Postmortem on The Storm of '04

[sphinx]

An emotional rollercoaster for the DC area and for Richmond. Richmond probably has a big storm every 5 years. Two have been predicted in the medium range in the last 10 days. DC has one every two- to three-years.

Wednesday: EURO and GGEM hint at the possibility of a coastal.

Thursday: EURO bullish. GFS still suppressed. GGEM shows a slow moving coastal. Chance of R/S added to DC forecast.

Friday 06Z. GFS phases storm. HPCC discounts model run. Doubts phasing will occur.
Friday 12Z. GFS stronger still. HPCC buys into ominous GFS solution. Confidence termed relatively high. Several other models including the UKMET and GGEM also predict big storm.
Friday aft. Sterling and Wakefield don't buy ominous solution. Suprisingingly change forecast to chance of rain. Predict storm will be suppressed southward. ETA-extended also suppresses storm.
Friday 18Z. GFS still has phasing. Bit weaker. Chance of R/S added to forecast for DC
Friday evening: Ironically, when confidence was highest the EURO was spinning and by evening the results indicated a suppressed storm. Doubts grow. STORM2K consensus is that EURO "hiccupped". Called an outlier.
Saturday 00Z. GFS a bit suppressed. Richmond hit. DC missed.
Saturday 06Z. GFS phases. HPCC suggests mod/heavy snow likely for portion of midAtlantic.
Saturday 12Z. GFS still phased; however, event delayed. HPCC suggests heavy snow likely for portion of midAtlantic. In passing they note that all 12 ensembles are suppressed. Suggests confidence is lower than Friday. Depression.
Saturday aft. Sterling puts out special WX statement. Significant snow possible on Wednesday. Grey buys phased system with reservations.
Saturday 18Z. GFS suppressed. My hope fades rapidly. Virtual storm now 84 hours way. Within 84 hours, IMO model changes are usually trends and not realizations of an ensemble of possibilities.
Sunday 00Z. GFS more suppressed.
Sunday 06Z. GFS hopelessly suppressed. ETA suppressed.
Sunday 12Z. All models hopelessly suppressed. Northern stream system too quick. Light snow in the mountains of North Carolina?

Sunday evening. STORM2K poster has the heart to peek at the EURO. Suggests that story is not over yet.

[JCT777]

Nice synopsis of the "storm that could've been". There's still March - and if that doesn't pan out - there's always next winter.

[Lowpressure]

That about covers our entire winter here, expectation followed by let down.

[Kelly]

I'd like to know when everyone is going to understand that we can't have a 1995-96 or 2002-03 every winter. But on another note, we shouldin't give up on the March potential.

[JCT777]

Kelly - that is completely understood. But as cold as it has been in my area this winter, it is surprising that I have not had more snow. In the last 10 weeks (basically, since Dec 6) - I have had a grand total of 11 inches of snow. And only a coating since January 28 (nearly 4 weeks).

And you know that a true snow-lover can never get enough!

I am still hopeful that March will deliver a surprise.

[Anonymous]

We realize that not every winter here is going to be a '96 or '03; however, there was a tremendous amount of hype back in late December about all the snow in February.

That said, all is forgiven, I am already caught up BAD in tracking the spring weather and am wading into my many other Web projects, one of which is a community gone very very BAD in ezboards LOL! There, well, you can liken me to Chief Brody of Shark City. Oh I don't know what I'm gonna do, the community has 145 members and I don't wanna get rid of it LOL, but gosh, it just slid way south all winter!!!!!

Oh by the way, we are progged for the mid 70s this weekend!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No snow expected here............HELLO, SPRING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



-Jeb