GFS looks like it might phase!

[FLguy]

what would have to happen is the trough would have to split kicking kicking one piece of energy out and lagging something in behind so that as the STJ s/w comes out...the s/w which is left behind in the PJ is allowed to dig and phase.

this of course is bending on the fact that the trough sliptting DOES occur and the STJ energy comes out. the EC usually wont get a handle on this (given its bias) until we get a bit closer to the event. the GFS right now is handling the system better at least IMO.

but one thing that the operational GFS IS SHOWING is run-to-run CONSISTENCY bringing the system further north. I dont think the EC is right keeping the STJ energy heald back like that. the SOI is now and has been negative...which would imply MORE progression in the STJ. so therefore its likely that the models (even the GFS to a degree) are TOO SLOW kicking it out. but we shall see...

[Snow Plow]

HM?

You are correct!

[NJSnowFreak]

ONLY if it phases...

It's possible, but I remember DT saying there's currently no mechanism for phasing to occur...but that one could form..

JB's been pushing this hard for a week...so we'll see what happens...

[greg81988]

so is there going to be a problem with precip types also for central virginia??

[Snow Plow]

does that cause the cold air to go away???

Do you remember in Ghost Busters when they said "don't cross the streams?"

Well, get the picture? Jet streams phasing..... Oh My

[FLguy]

ONLY if it phases...

It's possible, but I remember DT saying there's currently no mechanism for phasing to occur...but that one could form..

JB's been pushing this hard for a week...so we'll see what happens...

given the progression it all depends on whats out there in the PAC to kick the STJ energy out. the operational GFS still had the confluence zone fairly far to the south so it would primarly be a mid-atlantic event. IF the GFS were to be right.

[chadtm80]

What is the HM talk?? Did I miss somthing? lol

[2001kx]

What is the HM talk?? Did I miss somthing? lol

he talked about about a big storm in this time period for a while on wwbb

[CentralNJwx]

wow, i just checked it out..damn lets hope this trend continues.spreads light snows well north ..into the North Middle Atlantic

[Snow Plow]

What is the HM talk?? Did I miss somthing? lol

This dude said:

If this really comes together, you know who deserves the utmost of kudos for sticking his neck out so far so early, when virtually nothing was showing it. Big risks deserve big applause if it comes true.

Followed by this dude saying:

HM?

then I said "you are correct".


I guess you did not know HM made a call for this last year?

[greg81988]

say there is no phasing what will that mean? precip types?? where will teh energy go??

[CentralNJwx]

wow, i just checked it out..damn lets hope this trend continues.spreads light snows well north ..into the North Middle Atlantic

[chadtm80]

Ya.. Ok Gotcha.. Some times the old hampster falls off the wheel and I need a smack in the back of the head to get me going again.. LOL KOW had just set me straight on the issue

thanks

[kpantz]

The 12Z GFS ensembles seem to lend some support to the phasing/further north idea. Look at N05!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ENSHGT_12z/f144.html

[Guest]

looks like a bunch of rain to me

phase uncancel
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

[Snow Plow]

The 12Z GFS ensembles seem to lend some support to the phasing/further north idea. Look at N05!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ENSHGT_12z/f144.html

What the heck is that Avatar? Looks like an "Angry Cigarette"

[CentralNJwx]

btw, 00z GFS continues the trend