March 2004: Winter Cold at Onset; Spring Warmth at the End

[donsutherland1]

In terms of temperatures, it appears that the <b>February outlook</b> fared well for the most part. However, as the hourglass was emptying on the month, the above to much above normal snowfall had not yet materialized. Still, there was some model support for a possible significant to major storm, so it is too soon to close the proverbial book on the February 2004 outlook.

Of course, I can hear the peals of laughter from the "no snow" crowd. However, February has not yet ended, so at least some of the I-95 Corridor, especially its snow-starved stretch from Richmond to Washington, DC may yet reap a bumper crop of snow that would put those cities above normal for the monthly and seasonal snowfall and partially salvage the February snowfall ideas.

With respect to March, Emily Dickinson once wrote:

<I>March is the month of expectation,
The things we do not know…”</I>

After a winter that proved memorable in the Washington, DC to Boston region, first for an early December blizzard that buried the northern Mid-Atlantic to New England and then one of the coldest Januaries on record, there is much expectation as to what March might have in store. Snow geese expect—even demand—more snow. Those who love the spring, expect the arrival of warmth followed by the emergence of crocuses and the return of migratory birds.

Based on a review of the evolution of past synoptic patterns similar to the current one, both groups will likely find some satisfaction. Snow geese stand a strong chance of seeing accumulations of 3” or more throughout the Washington DC to Boston area. As a wildcard, Boston could see substantially more.

Such monthly snowfall would not be extreme relative to climatology. In terms of climatology, Boston has as good a chance at seeing a snowstorm of 10 cm (4”) or more in March as in February. In New York City, the probability is almost 15% less. In Washington, DC the odds are almost 30% less. In terms of seeing snowstorms bringing 25 cm (10”) or more, Boston’s probability of seeing such a storm is 55% less than in February; New York City’s chances are 75% less than in February; Washington DC’s prospects are almost 60% less than in February (Kocin and Uccellini, <I>Snowstorms Along The Northeastern Coast of the United States</I>).

One should bear in mind that even when March sees mild readings, there can be periods when it is sufficiently cold to snow. For example, with respect to March 1821, which followed a particularly severe winter, early 19th century historian James Macauley observed, “The weather was mild throughout March, but there were some heavy falls of snow.”

Back to today. In addition to those who cherish winter weather, those longing for spring-like warmth stand a good chance at seeing the month close with balmy breezes that will melt the memories of Winter 2003-04’s cold.

However, with its reputation for being unpredictable, there may be much that we will not know about March until the month ultimately charts its own course.

The first week will likely see the famed lions of March roar. A potentially major storm could affect parts of the Eastern Seaboard, bringing accumulating snow from the lower Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. There is some analog support for a suppressed storm during this timeframe, so one will need to be wary of New England being deprived of the best snows from such a storm. Temperatures that week could average below to much below normal even if they begin at above normal levels. Winter will likely “win” this week.

Nevertheless, winter will not maintain a stranglehold on the month. Moderation is likely to be the rule after what will likely be a generally cold and possibly snowy opening week. There could be continued storminess but it appears that the big cities of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will not likely see a significant snowfall during the following week.

Around the vernal Equinox give or take a few days, if past analogs bear out, Winter 2003-04 could stage a “Battle of the Bulge” initiative. Thus a brief period of unseasonable cold along with accumulating snow could result. Nevertheless, per analogs of similar patterns, following this brief and possibly fierce wintry counterattack, the forces of spring will likely renew their advance, driving winter into Canada.

In fact, there is strong analog support for readings in the East to be running above to possibly much above normal in the closing days of the March.

<b>Weekly Breakdown for the Washington, DC to Boston Region: </b>

<b>March 1-7:</b> Much below normal to below normal temperatures with the Mid-Atlantic region seeing larger anomalies than the Northeast; Below normal to near normal precipitation.
<b>March 8-14:</b> Near normal temperatures; Near normal to above normal precipitation.
<b>March 15-21:</b> Near normal to above normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation.
<b>March 22-28:</b> Near normal to above normal temperatures; Near normal to above normal precipitation in the Northeast; Below normal to near normal precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic region.
<b>March 29-31:</b> Above to much above normal temperatures; Above normal precipitation in the Northeast; Near normal precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic region.

All said, expect near normal monthly readings in this region except for Washington, D.C. where temperatures will likely run somewhat below normal. Precipitation should be somewhat below normal in Washington, DC but near normal elsewhere. New England could see near normal to somewhat above normal precipitation.

<b>Nationwide Summary for March:</b>

<b>Central Plains:</b> Near normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation.
<b>Mid-Atlantic:</b> Somewhat below normal temperatures; Somewhat below normal precipitation.
<b>Northeast:</b> Near normal temperatures; Near normal to somewhat above normal precipitation.
<b>Northern Plains:</b> Above normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation.
<b>Ohio Valley:</b> Near normal temperatures; Below normal precipitation.
<b>Pacific Northwest:</b> Near normal to above normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation.
<b>Southern Plains:</b> Below normal temperatures; Much below normal precipitation.
<b>Southeast:</b> Below normal temperatures; Near normal to above normal precipitation.
<b>Southwest:</b> Near normal temperatures; Near normal precipitation.

In conclusion, the old adage, ‘In like a lion, out like a lamb,’ appears appropriate for what may well lie ahead in the coming month for the eastern United States.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Don, I am hoping for March 1960....... ( Or an April Blizzard.. Like 1997

[donsutherland1]

I share those sentiments, Chris.

[JQ Public]

looks to be a normal march i guess?!

[Chris the Weather Man]

Yes, To me........

[molecules]

Nice discussion.....March can always have tricks up it's sleeve.

[donsutherland1]

JQ Public,

In the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, I believe March will come out close to normal. In North Carolina, I believe readings will finish somewhat below normal and the month could see near normal precipitation.

[donsutherland1]

Molecules,

Thanks for the kind words. I agree that March can be a difficult one to forecast. Adding to the uncertainty this March will be the likely situation that the QBO has turned west.

[donsutherland1]

Chris,

March should be fairly normal where you live in NW NJ. There will be some opportunities for snow.

As for the midweek storm, it appears that it will largely impact the lower Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Nevertheless, it could at least boost monthly snowfall above normal as far north as Richmond, if everything works out--maybe a little farther north.

For Philadelphia to Boston, the February idea on snowfall looks rather bleak especially as the warming trend that was highlighted for the final week in February now looks increasingly likely following the midweek storm on some of the modeling. The lead system may bring some lightsnowfall to Baltimore, Philadelphia, and NYC (including parts of NW NJ).

That warmup should be transient and colder weather should return following next weekend/the beginning of next week.

Nonetheless, the snowfall setback in the February forecast is a major disappointment, especially as it comes in sharp contrast to the success of the January ideas with respect to the cold.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Yes, Don.... I live 20 miles west of NYC. and I gotta say, What a sad Feb, No snow........ only 1 inch.... ( Well, Lets Hope for 1997) Ya never know...... 25 inches in Boston........ AMAZING FOR APRIL

[Stephanie]

We've had some big snowstorms in March, but quite frankly, once it turns to March 1, I don't want anymore snow, just Spring. However, that's not my call. I was hoping that this coming storm would be the the "cap" to the winter season (and provide a snowday), but as the month has consistently shown, it was pretty much a tease. I have light snow in the forecast for Tuesday.

Thanks Don, SF, Erica, KOW and everyone else that have put in their two cents or more on this season's weather. I know I've learned so much.

[Chris the Weather Man]

We've had some big snowstorms in March, but quite frankly, once it turns to March 1, I don't want anymore snow, just Spring. However, that's not my call. I was hoping that this coming storm would be the the "cap" to the winter season (and provide a snowday), but as the month has consistently shown, it was pretty much a tease. I have light snow in the forecast for Tuesday.

Thanks Don, SF, Erica, KOW and everyone else that have put in their two cents or more on this season's weather. I know I've learned so much.

Well Steph, Well all want spring ( Would love to see another 25 inches of snow before winter is done)

[weatherfan]

Great post Don.I think it must be stated that while alot are frustreated about the storms not really shapeing up as forecased.It has been in alot of ways just as frustreateing forecasting it this winter. With so many conflicting storms and weather patterns.It has been to be honest one of these winters where its been harder to really forecasts on.Veris last year was easer.As the historect snow storm we had in Febuary was called on by some people Months in avance.

But then again you have to look at the big picture of things.Last winter timing work out well.For storms to phase and bring heavey snow fall in most of the middle Alantic and Northeast.However this year exceap for the December storm.Timing has been anything but perfect and with the PJ so active this year in resonse of the strong east QBO phase it has made it diffacult to sustaned a real PNA rige this year.And this the lack of phaseing events this year.We are now going Westery in the QBO.But one could argure that we may have swich to late to really be promiseing for the remainder of the winter.All those if it did singer a cold start of March that would be a point in HM faver as he has went on about possableys of a Big dog.But it just something we have to wrait and see.As the case this winter.It looks good on paper.But when its time for the events they fall apart or there mostey rain.Or supressed.Just one of these winters.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, Weatherfan.

There certainly have been some difficult forecasting periods. The end of January into February saw a potentially promising pattern do very little. Although storminess has been somewhat difficult to forecast with respect to whether or not significant snowfalls would result--for most in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, they have not--the temperature ideas have been much more predictable.

As far as I can tell, the first week of March should see cold return to the East with temperatures averaging below seasonal norms even if the month begins mild. I believe an important cold front will push off the coast sometime in the February 29-March 2 timeframe, possibly preceded by a brief period of much above normal temperatures. If one is looking for a possible storm, the March 3-5 timeframe looks feasible per analogs noted in the March forecast thread and teleconnections. Let's see what happens.

[JQ Public]

Thanks Don

[weatherfan]

Another thing Don is that looking at some anlogs when QBO swich from east to west in feb-March some of them accually did support early springs.Which was accaully one of HM possableys.And then he looked at some other anlogs and found big time negative NAO and possableys of a cold frist hafe of March.But giving what we are seeing he likey sould have stayed with his first possabley an early spring.Because its likey going to turn into being more of the right ideal verser the cold and snowey part.But any way.I think what we have learned this winter is that your not going to get a winter like 96 and 2003.And winters with Nurture ENSO with strong eastery QBO are bound to be frustreating winter in forecasting and if your a snow fan.

Some people are all ready wanting to know about next winter lol.My word of avice let get this winter spring and summer and fall over with.But the things we need to watch is El nino eather it forms.Because it we did get al el nino this summer or early fall.The QBO would be in a west phase by then.And Historley El nino West winters trend to be the ones that are the most coldest and snowest.But that another year and for another time. P.S HM is back and gave me a bit of hope for one more bout of winter in March.So we will see and just relax and enjoy what ever comes our way.

[donsutherland1]

Weatherfan,

You are right concerning the QBO switch, especially in the absence of the emergence of an El Nino. Nevertheless, I still believe March 2004 will have its wintry moments and, if one city is to experience much above normal snowfall, it will likely be Boston. Some snowfall will probably occur from DCA northward.

I fully agree that not every winter can be like 1995-96 and 2003-04. Those were fantastic winters, with the former being mythical in nature due to its prodigious snowfall.

Still, 2003-04 did have its share of highlights:

• An early December blizzard in the Northeast
• Two 10" or more snowstorms in NYC
• One of the coldest Januaries on record with four subzero nights in Boston
• A tremendous lake effect snow event in Oswego County
• A snow and icestorm in Seattle and Portland
• A major blizzard in parts of eastern Canada

With respect to Winter 2004-05, I believe it is far too soon to speculate. Already, NYC has seen consecutive winters with 30" or greater snowfall for the first time since Winters 1959-60 and 1960-61. The last time it had three consecutive winters with 30" or more of snowfall was during the Winters 1945-46 - 1948-49 stretch. In other words, odds lie against such high snowfall in NYC next winter but if we have an El Nino-West winter, it could happen (the average for such winters in NYC is 34.1" with 50% seeing more than 40"). Nonetheless, there are two such winters with less than 20" (1987-88 and 1994-95, with the latter seeing just 11.8").

[Erica]

Another thing Don is that looking at some anlogs when QBO swich from east to west in feb-March some of them accually did support early springs.Which was accaully one of HM possableys.And then he looked at some other anlogs and found big time negative NAO and possableys of a cold frist hafe of March.But giving what we are seeing he likey sould have stayed with his first possabley an early spring.Because its likey going to turn into being more of the right ideal verser the cold and snowey part.But any way.I think what we have learned this winter is that your not going to get a winter like 96 and 2003.And winters with Nurture ENSO with strong eastery QBO are bound to be frustreating winter in forecasting and if your a snow fan.

Some people are all ready wanting to know about next winter lol.My word of avice let get this winter spring and summer and fall over with.But the things we need to watch is El nino eather it forms.Because it we did get al el nino this summer or early fall.The QBO would be in a west phase by then.And Historley El nino West winters trend to be the ones that are the most coldest and snowest.But that another year and for another time. P.S HM is back and gave me a bit of hope for one more bout of winter in March.So we will see and just relax and enjoy what ever comes our way.

The only way to get anywhere close to a correct forecast for next winter you would need to accurately forecast the summer pattern and tropical season. Others such as JB have analog methods which they use to try to forecast the following winter before the summer pattern shows it's self, and tropical season even starts, but the only real skillful way is to see the result from at least the first half of the tropical season, and especially the summer patterns. Otherwise the risk involved, and margin for error is too high.

[donsutherland1]

On February 23, I had noted: <i>...the first week of March should see cold return to the East with temperatures averaging below seasonal norms even if the month begins mild. I believe an important cold front will push off the coast sometime in the February 29-March 2 timeframe, possibly preceded by a brief period of much above normal temperatures. If one is looking for a possible storm, the March 3-5 timeframe looks feasible per analogs noted in the March forecast thread and teleconnections.</i>

It appears that my ideas of almost two weeks ago were roughly 3-5 days too fast. Nonetheless, the actual developments--brief period of much above normal temperatures followed by cold frontal passage followed by a storm--have materialized (temperatures and frontal passage) or appear imminent (storm).

In short, the timing is somewhat off but things are evolving as they should, just somewhat later. So beyond the coming week and weekend, I believe that moderating temperatures should be the rule. Finally, I believe that the timing differences might actually narrow as the month progresses per some of the ensemble data.