Looks like an interesting start of the week! ;)

[Skywatch_NC]

According to the NWS:

Sunday:

Cloudy. Chance of rain...possibly a mix of rain and some sleet in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 40s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

Sunday Night:

Sleet likely early then snow likely before midnight. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches possible. Lows in the lower 20s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

And then Round #2:

Tuesday:

Cloudy. Chance of rain and snow. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Tuesday Night:

Cloudy. Chance of mixed rain and snow. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Wednesday:

Cloudy. Chance of snow in the morning. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

[Skywatch_NC]

Winter Weather Statement

Statement as of 3:00 PM EST on February 14, 2004

... A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for north central North Carolina for Sunday evening through Sunday night...

A vigorous storm system will move northeast across the Carolinas Sunday and Sunday night... while an intensifying low pressure center tracks northeast near the Carolina coast. Precipitation is expected to overspread central North Carolina from the southwest Sunday afternoon. Cold air Rushing in from the north will allow this precipitation to change over to mostly snow Sunday night... especially across north central North Carolina where the cold air will be deepest.

The Winter Storm Watch is roughly along and north of a line from Asheboro to Raleigh to Wilson. Snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible over the northeast Piedmont and northern coastal plain... including the Triangle area... Oxford... Henderson... Rocky Mount... and Roanoke Rapids. Farther west... 2 to 4 inches of snow may fall over the northwest Piedmont including The Triad... Burlington... and Roxboro.

There is a great deal of uncertainty regarding the precipitation amounts and the arrival time of the cold air. This system has the potential to produce concentrated areas of higher snowfall... with lesser amounts in other locations. It is too early to pinpoint exactly if and where any heavier amounts will fall.

Everyone across central North Carolina is urged to frequently check the latest forecasts and weather conditions during Sunday and Sunday night. Tune into NOAA Weather Radio or other local media... or view our website at weather.Gov.

[greg81988]

and thats not even mentioning the monster coming tuesday and wednesday. 3 to 6 inches will look like flurries to what is coming up next. i wouldnt be surprised to see nearly a foot come tuesday for n.c. and virginia.

[verycoolnin]

I live just north of the watch boxes. The latest ETA has atleast .5-.75 inches of liquid precip throughout all of SE VA and NE NC so if that hold true we'll pick up anywhere from 4-6 inches of snow.

An even larger system will affect the area on Tuesday.

NWS: Low pressure is expected to develop near the South Carolina coast Tuesday... then track northeast to just offshore Cape Hatteras by Tuesday evening. Moisture associated with this system will likely overspread the entire region during the day Tuesday. The airmass may remain sufficiently cold for snow or mixed precipitation over a large portion of the region... mainly across lower Eastern Shore and central and south central Virginia.

There is the potential for significant accumulations of snow and sleet before the precipitation ends Tuesday night. However... with this storm system still nearly 72 hours away... quite a bit of uncertainty remains in terms of the eventual storm track along with precipitation type and amounts. Therefore... it is too early to pinpoint possible snow accumulations. Stay tuned for the latest updates... as the event draws near.

[Skywatch_NC]

*UPDATE*

Sunday:

Cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon possibly mixed with sleet toward evening. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

Sunday Night:

Rain changing to sleet then snow. Snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Lows in the upper 20s. Brisk with northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Presidents Day:

Chance of light snow or flurries around daybreak then partly sunny. Cold. Highs in the mid 30s. North winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 30 percent early.

Monday Night:

Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming cloudy. Chance of rain or snow after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Tuesday:

Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Tuesday Night:

Cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 50 percent.

[Erica]

In many ways the system next week is similar to the January 25, 2002 Nor'easter.

Here is the MRF/GFS 500mb height analysis from 0z January 25, there are two critical features here, the first is the closed low South Carolina and corresponding negative tilted trough over the southeast.

The other is the northern stream energy digging into the midwest.



So what ended up happening was the Surface low associated with the negative tilted trough and closed low over the southeast was drawn back toward the coast and held there as the northern stream energy phased with it, then the low bombed out as it moved east northeast.



The pattern which lead to the January 2000 Nor'easter was quite complex. And, normally, very complex patterns do not favor major winter storms. If you look back at several of the Kocin storms over the past 50 years, many of them were the result of a non-compex and quite simple pattern.

The event this upcoming week may be a another example of when you can predict the track of the high you can predict the storm. But, with the complexity of the pattern nothing is a guarantee.

Though there are some things which we should not do. Don't get discouraged if one model run is completely different than the previous, it is probably a hiccup. Beware of unstable trends in the data, especially on the 06z and 18z runs. If a solution does not have other model support, or support from its ensemble members, it's less likely to be correct.

These are just some things to think about as we get closer to this event.