949
NOUS42 KWNO 160124
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NOAA/NWS/NCEP WASHINGTON DC
0120 UTC MON FEB 16 2004
160120Z...THE 00Z ETA MODEL STARTED ON TIME.
RAOBS...
TBW/72210 - EQUIP PBLM
RNK/72318 - EQUIP PBLM
TFX/72776 - EQUIP PBLM
BOI/72681 - UNAVB FOR ETA
OAK/72493 - DELETED WINDS 850-510MB...MUCH TOO STG
KNEAS/SDM/NCO/NCEP
NNNN
00z ETA outputs ... riddled with EQUIP Problems...
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Stormsfury
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Erica
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Re: 00z ETA outputs ... riddled with EQUIP Problems...
Stormsfury wrote:949
NOUS42 KWNO 160124
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NOAA/NWS/NCEP WASHINGTON DC
0120 UTC MON FEB 16 2004
160120Z...THE 00Z ETA MODEL STARTED ON TIME.
RAOBS...
TBW/72210 - EQUIP PBLM
RNK/72318 - EQUIP PBLM
TFX/72776 - EQUIP PBLM
BOI/72681 - UNAVB FOR ETA
OAK/72493 - DELETED WINDS 850-510MB...MUCH TOO STG
KNEAS/SDM/NCO/NCEP
NNNN
Humm, I was waiting to see if anyone would catch that. Nice job!
This is what I was talking about last night, I'm worried that the models may be having a problem with the progressive pattern, and the numerous shortwaves coming through the flow. I don't think were going to know for sure what's going on with the energy that will create the mid week Nor'easter until it gets into the plains tomorrow night, where RAOB coverage is the best. If the data then still shows a supressed track, then it's likely a miss for the I-95 corridor. But I dont think we should give up on it yet. If tomorrow evening, things look the same, then we will have to.
That is really poor UPA coverage, hopefully most of those problems will be corrected in time for the GFS. My advice would be to take the GFS solution tonight, especially if the data coverage is better with in comparison to the ETA.
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Cheesy_Poofs
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Stormsfury
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Stormsfury
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Erica
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GFS initialization wasn't great either.
858
FXUS10 KWNH 151723
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1222 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2004
VALID FEB 15/1200 UTC THRU FEB 18/0000 UTC
MODEL INITIALIZATION...
AFTER COMPARING WITH THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY...BOTH
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THEIR 500 MB INITIALIZATIONS IN
THE ERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN EITHER MODEL GIVEN THE RELATIVE LACK OF DATA AND RECENT
MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH MANY CHANGES MADE IN SUCCESSIVE
RUNS. OVER THE CONUS...NO MAJOR PROBLEMS NOTED WITH THE 500
MB ANALYSES ALTHOUGH THE ETA DOES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE TOO
HIGH WITH ITS HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST.
MODEL TRENDS...
SINCE YESTERDAY THE ETA HAS BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY FHR 24. THE GFS...WHILE MAINTAINING A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER TROF...ALSO REMAINS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH IT AS WELL.
WITH THE NEXT TROF AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY DURING DAY 2...THE LATEST ETA CONTINUES AN
ACCELERATING AND DEEPENING TREND THAT BEGAN WITH ITS 00Z/15
RUN. THE GFS HAS BEEN GETTING GRADUALLY DEEPER WITH THE
TROF AS WELL...BUT HAS SLOWED IT DOWN IN SUCCESSIVE RUNS. AT
THE SFC...THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING MUCH MORE OF A WWD SHIFT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE PSN OF THE COASTAL LOW BY FHR 60
THAN THE ETA.
BOTH MODELS HAVE BECOME QUITE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST ON DAY 2 AND HAVE ALSO TRENDED
A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW FCST TO
BE OFF THE NWRN BC COAST BY FHR 60. AT THE SFC...THE ETA HAS
SHOWN A LARGE CHANGE COMPARED WITH THE 12Z/14 RUN DURING
THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND NOW BRINGS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW INTO
NWRN CA MORE QUICKLY...THUS GREATLY INCREASING ITS QPF.
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
DIFFERENCES BECOME MAGNIFIED BY FHR 60 WITH THE LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. THE GFS IS INITIALLY FASTER THAN THE ETA WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE N-CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH THE
SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM FHR 24 THRU 48.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS ALSO TAKING SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY
FROM A FARTHER NORTH SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND FEEDING IT INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TO SLOW
DOWN...LEADING TO A DOUBLE-BARRELED TROF STRUCTURE AT FHR 60
INSTEAD OF A SHARPER TROF FARTHER TO THE WEST AS SEEN IN THE
ETA/UKMET/CANADIAN. THE RESULT IS A SFC LOW CLOSER TO THE NC
COAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS BUT NOT APPRECIABLY DEEPER
WITH THE CNTRL PRESSURE...IN FACT THE CANADIAN HAS A 1014 MB
LOW AT FHR 60 COMPARED WITH THE GFS WHICH IMPLIES A LOW JUST
UNDER 1020 MB. ATTM THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE
FASTER DEEPENING TREND IMPLIED BY THE GFS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AS FAR AS THE TRACK...FOR NOW THE RECOMMENDATION IS
TO LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE GFS TO TREND TOWARD THE
HPC DAY 3 PROG...WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THERE IS STILL THE
CHANCE OF A TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE PER OTHER
MODELS. WITH THAT SAID...THE CANADIAN APPEARS A LITTLE
SUSPECT BECAUSE ITS LOW PSN AT FHR 60 SEEMS TOO FAR EAST
GIVEN WHERE ITS TROF AXIS IS AT THAT TIME. IN SHORT...STAY
TUNED.
IN THE WEST...THE GFS IS FASTER TO BRING A SFC WAVE INTO NWRN
CA DURING DAY 1 THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GIVEN RECENT MODEL
CONFUSION IN THE ERN PACIFIC...ATTM WE WOULD RECOMMEND
GOING MORE WITH THE MAJORITY SOLUTION AND HAVING THIS WAVE
COME IN SLOWER. OTHERWISE IN GENERAL THE RECOMMENDATION
IS TO GO MORE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS. REFER TO THE QPFPFD
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED PCPN DISTRIBUTION OVER THE
WEST.
MAUSSER
MODEL BIASES AT http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
$$
858
FXUS10 KWNH 151723
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1222 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2004
VALID FEB 15/1200 UTC THRU FEB 18/0000 UTC
MODEL INITIALIZATION...
AFTER COMPARING WITH THE LATEST WV SATELLITE IMAGERY...BOTH
MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THEIR 500 MB INITIALIZATIONS IN
THE ERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN EITHER MODEL GIVEN THE RELATIVE LACK OF DATA AND RECENT
MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH MANY CHANGES MADE IN SUCCESSIVE
RUNS. OVER THE CONUS...NO MAJOR PROBLEMS NOTED WITH THE 500
MB ANALYSES ALTHOUGH THE ETA DOES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE TOO
HIGH WITH ITS HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST.
MODEL TRENDS...
SINCE YESTERDAY THE ETA HAS BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY FHR 24. THE GFS...WHILE MAINTAINING A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER UPPER TROF...ALSO REMAINS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH IT AS WELL.
WITH THE NEXT TROF AMPLIFYING OVER THE PLAINS AND LOWER MS
VALLEY DURING DAY 2...THE LATEST ETA CONTINUES AN
ACCELERATING AND DEEPENING TREND THAT BEGAN WITH ITS 00Z/15
RUN. THE GFS HAS BEEN GETTING GRADUALLY DEEPER WITH THE
TROF AS WELL...BUT HAS SLOWED IT DOWN IN SUCCESSIVE RUNS. AT
THE SFC...THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING MUCH MORE OF A WWD SHIFT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE PSN OF THE COASTAL LOW BY FHR 60
THAN THE ETA.
BOTH MODELS HAVE BECOME QUITE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST ON DAY 2 AND HAVE ALSO TRENDED
A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW FCST TO
BE OFF THE NWRN BC COAST BY FHR 60. AT THE SFC...THE ETA HAS
SHOWN A LARGE CHANGE COMPARED WITH THE 12Z/14 RUN DURING
THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND NOW BRINGS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW INTO
NWRN CA MORE QUICKLY...THUS GREATLY INCREASING ITS QPF.
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
DIFFERENCES BECOME MAGNIFIED BY FHR 60 WITH THE LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE GFS IS SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM THAN THE OTHER
MODELS. THE GFS IS INITIALLY FASTER THAN THE ETA WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE N-CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH THE
SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM FHR 24 THRU 48.
MEANWHILE THE GFS IS ALSO TAKING SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY
FROM A FARTHER NORTH SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND FEEDING IT INTO THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TO SLOW
DOWN...LEADING TO A DOUBLE-BARRELED TROF STRUCTURE AT FHR 60
INSTEAD OF A SHARPER TROF FARTHER TO THE WEST AS SEEN IN THE
ETA/UKMET/CANADIAN. THE RESULT IS A SFC LOW CLOSER TO THE NC
COAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS BUT NOT APPRECIABLY DEEPER
WITH THE CNTRL PRESSURE...IN FACT THE CANADIAN HAS A 1014 MB
LOW AT FHR 60 COMPARED WITH THE GFS WHICH IMPLIES A LOW JUST
UNDER 1020 MB. ATTM THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE
FASTER DEEPENING TREND IMPLIED BY THE GFS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AS FAR AS THE TRACK...FOR NOW THE RECOMMENDATION IS
TO LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE GFS TO TREND TOWARD THE
HPC DAY 3 PROG...WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THERE IS STILL THE
CHANCE OF A TRACK SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE PER OTHER
MODELS. WITH THAT SAID...THE CANADIAN APPEARS A LITTLE
SUSPECT BECAUSE ITS LOW PSN AT FHR 60 SEEMS TOO FAR EAST
GIVEN WHERE ITS TROF AXIS IS AT THAT TIME. IN SHORT...STAY
TUNED.
IN THE WEST...THE GFS IS FASTER TO BRING A SFC WAVE INTO NWRN
CA DURING DAY 1 THAN THE OTHER MODELS. GIVEN RECENT MODEL
CONFUSION IN THE ERN PACIFIC...ATTM WE WOULD RECOMMEND
GOING MORE WITH THE MAJORITY SOLUTION AND HAVING THIS WAVE
COME IN SLOWER. OTHERWISE IN GENERAL THE RECOMMENDATION
IS TO GO MORE WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS. REFER TO THE QPFPFD
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE EXPECTED PCPN DISTRIBUTION OVER THE
WEST.
MAUSSER
MODEL BIASES AT http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
$$
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
-
Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 53
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
Erica wrote:yea, good model data is so had to come by. Huh?
yeah ...
NCEP status message ...
NOUS42 KWNO 160251
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NOAA/NWS/NCEP WASHINGTON DC
0250 UTC TUE FEB 16 2004
160250Z...THE 00Z ETA MODEL PRODUCTION RUNNING ON TIME.
RAOBS UPDATE...
BOI/72681 - NO REPORT RECEIVED FOR GFS.
FYI...THE NOAA G-IV FROM ANC AND A USAFR C-130 FROM HNL ARE
FLYING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC IN SUPPORT OF THE WSR PROGRAM
THIS EVE. NUMEROUS DROPSONDE REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FOR
THE 00Z NCEP MODELS.
BUREK/SDM/NCO/NCEP
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Stormsfury
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