Mississippi then moving off the Carolina coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084s.gif


http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... _0000.html

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_am ... N_108_0000.

As we move towards the next big event for the central & eastern United States on Jan. 12 the 14th there are some differences in the models which has to be dealt with. The overall pattern is retrogressing.... The ridge which is now over the West Coast and Rockies and the trough which is going to be on the east coast this week -- THAT is why the southern Low will NOT be able to turn the corner in time -- will move back towards the West Coast into a classic teammate pattern as shown by the day 9-10 ECMWF and Operational Canadian.

The operational GFS does not really show this retrogression pattern that well and this leads to a problem with the Jan. 12 the 14th low pressure system. The midday GFS just like the 00z run... has Jan 12-14 system developing nicely but appears to be too far north with it at 168 hours.

As you can see from this link there is a very powerful jet streak which is driving rapidly south from central Canada into the Mississippi Valley as the shortwave in the polar jet begins to phase with the shortwave in the STJ

Yet as you can see the model does not had any sort of enhanced jet streak at all at 200 or 300 MB level. Thus the GFS does not drop the system far enough to the South and has moved across the NE at day 8.

I suspect that as we move into this event and the timeframe when the medium-range models handle things better.... The system will drop further South with each passing run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_180s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192s.gif

[kpantz]

Great post DT...second only to the "you'll get banned here" crack a little while ago

Seriously, though...I'm suspecting that the loss of resolution just past the medium range is what's victimizing the GFS here. The pattern retrogression is key in this scenario, and if the GFS can't resolve the details, it's going to get a bit lost.

Got a related question for you: years ago, when I was in college (studying meteo, of course!), there was a January in which there was a series of about 3 systems...each one was less and less suppressed, eventually leading to one that ran up the coast. It was as if the leading shortwaves were helping to carve and deepen the longwave trough. Is that similar to what's happening here, or is that behavior just a manifestation of a retrograding trough? Are they just totally separate processes? I'm inclined to believe that they're totally different, but it's interesting that both processes can produce the same end result: working the pattern towards one that can support a coast-hugger.

-K

[Constructionwx]

bump

[Constructionwx]

,l,mm

[JCT777]

Nice update, DT. I am hoping this 2nd event (1/12-1/14) becomes a nice east coast winter storm.

[Mr Bob]

There is a problem for the SE on Jan 9....To get Eta QPF values, WAA will have to be stronger thus giving a mostly cold light rain event except in the southern Apps....The GFS is ALOT colder and therefore far drier....It is a tightrope in ATL for these types of systems...need some moisture but not too much....Now, dew points will be way down and some very dry modified polar air could be trapped for a little "wedging" (not classic CAD) and that may aid Atlanta, but mainly rw- here and BHM and too dry points northward, IMO....

Agree on Jan 12-14...looks as good as anything over the last few years so far...

[2001kx]

no storm 12-14
not on a weekend-lol

im over due for a snowstorm,lets hope this thing pans out...this
rain sucks

[Feanáro]

It looks like chances are increasing for us here in NC. But as Mr. Bob points out, it's going to be difficult to get things to work out just right. But we still have a few days to watch it. I'm hoping for some snow.

Nice discussion, DT.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Nice Write Up, DT. 1 question, MECS or SECS?

[rainstorm]

dont know , the flow is hardly conducive to any storm formation. a few flurries possible here fri. now, if only the arctic cold had plunged through texas first, then headed east

[wow]

Maybe the Jan 12 s/w isn't the "big one." The wave south of AK here may have more possibilities. Ensembles make a big noise about it:

[JCT777]

dont know , the flow is hardly conducive to any storm formation. a few flurries possible here fri. now, if only the arctic cold had plunged through texas first, then headed east

There were a few nice winter storms last winter and one about a month ago that did not have arctic cold plunging through Texas prior to the storms.

[JQ Public]

I am definitly watching this one closely. Thanks for keeping up with it guys.

[rainstorm]

dont know , the flow is hardly conducive to any storm formation. a few flurries possible here fri. now, if only the arctic cold had plunged through texas first, then headed east

There were a few nice winter storms last winter and one about a month ago that did not have arctic cold plunging through Texas prior to the storms.

they all missed c/e va.

[JQ Public]

anything new with this system?

[Stephanie]

Looks like it's been pushed back a day -

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _228.shtml

However, there is a weaker system that goes to the north of us through the Great Lakes on the 13th that may give us some light snow.