Once again the models say no Big Storm...

[ezweather]

Here I am looking at the models at 11:18 this evening and once again, the same old story. I'm not getting just totally annoyed , but down right fed up. The GFS for instance is building a major storm that will impact Northwest US within 72 hours. Now we have to see a big large storm hit the Pacific Northwest and nothing here in the East. Am I surprised about this development? Look at the European solution...Hey, this model has been superb this winter and the past several years. Just check out how it showed the blizzard last year. But back to the present, this this whole winter has been an absolute zero in terms of big snow storms. I can just hear Bastardi make another spin about the what ifs. Thats why I don't bother to read any of it. The sad part, there are some good hearted folks out there that read that stuff and its a shame. He always live for the extremes. Joe B may know how to speak meteorology, but he sometimes can add chaos to this overload in data we have today. If your a snow lover, you'll go looking for answers that takes the edge off or at least provides some hope. Can't we just have model consensus on a major storm in the East for several days. Well, tonight its painfally honest. The European has hinted toward a more suppressed system. Even the ensembles don't get me excited. There has been no dominance in the telleconnection indices to say big storm in the East for snow in the Mid-Atlantic. Yeh, we got plenty of cold, especially in January, but hardly a storm or storms that brought a lot of snow.

So, where does this pattern take us in the future. Well, I know the 00z model runs paint a scenario that totally sucks, but let's see if this truely is a trend. As a forecaster, I have to be objective, but for once, can't we get a major storm for the East this week. But, hey, we did get that blizzard last year. So, I guess we are coming back to earth with how winters usually go. I'm getting close to saying, its time for Spring, but as soon as I say that, winter makes big return.

So, thats my two cents worth. Boy Friday looked so promosing, but as these models get newer data, it simply tells us that the conditions are not favorable yet. Boy, that almost sounds like the tropical outlook. Until we see these models show it, it's just no going to happen. As far as AccuWeather and other folks that want to do what ifs or that 10% chance, be careful, because thats when you put your credibility on the line. You have to gather the facts or something concrete that has that answer. The one thing this winter has shown us is that its been hard to generate any major snow storm along the East Coast to generate heavy snow. So, why is the upcoming week any different.

Alrighty, enough of my soap box here, but just wanted to write some tonight. Now, I can move on with the rest of tonight.

[NJSnowFreak]

the models say stick a fork in it....

but since we're 3-5 days out I'd say there's still hope....but not much...

[Anonymous]

Dude, my mouth is watering looking at that plump juicy savory Turkey!!!

I am HUNGRY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


-Jeb

[cjh034]

"Look at the European solution...Hey, this model has been superb this winter"

Huh????......not this year...maybe last year.

[Chris the Weather Man]

"Look at the European solution...Hey, this model has been superb this winter"

Huh????......not this year...maybe last year.

Superb? Not as Great as Last year..........

[Anonymous]

Yep, this has been one hell of a frustrating winter. The worst thing will be if we end up with a cool and wet spring after all this... we just can't seem to win here in the Mid Atlantic. After getting a taste of spring the other day with highs near 60, I'm really pulling for this big warmup the models are showing starting next weekend.

Regardless of what spring brings us, though, I think it's time to say goodbye to the winter of 2003-2004 in the Mid Atlantic region... our only hope would be a stormier/colder pattern developing sometime after March 5 or so, I guess.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Yes Brett..... Perhaps, HM's MECS/SECS will be back in March.........

[Cheesy_Poofs]

Yes Brett..... Perhaps, HM's MECS/SECS will be back in March.........

Not according to DT.

[Guest]

I guess im alone here now because i am not giving up just yet! These models stick with this solution thru the 12z and tomorrow nights 00z then i will call it quits.

[Lowpressure]

I say stick a fork in it too. This is the same way models have performed all winter. They overhype the forecast only to back off considerably if not totally as it gets closer. I also agree on the JOE B comments. All winter it has been hype over major scenarios that rarely pan out.

[Cheesy_Poofs]

I guess im alone here now because i am not giving up just yet! These models stick with this solution thru the 12z and tomorrow nights 00z then i will call it quits.

Nope, you're not alone. I'm really close to throwing in the towel, but I will wait until 00z runs tonight. I admit, I was throwing in the towel last night, because I was just mad/sad after seeing the 00z runs. But, this morning, I finally rememberd that things COULD change, so I'm holding on to a little hope.

[Anonymous]

I guess im alone here now because i am not giving up just yet! These models stick with this solution thru the 12z and tomorrow nights 00z then i will call it quits.

Nope, you're not alone. I'm really close to throwing in the towel, but I will wait until 00z runs tonight. I admit, I was throwing in the towel last night, because I was just mad/sad after seeing the 00z runs. But, this morning, I finally rememberd that things COULD change, so I'm holding on to a little hope.

FWIW, the 12z ETA is giving us a 2-4" event tomorrow night into Tuesday with the clipper-type system associated with the PJ shortwave. When all else fails, another day off school can always cheer us up in this winter of wasted cold .

[Chris the Weather Man]

Well, RECORD COLD HERE... Jan Temp avg was 22.1F!

[Cheesy_Poofs]

I guess im alone here now because i am not giving up just yet! These models stick with this solution thru the 12z and tomorrow nights 00z then i will call it quits.

Nope, you're not alone. I'm really close to throwing in the towel, but I will wait until 00z runs tonight. I admit, I was throwing in the towel last night, because I was just mad/sad after seeing the 00z runs. But, this morning, I finally rememberd that things COULD change, so I'm holding on to a little hope.

FWIW, the 12z ETA is giving us a 2-4" event tomorrow night into Tuesday with the clipper-type system associated with the PJ shortwave. When all else fails, another day off school can always cheer us up in this winter of wasted cold .

Not sure about Loudon, but Howard doesn't close with 2". 4" on the other hand...means no school! We'll see...

Even though we didn't get all that much snow, I'll remember this winter. The first winter I was actually able to read models.

[Barnaby]

Not sure about Loudon, but Howard doesn't close with 2". 4" on the other hand...means no school! We'll see...

Even though we didn't get all that much snow, I'll remember this winter. The first winter I was actually able to read models.

Keep up the good work. Next winter, I'll expect you to help me keep the other board up to date.