06z GFS further north

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Cheesy_Poofs
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06z GFS further north

#1 Postby Cheesy_Poofs » Fri Feb 20, 2004 6:57 am

Image
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#2 Postby Anonymous » Fri Feb 20, 2004 7:01 am

Looking, good, but let's not get it too far north...
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#3 Postby yoda » Fri Feb 20, 2004 7:43 am

Taken at face value... without checking the 500mb heights and the 850 temps... that run would suggest QPF values of 1-1.5 over VA..... which IF IF IF IF IF it were to be right (we could only hope....) that's 12"+ for D.C. South to Richmond... :eek: :eek: :jump:

Hey Jedi Master Jeb, look at this!! :jump: :crazyeyes:
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#4 Postby Heady Guy » Fri Feb 20, 2004 8:42 am

I would not get to excited. If the models show a more north trend in the next few days, then we can talk. Still looks to be a supressed sytem to me.
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#5 Postby yoda » Fri Feb 20, 2004 8:45 am

Hey, I know its 6 days away... but still the QPf values in the MA are :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes: :crazyeyes:

It has been said that some of the ensembles and the GGEM/Canadian model give you some big snows too Heady Guy...
COULD THIS BE THE STORM????? PLEASE!?!?!

BRING IT ON!!!
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#6 Postby JCT777 » Fri Feb 20, 2004 9:20 am

Heady Guy - I agree that it is best to wait a few days to see what things look like before getting overly excited. Still, it is something to keep an eye on.
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#7 Postby Tip » Fri Feb 20, 2004 10:19 am

Hpc says----> throw out the 06Z run, too amplified.

THE MORE AMPLIFIED 06 UTC GFS WAS DISCOUNTED DUE TO
RESERVATIONS OVER THE VALIDITY OF MID-ATLC STREAM PHASING BY
MIDWEEK CONSIDERING SMALLER SCALE SYSTEM UNCERTAINTY
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#8 Postby JCT777 » Fri Feb 20, 2004 12:52 pm

Tip - then they will need to throw away the 12z GFS as well. I am just wondering if this (more northerly solution) is beginning to become a trend. Here's hoping.
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#9 Postby Tip » Fri Feb 20, 2004 1:08 pm

With the 12z GFS and GGEM info, the HPC will have to change the tone of the final extended outlook.
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#10 Postby Heady Guy » Fri Feb 20, 2004 1:10 pm

Iam still going witha supressed event. To big of a change with the GFS in the last run.
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#11 Postby yoda » Fri Feb 20, 2004 1:13 pm

I understand.... I am throwing out the 12z GFS... but I like the trend though....

A suppressed solution?!?!? We will see... But I doubt it!
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#12 Postby Craig286 » Fri Feb 20, 2004 1:13 pm

This looks like an amazing MECS, but just be VERY careful people so you dont get your hearts broken like has happened many a' time this year. If it goes further north is could be just rain for us...

This GFS is rather hot though :D :D

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _132.shtml
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#13 Postby yoda » Fri Feb 20, 2004 1:17 pm

Yes, I know.... :lol: :lol:

If it were to go even 200 miles north... we would still see snow... like 1"
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#14 Postby Heady Guy » Fri Feb 20, 2004 1:18 pm

I have been burned to many times in the past. IF this is still showing on Sunday, then we can talk.
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#15 Postby yoda » Fri Feb 20, 2004 1:19 pm

Alright Heady Guy.... I agree... but we shall see...

IF THIS IS STILL HERE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY... LOOK OUT!
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#16 Postby Stephanie » Fri Feb 20, 2004 1:21 pm

yoda wrote:Yes, I know.... :lol: :lol:

If it were to go even 200 miles north... we would still see snow... like 1"


I'm alittle concerned about that warm air just off shore from the Delmarva - it's biten us in the butt before!
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#17 Postby yoda » Fri Feb 20, 2004 1:23 pm

I hope you get some BIG snows from this storm too Stephanie!!!

IF IT MATERIALIZES AND STAYS THE COURSE...
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