12z Sat GFS/ETA on Midweek System

[Anonymous]

The latest runs of the American models have some major differences in their depictions of the upcoming potential storm. The 12z ETA, which of course only goes out to 84hrs, is showing a very unfavorable solution, with the STJ shortwave still holding back over TX while the PJ shortwave has already made it to the Northeast... IMO phasing will probably not occur, or occur too late.




The GFS, on the other hand, looks a hell of a lot better at the same time period. It looks as if phasing is getting underway and it will probably lead to a significant event at least as far north of Washington DC... we'll find out for sure in a few minutes.



This is an interesting situation as the differences between the two above maps are pretty large, yet this isn't a 7-day forecast... they are valid Tuesday night. Going to be an exciting couple of days.

[Cheesy_Poofs]

[Anonymous]

Yep Cheesy, another run with a historic MECS, with the DC area right in the bullseye... looks like a 15-25" storm per this run. Nice to look at, but I have a very bad gut feeling that this is going to be a washout come Wednesday.

[Cheesy_Poofs]

We'll see....if it were a washout, with the kind of QPF the GFS is spitting out, I would be depressed for at least a week.

[Heady Guy]

I washout would very heart breaking.

[WXBUFFJIM]

The key is the timing and the amount of cold air available with this system on top of the projected track. If GFS is correct, the mid atlantic could get nailed from DC through Philly and possibly even further north and east into New York and Boston. GFS brings this precip into DC and Baltimore at nightfall Wednesday and it lasts all night Wednesday night into Thursday morning. During the night time hours, temps cool to their minimum and there's no solar radiation to benefit the roads. So wednesday night could get real interesting.

We have several days to watch this though.

Jim

[Anonymous]

I found this pretty funny... we get buried with a crippling snowstorm and 2 days later the weather map looks like this...

[Superstorm]

Yep, we could get hit, possibly hard, but this definately ain't sticking around. 50 day before, and 50 the day after?

[Chris the Weather Man]

YIKES........... LOOKS TO BE Winter will be over for some time........ THEN Lets hope for 1997...