February Forecast

[donsutherland1]

As many here can recall, I had stated that I believed that there would be above normal to much above normal snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States. Unfortunately, I was wrong.

The month began with a potent pattern (active Southern Jet and abundant cold air) that failed to generate a significant east coast snowstorm. The latter half saw a rapidly developing snowstorm just miss the eastern U.S. en route to burying New Brunswick and Nova Scotia under 24"-36" of snow. The month neared an end with another major storm bury parts of the lower Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

Thus, the forecasting failure was not due to a lack of prospective snowstorms but rather that the storms that developed affected areas other than the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Hence, even though the idea of storminess was a good one, the area targeted for snowfall was incorrect. In short, the snowfall forecast was incorrect.

[BritBob]

Don, I bet you`ll find these pics worthy of your galleries? Britain finally getting some decent snow!

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weathe ... 1&ARCHIVE=

[Chris the Weather Man]

Bob, Post phots on whats happening in NF and Labrador!

[BritBob]

Hi Don,

For me, February certainly proved a more mobile month than January, which as we all know was dominated by the artic high.

I was expecting more east coast storms than we got to be honest though. The setup began perfect, but there was just no seeding of storms, nothing coming up from the south. Only last week did we get our first real winter storm since early December.

I am still also expecting March to be a mobile month, but then as is always at that time of year, the risk of the dreaded freezing rain edges nearer.

[Stephanie]

Actually don, it was stormy here in the MidAtlantic but it was in the form of rain. We just didn't have the huge pool of extremely cold air that we had in January to get them changed to a full-fledged snowstorm. The lower MidAtlantic and SE storm from last week was a fluke - lucky for them!

[donsutherland1]

Bob,

Those are great photos. Thanks for referring me to them. It's great to see that Britain is receiving some snow. I also received an e-mail from a close friend in Germany and she reported that parts of Germany have also been seeing snow.

Best wishes.

[donsutherland1]

I agree with you Stephanie. Still the forecast was wrong.

With regard to the lower Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, it was good to see that region get at great snowstorm, as such storms there are quite rare.

[Lehigh]

I see one more snow event coming to our area this month.

It will be a small one but we may see another inch or two before it is all said and done.

[WEATHER53]

Don, Thanks for doing your assessment. I have asked for same over at the other board and really no one, other than me, has been willing to provide a post game assessment. Our winter outlook called for 12-15" of snow at DCA and with the 12.4 that rates an A+ but we did call for milder than normal temps for the average of the three months and that did not pan out so sort of a split decision but I think for DC metro the tiebreaker is that the snow trumps the temps.

[Guest]

Only thing i can imagine why not many others have offered much more input on this 53 is because some like myself may be waiting for March 20 or so to do that which is the calendar end of winter by that time.

As a whole right now my winter outlook is doing pretty good. However it has its areas where its a bit off especially in the snowfall dept for places such as my own and alot of others here in the OV and parts of the Midwest. Elsewhere i am not as far off across the USA.

Either way it still has about 3 weeks for things to work out a little better here in these parts. And by the looks of things i may get my chance come next week as what could be the last shot of artic/cold air comes in with some possible storminess here in the OV over towards the eastcoast (More so MA on north).

[Chris the Weather Man]

March 1958... Would be NICE..............