GGEM has SECS threat ...

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Stormsfury
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GGEM has SECS threat ...

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Feb 15, 2004 11:02 pm

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Erica
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#2 Postby Erica » Sun Feb 15, 2004 11:08 pm

It would be a SECS only for coastal areas. The best vertical motions are way offshore, and the heaviest precip only brushes coastal areas. It may be a 6 Inch or more storm for Cape Cod, Eastern Long Island, and Nantucket.
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#3 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Feb 15, 2004 11:26 pm

Yeah, not historic by any means, but a quick hitter ...

RGEM bares a better threat at 48 hours ...

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#4 Postby Erica » Sun Feb 15, 2004 11:35 pm

The surface low is just cloer to the coast, but the there isn't any closed low at 500mb, or 700mb, nor does the trough it's self have a strongly negative tilt. This is what you would want to see at 500mb and 700mb for the formation of a good deformation zone and strong vertical motions

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Double contour closed 500mb low and closed triple contour 700mb low. That was from the December 13-14 2002 event. that lead to some great vertical motions and intense frontogenesis mainly between 500 and 900mb (blue shading)

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