To be cold or not to be cold...that is the question lol

[timNms]

NWS discussion from Jackson, MS. The extended is interesting....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
430 AM CST MON JAN 26 2004

.SHORT TERM...NOT MUCH TO MENTION TODAY EXCEPT THAT IT WILL BE
ANOTHER WARM ONE! EXPECTING TEMPS TO REACH LOWER TO MID 70S AREA
WIDE TODAY. AS FOR CLOUDS...CIRRUS WILL PUSH EAST BY MID-MORNING. WE
WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME PESKY ALTO CU BUT FEEL THEY WILL NOT
BLOCK THE SUN MUCH AND WILL WORD MOSTLY SUNNY OR BECOMING SUNNY.

CHANGES OCCUR TONIGHT AS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CWA BY 6 PM...BE ACROSS
CENTRAL SECTIONS BY 10 PM AND EAST OF THE CWA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HUGE TEMP DROP WITH FROPA. THE MERCURY WILL STEADILY FALL
INTO THE LOWER 30S ALL LOCATIONS. TEMPS WILL NOT BE MY ONLY PROBLEM
HOWEVER. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LOW CLOUD DECK...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20.
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL EXIST ACROSS MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THIS SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AS INTENSE MID-LEVEL
FORCING MOVES OVERHEAD. OK...THAT IS THE LIQUID PART. SHORTLY AFTER
THE COLD LOW-LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN. THIS WILL SUPPORT SNOW FLURRIES.
WILL MENTION THE CHANGE OVER BUT MOISTURE SEEMS TOO LIMITED FOR ANY
ACCUMULATION. NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES.

FOR TUE-WED...COLD!!! I HAVE DRAMATICALLY LOWERED MAX TEMPS (SOME
10-15 DEGREES TUE/WED) COLD ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS COLD CANADIAN AIR SETTLES IN. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS
TO BE WED WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AREA WIDE.

.LONG TERM...NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE THU AND EFFECT THE ARE
THROUGH EARLY FRI. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN LINE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND HAVE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
WE LOOK TO HAVE SOME SFC WAVE OR LOW DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WITH THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL BRING
A FAIRLY COLD RAIN TO MOST OF THE AREA. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE
THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRI THROUGH SUN IS ANYONES GUESS. I CAN'T BELIEVE I SAID THAT, BUT I
DID. NEEDLESS TO SAY I DON'T HAVE A CLUE. THE FORECAST POSSIBILITIES
FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT. ONE SOLUTION
BRINGS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS INTO THE AREA FRI/SAT WITH WINTRY PRECIP
POSSIBLE. TEMPS WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR LOWS AND
HIGHS. THE OTHER SOLUTION BRINGS THE FRONT MUCH LATER...SOMETHING
LIKE SUN WHILE FRI/SAT WOULD BE RATHER SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL. ALL I CAN SAY IS WOW!

WHAT I WILL DO IS LEAVE THE FRI-SUN TIME FRAME ALONE AND HOPE FOR
SOME CONVERGENCE WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. STAY TUNED FOR
AT LEAST AN INTERESTING WEEKEND.