-40C 850mb line towards Maine with 468dm hgts Monday?????

[Valkhorn]

I'm looking at the latest runs and I'm wondering if the polar vortex swinging north of Maine by Monday is being underdone. The GFS is now showing -40C 850mb temps, and the Euro has consistently been giving off 500mb heights around 4750-4800 meters. The UKMET kicks it out and is done with it. Even the latest ETA 00z is showing a -40C 850mb temp, and heights as low as 468dm!



I'm really worried that this thing might have been underdone by the models lately and they weren't catching on to how shallow this air really might be. Some haven't brought it this far south either.

And all I can say is if that polar vortex phased with what was coming out of the gulf all hell would break loose... and I kind of wonder what's going to happen now that the models are catching on to a much deeper polar vortex a little further to the south...

Any comments?

[FLguy]

the problem is there is NO mechanisim (blocking wise) in the northern hemisphere that would allow the PV to drop into the lakes and phase with the energy coming through the STJ.

[Valkhorn]

Well, its on the GFS too, and I'm waiting on the next Euro and UKMET run...

See there's not enough blocking to send it to FL, but it doesn't need much to send it to where it's headed towards the tounge of the Hudson Bay.

With heights that low, you don't have to be directly underneath the polar vortex to get record lows. You don't even have to have calm winds either, Grand Forks, ND proved that a couple of weeks ago.

See most of the mets have been forecasting it to be very cold around New York and Boston, BUT they weren't considering a polar vortex anywhere near the 470's in heights, because as far as I remember it wasn't showing up in the model runs to be that strong.

Blocking would send the core of the cold air to the US. I see no reason for Blocking for the polar vortex to go as far south as 55-58N degrees Latitude. Remember that's not too far off to the latitude of the southern tip of Greenland.